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The Spectacle Blog
Newt Gingrich has accomplished what no Republican has managed to do in the post-Reagan era: beat an establishment GOP candidate in the South Carolina primary by running as a conservative insurgent, even making effective use of populist themes — e.g., Bain-bashing — most conservative commentators prefer their candidates to eschew. Gingrich won 40 percent to 28 percent, a convincing showing.
Gingrich’s victory speech was atypically gracious and characteristically unfocused, raising questions about whether he can maintain the discipline necessary to capitalize on his South Carolina showing. But make no mistake: a Southern candidate with high name recognition and some capacity for fundraising is dangerous to the erstwhile frontrunner, who now finds himself in uncharted territory. Gingrich led in Florida not that long ago.
Mitt Romney still has a lot of advantages. It isn’t clear that Gingrich, who has had ballot access and other problems, can walk and chew gum in multiple primary states at the same time. But the dynamic of the race has been completely changed, and not in a way that is favorable to Romney. He has gone from the inevitable nominee who was going to run the table in the early states to a candidate who has now lost two out of three contests. While Romney can benefit from a competitive nomination process, too protracted a fight will run up his negatives and remind Southern Republican primary voters they don’t particularly like him.
Romney’s concession speech suggests he plans to hit back at Gingrich on ideological grounds, arguing that the former speaker’s Bain rhetoric is anti-free enterprise. It’s not too different from the strategy employed against Pat Buchanan in 1996 or Mike Huckabee in 2008. But Romney isn’t ideally suited to making ideological attacks, to put it mildly. Florida, Nevada, Arizona, and Michigan loom large as staging grounds for any Romney comeback.
Rick Santorum had a solid third place finish, especially considering Gingrich’s double-digit margin of victory. He won 53 percent of those cared most about abortion and 43 percent of voters who wanted a candidate with strong moral character. Yet now that Gingrich has beaten Romney — and by more than 34 votes with eight precincts missing — there will be pressure on Santorum to get out of the race. How long will he ignore such calls? Remember that Jon Huntsman also won 17 percent of the vote in a third place finish somewhere, insisting that he had a “ticket to ride” to the next primary.
Ron Paul more than tripled his share of the South Carolina vote from 2008 and nearly quintupled his number of raw votes. But with endorsements from such prominent local legislators as state Sen. Tom Davis, it is still a disappointment for Paul to have two firsts in this race: underperforming his poll numbers and finishing last among the active candidates.
Paul didn’t work South Carolina as hard as Iowa or New Hampshire, and plans to do even less in Florida while focusing on the caucuses. The logic of using resources where they can do the most good makes sense, but this is still a gamble. Finishing third in South Carolina would have been good for sustaining momentum and keeping a disproportionately young base’s eyes on the prize. So would a double-digit showing in Florida. How much Gingrich remaining competitive will impact Paul’s overall delegate-gathering strategy depends on what effect it has on Romney: does it force Mitt to engage the caucuses more to win delegates himself or does it pull him out of those states to focus on competing with Gingrich in primaries?
View all comments (38) | Leave a comment
More Blog Posts by W. James Antle, III
http://spectator.org/blog/2012/01/21/summing-up-south-carolina
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Occam's Tool| 1.22.12 @ 12:21AM
Apparently, Paul bot vermin are attempting to become Mitt Romney candidates so that if the initial convention vote is deadlocked, they can then vote for paul.
News to the scum: the Republicans will NOT support a guy who 80% vote gainst, numbnuts!
Clint| 1.22.12 @ 7:13AM
Uh Oh !
The Screwball Israel Firster Bibi Butt Boy, Tool Job Is All Upset & Cranky Again.
Tool Job's One Of The Israel Firster Smear Bund RINO-CINO Flunkie Stooges Who Gave Us The Serial Traitor To Conservatism, John McCain Of McCain-Feingold, McCain-Kennedy,McCain-Lieberman,Gang Of 14, Opposing Bush Tax Cuts Of 2001 & 2003,TARP.
" CBS Poll: Independents Prefer Ron Paul Vs Obama
In a head to head match up with incumbent President Barack Obama, the indie voter chooses Ron Paul, a CBS News poll suggested on Monday.
A total of 47% of independent voters said they would choose Ron Paul compared to 45% of independent voters choosing Mitt Romney against Obama, and 41% of independents saying they would choose Rick Santorum. If a Paul-Obama showdown were ever to take place, 47% of independent voters would vote for Paul, 81% republicans and 10% Democrats for a total of 45% of the vote. Obama would get just 40% of the independent vote in that contest, with 85% of the Democrats choosing Obama and 9% of Republicans choosing the President on election day in November. Obama would win the general election by a narrow one point margin if the election was held today between the two."
