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The Spectacle Blog
Obviously, conservatives who don't want to see Mitt Romney as the Republican nominee have good reasons to hope that South Carolina disrupts his coronation (or at least I think so). Even some Romney supporters believe a longer campaign will be good for both his candidacy and the party (Ramesh Ponnuru makes precisely that case here).
If you'll pardon the Clinton-era pun, this partly depends on what the meaning of "longer" is. Newt Gingrich lags behind in organization, is having trouble getting on some primary ballots, and can be undisciplined. So it stands to reason that the well-funded, methodical Romney should like his odds in a protracted nomination fight. But such a battle would also have its downsides for the former Massachusetts governor.
An early-state sweep would have contained, and maybe eliminated outright, Romney's Southern problem. Romney trailed Herman Cain and then Gingrich in many Southern states. If he wins South Carolina, Gingrich could go on to beat Romney in many of those primaries. To win the nomination, Romney will then have to amass many delegates in states that aren't as red. That's doable, but suboptimal in terms of pleasing the base ahead of a closely contested general election.
An even worse scenario for Romney: his numbers have just risen in part because Republicans have been acclimating -- resigning? -- themselves to him nomination. But what if the shattering of his inevitability makes those numbers fall again? Then Romney could have a much bigger problem than pleasing disaffected Southern Republicans in the fall.
Of course, much will depend on how the South Carolina results influence Florida. Romney is already favored in Nevada and Michigan, so if Gingrich can't beat him in Florida the whole conversation becomes moot.
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More Blog Posts by W. James Antle, III
http://spectator.org/blog/2012/01/20/romneys-south-carolina-risks
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bill| 1.20.12 @ 4:14PM
Romney's problems
-RomneyCare
-pro abortion
-pro gay marriage
-pro gun control
-pro climate change
He cannot win in SC, in which liberty and values dominate the ballot.
bill| 1.20.12 @ 4:54PM
Romney is the most vulnerable candidate in SC, an inch closer to losing SC to Gingrich.
USSAlabama| 1.20.12 @ 5:00PM
Newt hasn't won a single primary out of all of three!
Gee...three so far. Santorum and Mitt have both won delegates from the previous 2.
Hopefully the 3 will stay in a while longer and I wish Perry had done so as well.
ANY of these guys are better than what we have.
Clint| 1.20.12 @ 6:29PM
" CBS Poll: Independents Prefer Ron Paul Vs Obama
In a head to head match up with incumbent President Barack Obama, the indie voter chooses Ron Paul, a CBS News poll suggested on Monday.
A total of 47% of independent voters said they would choose Ron Paul compared to 45% of independent voters choosing Mitt Romney against Obama, and 41% of independents saying they would choose Rick Santorum. If a Paul-Obama showdown were ever to take place, 47% of independent voters would vote for Paul, 81% republicans and 10% Democrats for a total of 45% of the vote. Obama would get just 40% of the independent vote in that contest, with 85% of the Democrats choosing Obama and 9% of Republicans choosing the President on election day in November. Obama would win the general election by a narrow one point margin if the election was held today between the two."
The Tea Party Rebellion Is In South Carolina.
Bob Grant| 1.20.12 @ 7:57PM
In the not-too-distant future, Clint, there will be THREE podiums left on the debate stage.
Your boy will be sent back to the House as the longest running back-benching congressman in recent memory.
At that point I'll refer to him as Mr. Senior Back Bencher.
Clint| 1.21.12 @ 12:22AM
More Mittenite RINO-CINO Shuck & Jive Trash Talk From One Of Mittens' Kittens, Grant.
The Tea Party Rebellion Steps On Mittens' Tail.
Oldefarte| 1.21.12 @ 2:48PM
Hope ya boy doesn't trip over his....TOO SHORT SHORTS perhaps?????????
JmsA| 1.20.12 @ 10:29PM
How can you give any credence to anything from CBS?
Clint| 1.21.12 @ 2:12AM
How Can You Give Credence To Chickenhawks ?
The Tea Party Rebellion Steps On The Chickenhawks.
Oldefarte| 1.21.12 @ 2:50PM
What instead give credence to someone looking up womens' skirts????????
Mike| 1.21.12 @ 12:10AM
The race is shaping up to be a real brouhaha between the nasty Tea Party candidate (Newt) and the corporate elite's candidate, Romney.
aware| 1.21.12 @ 8:03AM
Gingrich....Tea Party candidate. Now it truly is surreal.
Mike| 1.21.12 @ 9:15AM
As has been the GOP campaign to date.
Clint| 1.21.12 @ 12:05PM
" the opposition to Romney has been led by conservative grassroots writers and activists, as well as groups like FreedomWorks. Gingrich isn’t much more popular among that contingent than Romney. In May, when Gingrich sharply criticized Paul Ryan’s Medicare reform plan, FreedomWorks Chairman Dick Armey reminded National Review that Gingrich had been a serial offender:
Citing Gingrich’s support of Dede Scozzafava in the 2009 congressional election in New York’s 23rd district, his backing of Medicare Part D and TARP, and his commercial with Nancy Pelosi about climate change, Armey observes that “Newt entered the race with serious ground to make up with these 2 million Tea Party activists.”…
Brendan Steinhauser, director of Federal and State Campaigns for FreedomWorks, reports that the Tea Partiers he’s talked to are “irate” at Gingrich… “I never met a single Tea Party activist that supported Newt Gingrich for president,” he adds."
The Tea Party Rebellion Is In South Carolina.
Oldefarte| 1.21.12 @ 2:51PM
I'm for whoever wins and can beat Obama/Democrats!!!!!!!