-
Laughing to Keep From Crying
May 17, 2013 | 1 comment
-
I’m Melting, Melting!
May 16, 2013 | 5 comments
-
Delaware’s Unclaimed Property Racket: John Gotti Would Be Proud
May 16, 2013 | 1 comment
-
Rep. Cleaver: GOP Concerns with IRS Due to Obama’s Skin Color
May 16, 2013 | 9 comments
-
Lawsuit Accuses IRS of Stealing Medical Records of 10 Million Americans
May 15, 2013 | 3 comments
The Spectacle Blog
The January employment report, released this morning, must have big grins on the faces of President Barack Obama and his campaign staff. And despite the negative political implications (of helping Obama’s reelection chances), I still can’t find myself rooting against good economic news. The key is that this is happening despite, not because of, Obama’s policies.
The month-over-month gain in non-farm payrolls came in at 243,000, far exceeding the highest estimate in Bloomberg’s survey of economists, which was 189,000. Private sector payrolls came in at 257,000, again far above estimates, and showing the additional good news that government head counts are shrinking.
The unemployment rate was reported at 8.3%, matching the lowest of the estimates. Average workweek length and average hourly earnings were also very strong.
The political issue here, if this sort of economic trend were to continue, is how Mitt Romney will make his case, which is primarily an economic one, if the economy seems to be on a solid recovery track. I do not believe this pace of improvement is sustainable. Nevertheless, the argument that “this is the weakest recovery in modern American history” is somewhat too subtle for the average voter to understand.
The stock market is looking much stronger prior to Friday’s open, though one has to wonder whether some of this good news was already “baked in,” given the rally the market had earlier in the week. I would not be surprised to see modest profit-taking by the end of the day. That said, I think plenty of people will be caught short here and if the market is still near its highs in the last 15 minutes, I think they’ll take it higher as the shorts are forced to cover going into the weekend.
Government bond and note years are up modestly, and markets have raised their bets on a Fed rate hike by the end of 2013 by about 25%, to a 100% chance of the Fed moving from a 0% target to a 0.25% target. If anything, I think this may still represent lower interest rates than we’ll see if the economy gains traction.
There are no two ways about it, at least from an economic point of view: This was a great number, the best in years, and I’m very glad more Americans are finding work. I just hope they don’t credit President Obama.
View all comments (47) | Leave a comment
More Blog Posts by Ross Kaminsky
http://spectator.org/blog/2012/02/03/employment-report-blows-away-e
Follow us:
ADVERTISEMENT
SPONSORED LINKS
FLASHBACK TO: 1995
-
Pope Culture
A man of faith in a godless age is hitting Americans where it hurts.
-
Why the GOP Does Not, Like, Totally Suck
Mr. and Mrs. American Spectator Reader, let P.J. O’Rourke talk sense to your kids.
-
Dames at Sea
-
In the Absence of Guns
In Britain, defending your property can get you life.
-
The Metaphysical Martini
-
Counting the Costs of Clintonism
The debacle of this president’s administration is both a cause and a symptom of the decline of American values. Unless Congress impeaches him, that decline will go on unchecked. An eminent jurist surveys the damage and assesses the chances for the recovery of our culture.
-
Chuck McHagel
It won’t take long for conservatives to scratch this presidential wannabe off their 2008 scorecard.
-
The Legacy of Old John and Mother Fresh-Roasted
-
It’s the Best Time of the Year
The American Christmas, like the songs that celebrate it, makes room for everybody under the rainbow. Is that why so many people seem to be hostile to it?
-
The Bush Crack-Up
Was the President done in by the economy, or by the politics of the economy?
Clip of the Day
ADVERTISEMENT
Kevin W Compton| 2.3.12 @ 9:48AM
It still doesn't speak of all the people who have simply left the work force or given up looking. Yes, I also agree though, that it is good that more people are finding work and certainly this news is in spite of, not because of Obama and his administration and their policies.
USSAlabama| 2.3.12 @ 11:05AM
1.2 million have left the system. Not good.
Dai Alanye | 2.3.12 @ 10:05AM
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics the civilian labor force participation rate is a mere 63.7%. Thirty-six percent of the working-age population is without employment, not the 8.3% rate. It's been falling for some time, too, and continues to fall. This is the important figure, and it probably doesn't indicate those who are under-employed.