The Tea Party Rebellion Heads To A Brokered Convention.
Mike| 1.22.12 @ 10:06AM
Clint,
You really should stop being so coy about your admiration for Occam.
spike59| 1.23.12 @ 6:33AM
it's over, Clint...pack it in, it's...over.
Bob Buoy| 1.22.12 @ 7:54AM
All Romney needs to do at the next debate is ask why if Santorum is such a great friend of Newt that he would be part of the conservative moves in the 90's to remove newt as speaker. Is it because Newt was that untrustworthy and incompetent that Santorum had not choice or is it because Santorum is a disloyal friend? puts the focus on Newts incompetence in office.
Occam's Tool| 1.22.12 @ 12:22AM
Sorry, that's "voted against." It does show the Paulbots at their verminous worst, howevfer.
Clint| 1.22.12 @ 7:15AM
Actually, You Traitor Bastard Israel Firster Bibi Butt Boys Are The Scum Suckin' Worst, Scum Face Tool Job.
The Tea Party Rebellion Steps On Scummy Face Tool Job.
chuck| 1.22.12 @ 8:47AM
Poor Clintie-pooh!
Back to "face-stomping", now that the Messiah is last, dead-last, bottom of the barrel last?
Somehow it must be because of the JOOOOOOOOS! Planning on fire-bombing a Synagogue or two today?
Clint| 1.22.12 @ 9:18AM
Uh Oh !
RINO-CINO Smear Bund chuckie Attempts To Play His Dog Eared Anti-Jew Card On Tea Party Clint.
Dr. Ron Paul Versus The Three Chickenhawk Coat Holder Toughie Talkin' Girlies, Mittens, Mr.Neutered And Ricky Specter-Santorum.
The Tea Party Rebellion Heads To A Brokered Convention.
spike59| 1.23.12 @ 6:34AM
@clint...such talk from a 13 yr old troll! do you service 'DrPaul' with that mouth?
spike59| 1.23.12 @ 6:34AM
@clint...such talk from a 13 yr old troll! do you service 'DrPaul' with that mouth?
michaal corleone| 1.22.12 @ 12:53AM
Santorum MUST stay in the race because Newt will implode in about 5 days.
Hi hubris, character issues (ethics report for the 90's), and tendency to knee-cap fellow Republicans in need of support (can you say Paul Ryan) will be on full display soon.
Santorum should hang around so he can pick up the pieces from the non-Rom voters when Gingrich implodes. And he will implode. Remember, Gingrich has no experience RUNNING for election on a big stage. SC was the first state-wide election he ever won.
RJ| 1.22.12 @ 1:08AM
I don't think Romney's money advantage means much. He was the only candidate who had money to spend last time and he lost (to McCain even).
I also don't think there will be pressure from party officials for Santorum to drop out. In fact, if the GOP establishment comes to the conclusion Romney is toast, they will probably get behind Santorum because they hate Newt. It has turned into a most interesting race and Michael Corleone makes a good point. Either way, I will be happy to support either Santorum or Gingrich.
I also think we found a great vice-presidential nominee for Obama. How could he do better than Capt. Francesco Schettino? The guy seems to be an Obama clone in terms of his record of accomplishment. And let's not hear any of that "he isn't an American" stuff.
W. James Antle III | 1.22.12 @ 1:27AM
I don't think the pressure on Santorum will come from Republican leaders. I think it will come from conservative activists. The key questions will be how many of his voters stick by him in Florida and beyond plus what impact that has on Gingrich vs. Romney.
In SC, Newt was able to beat Romney even with Santorum receiving 17 percent of the vote. That won't be true everywhere.
RJ| 1.22.12 @ 1:58AM
Thanks, James.
You could be right, but how many of us conservatives are comfortable that Newt won't charge into another wild venture? I didn't see the negative ads against him in Iowa, but I thought his troubles started when he talked about hauling judges before Congress to explain their rulings. It was off message from the main issue of government choking the economy and was reckless (we trust Congress to fix bad courts?). Then he sounded like a liberal in attacking Romney on Bain. Its a wild ride following Newt. Nonetheless, I will be happy to support whoever wins the nomination.
R Martin| 1.22.12 @ 8:48AM
Let's face it, Newt's success in the primaries so far is due to one fact alone--his rhetorical skills. We currently have a president who was elected on exactly that basis, and the results have been disasterous. What's that line about fool me once?
Apart from Newt's likeability deficiency and his support of leftist causes (the marriage issues are irrelevant), his attack on Bain and capitalism in general is singularly disqualifying. A serious Republican who claims to be conservative and who invokes Ronald Reagan at every opportunity would have leaped to Romney's defense.
If Newt is our nominee he will make Goldwater's 1964 showing look positively brilliant.
