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Florida Predictions

By W. James Antle, III on 1.31.12 @ 12:15PM

As late as last week, Florida looked like it was going to be a toss-up. No more. I'm calling this state for Mitt Romney by double digits. Newt Gingrich is acting like he knows this isn't going to be pretty. Rick Santorum will finish third, buoyed by a solid debate performance and with his family in the news. Ron Paul will break into the double digits.

After his decisive win in South Carolina, Gingrich stormed out to a big lead in the Florida polls. The evaporation of that lead is the biggest setback yet in a campaign that has been filled with near-death experiences followed by death-defying stunts. What will Gingrich do for his next act? Romney beware: hell hath no fury like a Newt scorned.

View all comments (17) | Leave a comment

Clint| 1.31.12 @ 1:05PM

Attention:
The New Shipment Of "Vote For Newt" Mormon Undergarments Has Arrived And Will Be On Sale In The Lobby.

Thank You,
The Management.

Occam's Tool| 1.31.12 @ 7:55PM

35.3% of total precints reporting: Ron Paul has climbed: to 6.8%.

Sorry about the thumb in the eye, Clint. And the punch in the nads.

Occam's Tool| 1.31.12 @ 7:55PM

Sorry: "precincts." Paul gets NO delegates. NONE. NADA.

Bill| 1.31.12 @ 1:10PM

FL GOP Primary:
Winner: Gingrich
2nd: Romney
3rd: Santorum
4th: Paul
Gingrich kicked ass!

MikeG| 1.31.12 @ 6:35PM

You did a terrific job predicting Perry would win Idaho, NH, and SC.

Bill| 1.31.12 @ 1:10PM

BREAKING NEWS: President Obama just endorsed Mitt Romney! Obama said "I expect Romney to win the GOP nod, it'll make my life easier since I will beat Romney in a landslide. By the way, thanks to Romney, for implementing ObamaCare." He also promised that he would give Romney a job since Romney would have been bankrupted by the time the election is over. Obama also invited Romney, Chris Christie, Ann Coulter to his victory party after the 2012 election, saying "I did it again!"
You get the picture, don't you!

Windy City Commentary| 1.31.12 @ 1:28PM

Wow Antle, you sure based this on a lot of facts. I hope if Newt does lose, it is by 2 to 5 points. That would be awesome, after getting outspent 5:1 in ads and after Romney received millions in in-kind contributions by Drudge and National Review. NRO found the Reaganites to bash Newt, and Drudge plastered it all on his site, to make it all appear much bigger than it really was.

W. James Antle III| 1.31.12 @ 1:39PM

I am basing this on the fact that Newt is only down by five in one of the last eight reputable polls. He's down by double digits in most of the rest:

http://www.realclearpolitics.c.....-1597.html

What facts are you basing your prediction on?

Clint| 1.31.12 @ 1:48PM

Gentlemen, Place Your Bets.

Occam's Tool| 1.31.12 @ 7:52PM

Paul 6.7% so far. OOPS. How do you like your crushed nuts, Clint?

Chuck| 1.31.12 @ 1:32PM

Hubert Humphrey won the Democratic nomination on the first ballot in 1968. Yet Humphrey did not compete in any primaries. I think the Democrats bent the rules in a few places allowing this to happen therefore Republicans take a cue from this and find someone else to nominate. Gingrich is bad enough but Romney is a total fraud and conservatives know this and won't bother voting. Revenge is sweet, liberal Republicans unrelentingly attacked Goldwater in '64 and now conservatives of all stripes will have a field day attacking Romney.

Jake| 1.31.12 @ 2:16PM

If Newt gets any more furious , he'll need a straight jacket.
When the other candidates were on the ropes-from Pawlenty on down to Perry ,
none of them spun out of control emotionally like Newt has this past week in Florida.
Newt has lost all focus, he is so consumed with personal revenge against Romney that he is babbling about kosher food in nursing homes
and throwing tantrums , like canceling pressers and charter flights because
he " is mad at the media."
This is just January , he would be a foaming mess by November.

Clint| 1.31.12 @ 2:21PM

Like Da Man Say, " We Ain't Votin' For Some Guy Named After A Baseball Glove."

Occam's Tool| 1.31.12 @ 7:52PM

51% for Mitt. Right as usual, Clint.

Nite| 1.31.12 @ 7:39PM

Who wins depends on the part of Florida that has the largest turn out of voters. Polls in the Panhandle do not close until 8 P.M. I saw on another site that Networks are going to call it for Romney at 8 P.M. Votes will not even be counted in the Panhandle. They did this during the Bush/Gore election. Stupidity again.

Occam's Tool| 1.31.12 @ 7:57PM

Paul finishes 4th. Again. Loser. As I said: three serious candidates.

Arnold Harris| 1.31.12 @ 9:53PM

Romney flattened Gingrich in Florida today. I agree with Florida Senator Marco Rubio's prediction that the winner of the Florida Republican primary election most likely will be the party's nominee to face Obama.

Moreover, the Florida primary clearly showed that Gingrich would never get the vote of most of the women in this country.

I think Republicans in most of the large-population states will vote more or less like their counterparts in Florida did today.

In any case, Romney can beat Obama in the general election; Gingrich would not even come close to achieving that.

Arnold Harris
Mount Horeb WI