When we quote the 8.3 figure we're helping to hide the administration's failure.
Timothy L. Pennell| 2.3.12 @ 12:20PM
Anyone that believes the Numbers coming out of this Administration, about ANYTHING, is a DAMN FOOL.
How soon we forget that this President's Interior Secretary and his Energy Secretary, collaborated to FORGE DOCUMENTS concerning the Muslim's Drilling Moratorium. They CHANGED the results, as to make them the OPPOSITE of what they really were.
Do you hear me, Ross?
I guess that: "Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me TWICE, shame on ME." doesn't resonate with a Great Writer, like You.
And, YES, I believe I'm Smarter than you.
In fact, I KNOW IT.
NVA Patriot| 2.3.12 @ 10:07AM
Dude, calm down - the more complete truth is at Legal Insurrection.
It's not hard to decrease the jobless rate when you deliberately undercount people who have been out of work and given up after 6 months. Minimize the numerator and leave the denominator the same and the unemployment rate drops. Wow - math; works every time it's tried. Now use 1970's rules for counting and unemployment is 11%; use the U6 and it's 16-20% depending on counting rules.
Sheesh - I thought folks were listening to Rush who has been predicting the unemployment rate would drop for months to make Obama look good.
Please - like thay said in grade school - thinking caps everybody...
And for the record, my large extended family in PA can attest to the lie that is today's unemployment report. And they know they are being lied to - they live the nightmare. They want to believe someone. The best our Mittstablishment can do is serve up the man that a lot of blue collar folks will blame (Bain) for their woes along with Washington. So in a constest of who's least detestable our Republican whiz-kidz give us the most detestable Republican we can find - they would be better off resurrecting Richard Nixon; he had more honesty than Romney.
NVA Patriot| 2.3.12 @ 10:38AM
Re-read this - Sorry, did not mean for it to be so snippy - just frustrated - Obama is going to use every tool he can to give the big lie he's a success.
We cannot let the lies stand and lying with stats is an age old game - probably started by the Greeks in Athens in 400BC
Ross Kaminsky | 2.3.12 @ 12:41PM
I really don't think the numbers geeks at BLS are manipulating the data for Obama. That would be very difficult and very dangerous to do. There are very specific rules on how these numbers are calculates.
Timothy L. Pennell| 2.3.12 @ 12:48PM
Like I said.
Oblivious.
darcy| 2.3.12 @ 12:55PM
Please do us all a favor and get your facts right before reporting. See this story, for example:
"Record 1.2 Million People Fall Out Of Labor Force In One Month, Labor Force Participation Rate Tumbles To Fresh 30 Year Low."
Go to --
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/.....e-tumbles-
Are these the specific rules to which you refer?
Timothy L. Pennell| 2.3.12 @ 12:56PM
Somebody tell ROSS, that there are"Very specific rules" on GUN RUNNING in to a Foreign Country without their Permission. "That would be very difficult and very dangerous to do."
Yet, I seem to recall hearing something along those lines. How can that be, Ross?
You sound like an IDIOT.
Reggie P| 2.3.12 @ 1:06PM
Anyone who needs to resort to name calling when things don't go their way show a definite lack of intelligence. I imagine if these numbers were under a Republican President, you would be shouting about how great they were and if anyone discounted them, you would roll out you typical attack and call them an idiot...
Your words speak for themselves.
Timothy L. Pennell| 2.3.12 @ 5:48PM
These FAKE Numbers would never be under a Republican President. If just ONE NUMBER was askew, the Media would make it the LEAD STORY for a WEEK. And everybody knows it.
Even the IDIOTS, like You.
Herb Tarlek| 2.3.12 @ 10:50PM
I liked it better when you were talking about Obama being the AntiChrist. Thing is, I thought Clinton was the AntiChrist. How many AntiChrists are allowed at once, & is there a critical number before we can expect the rapture?
NVA Patriot| 2.3.12 @ 6:36PM
No Need to name call - I just did a fairly extensive point paper for a candidate - #'s are tough and can be manipulated - debating numbers accurately doesn't make anyone an idiot - unless you're dealing with a self-esteem trained progressive who’s been taught 2+2=5 good job; for your self esteem you get a gold star.