Tom Osterman| 1.22.12 @ 12:44PM
Don't be too quick to discount "rhetorical skills." In my view, any candidate for public office should be able to explain to voters why they should vote for him, and if he wins, why his policies should have their support. Lacking such skills is a critical weakness especially for a candidate for President. Look at Bush 41 vs. Clinton, Dole vs. Clinton and McCain vs. Obama. Then look at Ronald "the Great Communicator" Reagan's career as President. Rhetorical skills may not be enough, but in this day and age they're indispensable.
Occam's Tool| 1.22.12 @ 1:30AM
I predicted Paul would finish 4th. He will repeat this process in the FLA primary, unless Santorum drops out; in that case he will finish 3rd, but be even farther behind the frontrunner. I think I'm gona find a few choice Clint quotes about Paul defeating all comers and cut and paste them on him.
Clint| 1.22.12 @ 7:22AM
Tool Job's One Of The Israel Firster Smear Bund RINO-CINO Flunkie Stooges Who Gave Us The Serial Traitor To Conservatism, John McCain Of McCain-Feingold, McCain-Kennedy,McCain-Lieberman,Gang Of 14, Opposing Bush Tax Cuts Of 2001 & 2003,TARP.
" Gingrich isn’t much more popular among that contingent than Romney. In May, when Gingrich sharply criticized Paul Ryan’s Medicare reform plan, FreedomWorks Chairman Dick Armey reminded National Review that Gingrich had been a serial offender:
Citing Gingrich’s support of Dede Scozzafava in the 2009 congressional election in New York’s 23rd district, his backing of Medicare Part D and TARP, and his commercial with Nancy Pelosi about climate change, Armey observes that “Newt entered the race with serious ground to make up with these 2 million Tea Party activists.”…
Brendan Steinhauser, director of Federal and State Campaigns for FreedomWorks, reports that the Tea Partiers he’s talked to are “irate” at Gingrich… “I never met a single Tea Party activist that supported Newt Gingrich for president,” he adds."
The Tea Party Rebellion Heads To A Brokered Convention.
spike59| 1.23.12 @ 6:35AM
Clint is the proverbial "box o'rocks"...only slighly less intelligent
Bill Hussein O'Stalin| 1.22.12 @ 6:22AM
Gingrich found a lot of angry people to vote for him.
When they find out Newt was in on the game that made them angry maybe they will learn something about themselves and politicians.
Clint| 1.22.12 @ 7:25AM
Uh Oh !
" Romney demands Gingrich release contract for Freddie Mac work
GREENVILLE, S.C. — Mitt Romney called on Newt Gingrich to release all correspondence he'd had with mortgage giant Freddie Mac on Saturday morning, the day of South Carolina's primary, while meeting with supporters at his Upstate South Carolina campaign headquarters.
"I'd like to see the report," he told reporters. "I'd like to see what he actually told Freddie Mac. Don't you think? This is a big issue. We've got a Washington insider talking about Freddie Mac. Let's see what his report was to Freddie Mac, what he said to them, what advice he gave them."
The Tea Party Rebellion Heads To Florida.
aware| 1.22.12 @ 6:33AM
Fannie and Freddie beat Goldman Sachs this time. The reason the 3 front runners are always attacking each others past is because their plan for the future is the same. Don't count Goldman out.
Warrior | 1.22.12 @ 9:22AM
Well said.
axbucxdu| 1.22.12 @ 9:31PM
That's why they're affectionately known as The Squid. Heads they win, tails we lose...for now.
Take heart gents, math is on the side of Paul's ideas, not theirs.
aware| 1.23.12 @ 6:04AM
See posts above and below to witness the cognitive dissonance that prevails in "conservatives" these days. They talk of "limited government" and the "constitution" at the same time they support statists with the record of statists.
The world the Squid built hangs by a thread and probably won't even make it till the pointless election.
axbucxdu| 1.23.12 @ 1:44PM
This discussion has me thinking of Yevgraf Zhivago's background dialog when he mixes in with that parade of volunteers marching off to WWI.
jmm1890| 1.22.12 @ 7:07AM
How can you win an election by "more than 34 votes with 8 precincts missing"?
Mike| 1.22.12 @ 9:17AM
I found it ironic that Newt, a strong advocate for the decision that was handed down in Citizens United, became one of the first victims of a superpac - Romney's superpac. Speaking of which, does anybody think Romney's superpac buddies are doing anything today other than sharpening there knives? My guess is that what they did to Newt in Iowa will look like sweetness and light compared to what is coming.
Interested Conservative| 1.22.12 @ 2:23PM
True enough, but the attacks and Newt deflated largely due to "new" bad news (i.e. the $1.6 mil contract). Negatives seem to work either with previously unknown news, or simple inundation.
