-
John Kerry, Secretary of Gaffes
April 25, 2013 | 9 comments
-
Rand Paul and Marco Rubio at CPAC
March 14, 2013 | 0 comments
-
SEQUESTER: The Dumbest Weight-Loss Plan Ever
March 1, 2013 | 0 comments
-
Israel’s Hard-Right Turn That Wasn’t
January 22, 2013 | 1 comment
-
Deep Space Nine, Twenty Years Later
January 3, 2013 | 23 comments
The Spectacle Blog
The final PPP poll of South Carolina — possibly the last poll of the Palmetto State that we’ll see, and as of this morning the only telephone poll that includes interviews from yesterday, with voters who had seen the news about Rick Perry withdrawing and endorsing Newt Gingrich, the comments from Gingrich’s ex-wife Marianne, and the Thursday night debate — shows everything coming up Newt:
Newt Gingrich heads into South Carolina election day as the clear front runner in the state: he’s now polling at 37% to 28% for Mitt Romney, 16% for Rick Santorum, and 14% for Ron Paul.
Gingrich’s lead has actually increased in the wake of his ex-wife’s controversial interview with ABC. Although one night poll results should always be interpreted with caution, he led the final night of the field period by a 40-26 margin. One thing that continues to work to his advantage are the debates. 60% of primary voters report having watched the one last night, and Gingrich has a 46-23 lead with those folks.
The other reason his ex-wife’s interview isn’t causing him much trouble is that there’s a lot of skepticism about it. Only 31% of voters say they think her accusations are true while 35% think they are false and 34% are unsure. 51% of voters say that they have ‘no concerns’ about what came out in the interview.
But PPP’s Tom Jensen adds:
Usually when we poll in the closing days before an election and find someone ahead by 9 points we’ll say with a pretty high degree of confidence that person’s going to win. I’m not comfortable saying that about South Carolina. A primary election with a lot of new news in the closing days for voters to absorb is fertile ground for a final result that’s at odd with the polls… Gingrich will probably win tomorrow- but there’s a higher than normal chance for a surprise given everything that’s gone down in the last 48 hours.
A surprising break in Romney’s favor seems unlikely at this point; the only Romney victory scenario that makes sense is a late bounce for Santorum that draws disproportionately from Gingrich, and there’s no data to suggest that this is happening. But it’s worth noting that expectations are such that it would be devastating to Newt’s candidacy if he somehow doesn’t win. Romney, who has plenty of money and a big head start in Florida, will live to fight another day (and, indeed, will remain the favorite to win the nomination) no matter what happens today; the same can’t be said for Gingrich.
View all comments (12) | Leave a comment
More Blog Posts by John Tabin
http://spectator.org/blog/2012/01/21/newts-great-expectations
Follow us:
ADVERTISEMENT
SPONSORED LINKS
FLASHBACK TO: 1995
-
Pope Culture
A man of faith in a godless age is hitting Americans where it hurts.
-
Why the GOP Does Not, Like, Totally Suck
Mr. and Mrs. American Spectator Reader, let P.J. O’Rourke talk sense to your kids.
-
Dames at Sea
-
In the Absence of Guns
In Britain, defending your property can get you life.
-
The Metaphysical Martini
-
Counting the Costs of Clintonism
The debacle of this president’s administration is both a cause and a symptom of the decline of American values. Unless Congress impeaches him, that decline will go on unchecked. An eminent jurist surveys the damage and assesses the chances for the recovery of our culture.
-
Chuck McHagel
It won’t take long for conservatives to scratch this presidential wannabe off their 2008 scorecard.
-
The Legacy of Old John and Mother Fresh-Roasted
-
It’s the Best Time of the Year
The American Christmas, like the songs that celebrate it, makes room for everybody under the rainbow. Is that why so many people seem to be hostile to it?
-
The Bush Crack-Up
Was the President done in by the economy, or by the politics of the economy?
Clip of the Day
ADVERTISEMENT
Clint| 1.21.12 @ 9:37AM
" Republican presidential candidate Newt Gingrich has taken the top spot for the first time in poll averages compiled by The New York Times and Real Clear Politics for Saturday’s South Carolina primary.