Timothy L. Pennell| 2.4.12 @ 8:15AM
No. Clinton is the RAPIST.
You have to pay attention, if you wanna learn.
You're confusing your Scumbag Democrat Presidents.
teflon93| 2.3.12 @ 10:32AM
1.2 million people left the workforce in a recordsetting month.
Still happy, Ross?
http://www.facebook.com/l.php?.....FY9iKWrXCQ
Timothy L. Pennell| 2.4.12 @ 8:11AM
Yeah. He's happy. He's a Trader. All he cares about is HIMSELF. For him, these numbers couldn't be better. Ka-ching! And he could care less, how they were arrived at.
We look at these numbers, and we see: A STOLEN ELECTION.
Cluelessky looks at them, and all he sees is whatever one sees, when one's head is up one's *ss.
jeff pagels| 2.3.12 @ 10:33AM
How can Mr Kaminsky not even mention the huge drop in the labor force for January? It's easy to get to 8.3% when you claim that over 1.2 million people suddenly dropped out ot the labor force in ONE MONTH -an all-time record. Disappointing reporting.
Bob K.| 2.3.12 @ 10:40AM
I have to think he is testing the readers here.
Ross Kaminsky | 2.3.12 @ 12:47PM
Aaah, so you're testing me now, eh?
Here go you:
The reported drop in the labor participation rate and in labor force is an artifact of an annual readjustment of population numbers. It is not "real" in the sense that a normal person would understand what numbers mean.
From the BLS: " The adjustment increased the estimated size of the civilian
noninstitutional population in December by 1,510,000, the civilian
labor force by 258,000, employment by 216,000, unemployment by 42,000,
and persons not in the labor force by 1,252,000. Although the total
unemployment rate was unaffected, the labor force participation rate
and the employment-population ratio were each reduced by 0.3
percentage point. This was because the population increase was
primarily among persons 55 and older and, to a lesser degree, persons
16 to 24 years of age. Both these age groups have lower levels of
labor force participation than the general population."
Jeff Perren| 2.3.12 @ 2:52PM
Peter Wehner has a less positive view of these numbers, and he covers more than the labor participation data.
http://www.commentarymagazine......ore-782715
Bob K.| 2.3.12 @ 10:28PM
OK. I understand. I think.
But here is a tough one. ( And I hope the people don't give credit for this decrease to Obama.) If the unemployment numbers go back up, as I expect that they will, can we go back to blaming Obama for it if we didn't give him credit for the current drop?
martin j smith| 2.3.12 @ 10:41AM
Problem 1) do these numbers reflect those who have given up finding work and 2) I no longer view the stock market as reflecting the US economic situation. It is international and is being manipulated by the ilks of George Soros and others.
Reggie P| 2.3.12 @ 1:13PM
....and the black helicopters are hovering over your house, as we speak.
gearjammer| 2.3.12 @ 10:46AM
LET ALL OF US WITHOUT A JOB SEEK ONE IN A FEW MONTHS. tAKE YOUR UNEMPLOYED FRIEND TO FILL OUT A JOB APP. GET IT UP TO 10 .
Truth to Power| 2.3.12 @ 11:14AM
Ross, does this look like something odd is going on? As an engineer I think something hinky is happening to the data.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites...../01/People Not In Labor Force.jpg
Bill Hussein O'Stalin| 2.3.12 @ 11:15AM
The numbers only show you should look on the government with a greater level of distrust, and not satisfaction:
http://bearingdrift.com/2012/0.....bor-force/
A month ago, we joked when we said that for Obama to get the unemployment rate to negative by election time, all he has to do is to crush the labor force participation rate to about 55%. Looks like the good folks at the BLS heard us: it appears that the people not in the labor force exploded by an unprecedented record 1.2 million. No, that’s not a typo: 1.2 million people dropped out of the labor force in one month! So as the labor force increased from 153.9 million to 154.4 million, the non institutional population increased by 242.3 million meaning, those not in the labor force surged from 86.7 million to 87.9 million. Which means that the civilian labor force tumbled to a fresh 30 year low of 63.7% as the BLS is seriously planning on eliminating nearly half of the available labor pool from the unemployment calculation. As for the quality of jobs, as withholding taxes roll over Year over year, it can only mean that the US is replacing high paying FIRE jobs with low paying construction and manufacturing. So much for the improvement.