I doubt there's much new bad news about Newt, and the ABC interview/John King question was the 1st go at inundation. It didn't work.
As for Mitt, we'll see if the tax issue fades, and if he can improve his authenticity.
Regardless, the democrats clearly have the inundation coming, as well as access to all the raw FBI files, congressional documents, and tax information.
Still, $5.00/gal. gas this summer may be too much to cover in mud.
Mike| 1.22.12 @ 5:05PM
Interesting points you make Interested Conservative.
If $5.00 a gallon gas does materialize, both parties will work assiduously to mobilize populist anger for their benefit. The questions which party will do it best.
martin j smith| 1.22.12 @ 10:01AM
As I said elsewhere Newt did not win but the audicne in the dbate won this election. Newt standing for himself in a debate against the Communist Nyuze Nyet wurk ( of that is CNN )
drew the kind of applause and reaction that a winning candidate needs--to win.Its called enthusiasm. Is there anything about this word that anyone does not get ? It was interesting to look at Rush Limbaugh's play by play of Newt's
response --it was the audience telling the candidates something of what they want--if you do not get that then you are truly lost. They want a fighter who will be a winner--they are tired of John McCain or any old Bush.He has not so far-that is why he lost. There are other factors and by the way I do not for a second believe anyone has things sewn up Very soon (here is a hint ) the winning candidate had better change the focus from attacking fellow candidates to attacking what Obama is doing on the ground as well the MSM cover up. These are the issues that will determine the winner. That is my view free of charge.
Anthony M| 1.22.12 @ 10:31AM
Newt may be the only candidate mean enough to beat Obama. I thought Santorum was okay until he said he wanted to give felons the vote, he lost me there, Paul brings in a lot of young people and libertarians but not enough to carry the country, Romney looks like a president and seems to be a good man, but I don't think he has it in him to go all out against Obama. I always get the feeling he's going to pull a McCain and tell us what a good guy Obama is. Newt, on the other hand, has a little bit of that Nixon fire in him, the fire that wins elections. Could be we've found our man.
bill| 1.22.12 @ 12:32PM
Newt won because he appeared to be the alternative of the establishment figure like Mitt, and that Newt displayed he had charisma, conviction, statesmanship, and leadership to take on Obama in the Fall, despite of the fact that Newt lacked money and organization. Newt has an army of "true-patriot" who will dismantle Obama in 2012.
Mitt lost because he keeps using his private sector experience, people across the aisle little bit tired of Wall Street, and Mitt represented them, not the Main Street.
Santorum poised for a "horrible" finish because he opposed "Right-to-Work" law with a weak argument that he is from PA, and that PA is a pro-union state, and then he vowed to support the law when he would become the President. Very RINO.
Ron Paul is preaching "Black Power," and SC is no place for that kind of nonsense, and he finished at the last place.
Newt will win in FL, as well.
Clint| 1.22.12 @ 4:46PM
RINO-CINO bill Plays The Dog Eared Race Card On Dr. Ron Paul.
" More than 40 Catholic leaders and theologians have issued an open letter to Catholic candidates Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum, warning them "to stop perpetuating ugly racial stereotypes on the campaign trail."
In their open letter, the Catholic leaders -- many of them associated with progressive and Democratic causes -- say that raising "racist caricatures is irresponsible, immoral and unworthy of political leaders."
"Some presidential candidates now courting 'values voters' seem to have forgotten that defending human life and dignity does not stop with protecting the unborn," the authors write.
"We remind Mr. Gingrich and Mr. Santorum that Catholic bishops describe racism as an 'intrinsic evil' and consistently defend vital government programs such as food stamps and unemployment benefits that help struggling Americans."
The Tea Party Rebellion Steps On RINO-CINO Asshats.
PCP Smoker| 1.22.12 @ 4:18PM
The speech does not raise any questions at all. Eat your crow in silence, and give us a smile. It's time for the GOP establishment to bend over, lube up, and smile. Here it comes. Get used to it too.
Jeff Hamm| 1.22.12 @ 8:25PM
Newt as any other republican is not a liberal to question Bain.The business model Romney was influential in starting now compensates CEOs 300 x the average worker rather than the 35x we had in the 70s.I am a capitalist and believe in smaller gov but this has become a problem when CEOs are trying to hit the jackpot rather than having the best interest of the company and all that involves. I DON'T KNOW THE ANSWER but not only is our gov broken but so are parts of our financial and economic system.I support Newt .
spike59| 1.23.12 @ 6:38AM
okay, Paultards...3 states down, and your tinfoil hat messiah is steadily fading in the rear-view mirror...so, let me say it again-RON PAUL WILL NEVER EVER EVER BE ELECTED PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES. EVER.
TRY to let it sink in THIS time....m'kay?