The Times average has the former House speaker leading former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, 35.4 percent to 32.7 percent. Texas Rep. Ron Paul takes third place with 16 percent and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum is fourth with 12.9 percent."
Bob Buoy| 1.21.12 @ 3:57PM
Newt would be a disaster as President. Newt would be the Republican version of Obama - excites some of the base but is incompetent at governing. His questionable ethics, vast ego and arrogance would lead to the conservative cause being tarnished for years. PLEASE DO NOT VOTE FOR NEWT!!!
Mike| 1.21.12 @ 9:49AM
People may have doubts about whether or not the accusations about wanting an open marriage are true, but there can be no doubt about the rest of the tawdry details of Newt's marital history. For those who need bias confirmation, Newt's daughters, who are in no position to know, fill the bill.
Interested Conservative| 1.21.12 @ 12:21PM
And your conclusion is . . . ?
Mike| 1.21.12 @ 1:23PM
Newt's marital history is well known and whether or not the open marriage request is added to that history makes little difference.
The religious right heavyweights have endorsed Santorum. It will be interesting to see if they exert any appreciable influence on the campaign.
Drek| 1.21.12 @ 1:07PM
So his daughters were in "no position to know?"
And you're an expert on familial domesticity, is that it, so that you're able to pronounce, and pronounce with certainty, that his daughters knew nothing.
It might come as some news to you that there are families where the wife KNOWS, where thus the daughters EQUALLY KNOW, because mothers often chirp about everything with their daughters.
Not everything is a state secret.
Gingrich and the 2d wife were living apart for HALF A DECADE, and briefly tried to make a go of it still. That effort failed, Gingrich went on to greener pastures with Callista.
And Callista, for whatever might be said of her, has CLEARLY and DEMONSTRABLY altered the old Newt that all of us knew about.
I don't care about his marital woes.
I don't care if he's got a thing for younger flesh. So do I............. I'm in my 40s, I rail women in their 20s, don't think twice about it.
But what DOES concern me is that Washington is dragging Uncle Sam down, {obama is but the latest incarnation of a problem that really originates in the mindset that dominates inside the Beltway}.
Mike| 1.21.12 @ 1:28PM
Drek,
Your third paragraph isn't the strongest case that could be made for Newt's daughters knowing anything beyond what Newt has told them.
Your seventh and eighth paragraphs make it clear why you could care less about Gingrich's marital woes.
Maybe some day you will find your Callista.
somnolence| 1.21.12 @ 1:10PM
You had better look at OTHER polls besides PPP. The race between Gingrich and Romney will be razor thin, with Romney still gathering delegates in addition to his upcoming Florida win, where they have already been voting for weeks. Romney is simply one giant step ahead there.
somnolence| 1.21.12 @ 1:15PM
Reuters has Romney in the lead in S.C. by 12 points, and I rely on that as much as I do PPP. We all can pick our favorite polls, but usually, Rasmussen IS the most accurate.
Oldefarte| 1.21.12 @ 2:42PM
New't ex-wife no doubt [as most ex's are prone to] has an AXE-TO-GRIND in her attempts to politically slander him, and also no doubt was PAID BY ABC for her rating-busting interview. Whether true or not, its not important and should be discounted by voters!!!!!!!!
Interested Conservative| 1.21.12 @ 3:42PM
I seriously hope she made a ton of money, and seriously think she mistoook an "open marriage" for a simple divorce request. I suspect "open marriage" is an attempt by ABC, and the MSM, to be the "gravitas" of this election season. We've heard enough about abortion, gay marriage, and don't care about contraceptive policy, so they're still casting about for the buzz word.
None of them will be nearly enough to drown out $5.00/gal. gas.
bill| 1.21.12 @ 3:12PM
Newt Gingrich is no perfect, but he is the "Shadow" of Reagan. He's about to write an epic comeback of the history of American politics. We won't rest until Obama is defeated and Newt becomes the POTUS.