MyGirlFriday| 2.3.12 @ 11:54AM
Glad you posted Zero Hedge's (zerohedge.com) adept analysis of the BS being spewed by the main stream media. Mr. Kaminsky would do well to stick to his opinions on politicians and leave the unraveling of the propaganda math to those that do it for a living such as Tyler over at Zero Hedge. There is another post up "Implied Unemployment Rate Rises To 11.5 %, Spread to Propaganda Number Surges To 30 Year High" with two very good graphs.
c. j. acworth| 2.3.12 @ 11:55AM
Even if you take the 8.3% number at face value, the line the Republicans should be using is "Great, we're still higher than the number we shouldn"t have even reached in the first place, if all the Obama stimulus spending had worked as advertised."
George S| 2.3.12 @ 11:56AM
Notice how they are not calling this "unexpected". This is good news -- if it is true. And that is a big if considering this is an election year.
But one question, Ross: how does this square with a GDP growth of only 1.7%? Something doesn't fit.
Timothy L. Pennell| 2.3.12 @ 12:29PM
No. EVERYTHING doesn't fit, because it's not real. There were 2 1/2 MILLION Fewer Jobs in January, than in December.
What does that mean?
It means the GOAL POSTS are being Moved, again. And it means that Kaminsky doesn't know his Ass, from a Hole in the Wall, again.
Anyone surprised?
George S| 2.3.12 @ 1:51PM
Tim: those goal post are not only moving but are being made to disappear. Now if we take the number of people working and divide that by the total number of jobs, we then get 100% employment.
Next thing they'll be telling us is that there isn't a homeless problem: just look at all those empty foreclosures -- we have a surplus!
Timothy L. Pennell| 2.3.12 @ 5:55PM
Actually, since you brought it up. It was announced by the most Truthful Administration ever, that Homelessness is DOWN, under President Foreclosure/Food Stamp/Record Number of Americans living AT, or BELOW, the Poverty Rate.
It's a Festivus Miracle.
Windy City Commentary| 2.3.12 @ 12:15PM
Well Ross, I guess we don't need your jobs creating candidate Mitt anymore. There are other issues out there where we could use a more conservative candidate.
Ross Kaminsky | 2.3.12 @ 12:52PM
Look, people, I don't want good news for Obama any more than you do. But this labor participation rate thing is somewhat less than meets the eye. And the idea that the government is manipulating numbers to help the president is something I've heard constantly, no matter who the president is, for the nearly 25 years that I've been trading financial markets and following this stuff.
As for the labor participation rate, Brian Wesbury (a very conservative free-market economist) offers this insight which is well worth reading:
www.ftportfolios.com/Commentar.....ot-so-fast
aware| 2.3.12 @ 5:20PM
The numbers aren't "cooked" to help this president, Ross, you are missing the point. The numbers are just "cooked" period. The data used to come up with the numbers is manipulated and is not the same as collected in the depression, or even in the 80s.
All government numbers are waterboarded to sing the tune the State wants. As far as the market goes, fundamentals are now meaningless, nothing else matters but what the Fed does. You are seeing anticipation of additional "easing" priced in.
You keep chasing those nickels in front of that steam roller and you will be crushed. If you are not cashing out profits and buying metal every time you can, you will get killed almost without warning. There will be no real improvement until the poison(debt) is purged. The worst is yet to come. Don't be fooled by bogus government window dressing. There are real consequences to what governments have been doing for some time, eventually even can kicking ends.
Besides, if every thing is rosy then let government end all its propping actions and let's just see if this patient gets up off the floor. I'd say instant cardiac arrest would be more likely, wouldn't you?
I noticed today even Limbaugh was referencing ZeroHedge and EconomicCollapseBlog. A small ray of sunshine when "the Big Voice of Conservatism" stumbles across the anachro view, which is the last bastion of truth in this sea of lies. If he starts quoting from OfTwoMinds and TheBurningPlatform then I will know there is hope.
Herb Tarlek| 2.3.12 @ 10:53PM
Rush will never quote from the burning platform. That is a Ron Paul outfit.
aware| 2.4.12 @ 8:31AM
Best article of the last 10 years, Bub: http://www.theburningplatform.com/?p=15909
But it won't fit your outdated false left/right paradigm. But if truth matters.....
