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The Spectacle Blog
Whatever happens tonight, there is going to be some discussion of whether Rick Santorum should have skipped the New Hampshire primary and focused on South Carolina. The logic is this: Right after the Iowa caucuses, Santorum began polling competitively with Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich. He wasn’t the kind of candidates who translates well in New Hampshire. Santorum’s South Carolina poll numbers declined as he was wasting his time in a state where was never likely to do well.
But during the same period where polls showed Santorum with an opportunity to win South Carolina, the polling also looked like he had a shot to finish third in New Hampshire. Santorum needed to keep his momentum going and he also needed to continue to put distance between himself and Gingrich. He may have failed to both of those things, but if he had bypassed New Hampshire entirely he surely would have done even worse. Maybe Rick Perry’s 0.7 percent of the vote in New Hampshire didn’t hurt in South Carolina — by that point, he was only polling around 5 percent in SC anyway — but it surely didn’t help.
The assumption seems to be that additional campaign appearances in South Carolina could have outweighed being a nonentity in the post-New Hampshire reporting and Gingrich’s performance in the debates. Count me skeptical. If it had made a difference in being able to advertise in South Carolina, that would be one thing. But he’s been relying mostly on retail politics. Santorum lost his Granite State gamble, but it was a gamble he needed to make.
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More Blog Posts by W. James Antle, III
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Clint| 1.21.12 @ 3:21PM
Big Government Ricky Santorum's Record On Voting For Earmarks, Even The Bridge To Nowhere, His Support For The Lobbyist "K-Street Project" , His Tariff Votes, Medicare Prescription Drugs, No Child Left Behind,Etc. Is Gonna Sink Him With Tea Party Patriots.
Israel Firsters Won't Be Able To Carry The Chickenhawk Santorum ,The Big Government Statist.
The Tea Party Rebellion Is In South Carolina.
Drek| 1.21.12 @ 5:08PM
Should Santorum have ever gotten in the race?
No financiers behind him.
No name of national stature.
Obviously nobody who told him he comes across as a tiresome and wearisome scold.
There needed to be a good deal more forethought into this whole campaigning to be President thing.
The entire reason he jumped in is a good chunk of the reason he hasn't caught fire. And that is that THE ISSUE which motivates him is abortion.
And there's something weird about that.
I'm anti-abortion too, but it doesn't consume me as it does him and his wife.
RJ| 1.21.12 @ 5:31PM
Rick and the other candidates were asked in the last debate what they would have liked to do differently. Rick said he couldn't think of anything he would like to change and that he thought it was a miracle that he made it to the final four, with no money and having lost his last election. He has every right to be proud of what he has accomplished in this race.
I didn't give him much credit when the campaign started, but he has earned my respect. I think he would be a better candidate and President than either Mitt or Newt. He has been consistant, he hasn't pandered or gotten involved in the mudslinging, he has led an honorable life, and most important he has authentic on many issues which are important to conservatives. While I prefer another candidate's economic plan, I think Santorum has the best temperament and conviction to serve as President.
Drek| 1.21.12 @ 6:39PM
In another election cycle, I could perhaps understand his quest for the nomination.
But there were four people on stage who absorbed time and attention, who should never have been on the stage, {Paul, who at least has a solid level of support, Cain, Bachmann and Santorum}.
Because those people were on stage, others, prominent Governors perhaps, stayed out.
We could have had a battle of GOP Governors, such as Christie, Jindall, and the Governor of Virginia, all of them alongside the former Speaker and Romney.
THAT would have been something worth the while.
Instead we got diverted by Cain and his poorly explained and understood 999 plan.
We got diverted by the unblemished lady in white who in reality was kneecapping anybody who got near Romney.
We got the guy who is too damn fixated on abortion.
Paul, ----------- if only he stayed on economic themes, if only he zeroed in on the Federal Reserve! Now that might have advanced the ball some!
But instead we got this, which has now effectively become Romney, not Romney, or Gingrich, not Gingrich.
I'll go with Gingrich.
There is some value in savvy and aggressiveness.
RJ| 1.21.12 @ 8:24PM
I don't think that Christie, Jindall or the Governor of Virginia stayed out because Santorum (or Cain or Bachmann for that matter) was in the race. Christie and the Virginia Governor have only been in office for two years. Its too early for them. Jindall has only been in for four years. He wants more time to do his job in Louisiana and he didn't do so well when the GOP gave him a chance to speak opposite of Obama. Mitch Daniels and others were asked, but decided to stay out. You have to give credit to those who decided to run against long odds. That includes Newt, who I also admire. I just wish he would stay focused and not go off the cliff as he has a tendency to do.
Drek| 1.21.12 @ 9:06PM
Money was of course the key factor. Only Perry had sources of funding wholly independent of the establishment, which is another reason many of us gravitated towards Perry.
But the crowded field ensured any Governor was going to have to fend off rambunctious terriers trying to gain attention by nipping at their heels.
Notice Bachmann going off after first Pawlenty, then Perry.
Cain too made the process look patently absurd.
All of that kept out others who might, probably SHOULD HAVE, jumped in.
Sean| 1.21.12 @ 6:21PM
He should have skipped NH along with all the other contests coming up because he has no chance to win the nomination.
Drek| 1.21.12 @ 6:34PM
You're forgetting the sweater vest.
He needed to skip that too..........
Bob Grant| 1.21.12 @ 6:57PM
Well, that's part of his 'schtick', a way to stand out.
If he wins the nomination, I'll go out and buy one myself in full solidarity with the opponent of obama.
Heck, If our nominee wore nothing but black dress socks, white shoes, and a jockstrap I'd be right behind him. Well, actually not RIGHT behind him but you get my point.
Drek| 1.21.12 @ 9:11PM
You must be feeling charitable Bob.
That sweater vest is one hell of a stretch. Of course there's another rationale available, which is probably more likely by the way, that is that his sense of style is out of it!
You got to look the part.
That's one of Romney's strong suits, by the way, {and to avail myself of a double entendre}.
Appear the man, act like the man, you want to be.
Remember Carrie Grant's quip, "that Carrie Grant didn't exist until I invented him."
If Gingrich knew he was likely to jump in, he should have lost weight.
Look at Mitt Romney's wife, who made sure she dropped fifty pounds, so that she would look attractive in the public eye. I appreciate her effort. It's just another example of the Romney's meticulousness in their campaigning.
That's says something positive about them.
Bob Grant| 1.21.12 @ 9:58PM
Well if dress and appearance is that important, then lets just keep Jug Ears in office.
Skinny, "clean" (Joe Biden's description), and well dressed.
He's everything you're looking for. Carry Grant would be proud.