Timothy L. Pennell| 2.4.12 @ 7:53AM
Nice.
It seems that you are aware.
Sometimes.
martin j smith| 2.3.12 @ 12:55PM
Ross hop come I see ads on TV for contributions because of child hunger. How come there are stories about increase in the gap between rich and poor. Numbers are only as good and those making them up. Time to have little truth in advertising .
Derek Leaberry| 2.3.12 @ 1:18PM
It is Friday and sarcasm should reign. Keynesianism works. Prime rate virtually at zero. Interest rates low. The national budget has been $ 1.2 trillion to $ 1.6 trillion in the red for the entire Obama presidency. Yet nominal inflation is low, at least the brilliant David Frum tells us so.(Of course, tell that to anyone who commutes long distances to work and does his own grocery shopping). What's not to like. The Dynamic Duo of Obama(Batman) and Bernancke(Robin) have brought back prosperity to the suffering 99 %. Little Debbie snack cakes, Big Macs, I-Phones, 52 inch TVs and 200 station cable for all. You never had it so good, Harold Macmillan.
M. Dallas| 2.3.12 @ 1:25PM
PA-LEASE. SO, WHEN THE NUMBERS ARE BAD, EVERYONE IS "BLAME OBAMA." WHEN THE NUMBERS ARE GOOD, EVERYONE SAYS "IT'S DESPITE OBAMA." (ARTICLE ARGUES THIS). CAN'T HAVE IT BOTH WAYS FOLKS! CHOOSE ONE OR THE OTHER....IF YOU'RE HONEST. AS FOR MANIPULATING THE DATA, IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO DO. AND THERE IS LABOR DATA ON THOSE WHO DROP OUT OF THE WORKFORCE TOO. GO TO THE LABOR DEPT. WEBSITE TO BE INFORMED.
Stan Redmond| 2.3.12 @ 9:05PM
Tell that to Obama.
Simon templar| 2.3.12 @ 6:09PM
You really are a putz, Ross.
With all that supposed great store of knowledge you claim to have on economics and finance, you are either dumb as a rock or a real live shill for the beltway.
This is for you too M. Dallas...
The reported unemployment statistic represents those who are currently on unemployment insurance, not those that have given up looking for a job, or those working sparse part-time. The REAL unemployment figure which has been released recently this past month by the government is more like 23 percent. These figures have been historically manipulated and deceptively presented by the government for decades.
So, we have an increase in a few more people getting jobs, so fucking what. Gee, where were these jobs? Perhaps, in states like Texas and Wisconsin? Yeah, were headed for great economic boom and happy days ahead.
We are 16 trillion in debt, the fed is not raising rates, the dollar is expected to fall in value once more, India and China are rushing to buy more gold, socialist jackass is proposing to do exactly the same with motgages that got us in this crisis in the first place, China is drilling offshore...but happy days are here again.
You end your article and begin it with the idea that the Obama administration is happy and sitting sweet. You do not have enough sense as a toad to tell the whole story, all the facts, and present a firm rebuttal of this bullshit.
You are all f*cking insane and would not recognize the truth if it kicked you in the teeth.
EVERYTHING IS SPIN and POLITICAL PROPAGANDA with you talking heads, the pols, and their sycophants. God help us.
Yes, Timothy is smarter than you.
aware| 2.3.12 @ 7:45PM
Just have another round of hopium like Ross and you'll feel better. Government hopium is the best.
Bob K.| 2.4.12 @ 2:50AM
I don't think that it is wise to agree with the mass
media and help spread the BS that this small decrease in the unemployment rate portends a big economic turnaround and that it is all because of Obama's genius!
If we roll over and play dead (and it sure sounds like that is what we are doing here!) because we think that all Obama has to do is keep the Unemployment Rate around 8% to get re-elected there will be no incentive to improve it in the future by either party. Taxes will remain high. the bureaucracy will get fatter,inflation will grow and employers won't expand their work forces and government transfer payments will continue to increase.
We already have an under-the-table, black market economy to a certain extent and it will continue to grow which will be an unintended benefit!
JeffC| 2.5.12 @ 4:31PM
Ross ...
your ignorance is showing ...
that 243 number does not come from raw data ... it is completely made up by the BLS with a seasonal adjustment ...