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The Spectacle Blog
The Internet and TV news are all atwitter, if you’ll pardon the pun, about Newt Gingrich’s second wife, Marianne, telling ABC that Newt asked her for an “open marriage” so he could keep sleeping with Callista Bisek — now Gingrich’s third wife — with Marianne’s blessing.
While “values voters” will not be pleased with Gingrich’s version of marital fidelity, betting odds show precisely zero negative reaction to the news. Instead, the news that Mitt Romney may not have won Iowa along with Rick Perry’s dropping out of the race are beginning to solidify Newt’s possible position as The Non-Romney. Romney’s botched handling of demands to see his tax returns are also damaging the view of his inevitability, at least in South Carolina.
In less than 48 hours, based on betting at intrade.com, Gingrich’s odds of winning Saturday’s South Carolina primary have exploded from about 15 percent to 40 percent while Romney’s odds have sagged from 85 percent to 60 percent. Rick “Hey, I won Iowa!” Santorum is trading under 1 percent to win the Palmetto State.
Bettors are not placing too much weight on South Carolina as a barometer for the whole nominating enchilada, with Gingrich’s odds going from about 5 percent to 10 percent, but with Romney remaining a prohibitive 84 percent favorite, down from about 91 percent.
Separate from the betting odds, part of the ABC interview of the former Mrs. Gingrich strikes me as more interesting and perhaps almost as subconsciously damaging in the minds of values voters as Newt’s inability to honor his marriage vows: Gingrich told his ex-wife that “Callista doesn’t care what I do.” Is a platinum-helmeted “prissy” home-wrecker really who social conservatives want sleeping in the White House? I wouldn’t bet on it.
Bill Hussein O'Stalin| 1.19.12 @ 2:49PM
The news cycle was after Romney all week trying to destroy him. They hoped to knock him out and have this story knock Newt out. It isn't working because Obama is bad by comparison to all.
Mimi| 1.19.12 @ 6:31PM
Bill...There certainly not DONE....They'll wreak their HAVOC...We need to rise above all the dirty/scum and laugh it off AND at them...failing to attract our attention!
Oldefarte| 1.19.12 @ 2:56PM
OMG, we have a group of domestic terrorist/socialists running this country into the economic/financial graveyard-toilet, and all we're concerned with is someone's marriages etc? What did Gump say about STUPIDITY? No wonder we collectively and STUPIDLY elected our current president on 11/4/08!!!!!!!!
SpiralArchitect| 1.19.12 @ 6:27PM
+1
Dai Alanye | 1.19.12 @ 3:02PM
An "analyst" who looks to betting odds for political guidance. Just what I'd want in a financial adviser.
Ross Kaminsky | 1.19.12 @ 5:05PM
Dai,
This line of criticism of yours is getting boring.
Writing about the odds is fun and interesting, especially when the odds change a lot or differ dramatically from the then-current media narrative.
Separately, I am not a financial adviser. I offer my opinion from time to time, but I only trade my own money (not that I'm a rich guy) and I don't have any customers or clients and I'm not a broker.
SpiralArchitect| 1.19.12 @ 6:30PM
I remember when reading TAS was fun & interesting. These days I am broker.
Occam's Tool| 1.19.12 @ 6:44PM
I don't know, Ross. Newt has a lot of good ideas, and did a lot of good things as Speaker. Certainly, I would sleep safer knowing that Gingrich was the guy with his finger on the button, or Santorum, than Obama.
It is starting to get very interesting here. Honestly, I was reading in The Weekly Standard where we might want a large beta Candidate to run against Obama, rather than Romney---a Reagan v. Carter matchup versus a Dewey v. Truman. Romney is more like Dewey than Newt or Rick.
(By the way, Dewey really DID look like the little man on top of the Wedding Cake. Eerie....)
Newt would destroy Obama in debates, and I think he WOULD use Reverend Wright and Ayers, etc. It would be a lovely explosive campaign.
Gadfly| 1.19.12 @ 3:16PM
I think it's already priced into his stock. Unlike Cain, these allegations aren't a surprise. I doubt that his ex will do anything other than make ratings for ABC (if that).
handsoffmyhealth| 1.19.12 @ 3:17PM
Didn't the 2nd Mrs. Gingrich commit the same adultery with Newt, prior to her marriage to him? Isn't she a homewrecker AND a hypocrite?
Dai Alanye | 1.19.12 @ 4:04PM
The importance of this revelation is not that Newt is a less active serial adulterer than Slick Willy. The significant detail is his narcissism in asking wife #2 to admire his greatness and accept the position of part-time squeeze. Newt-the-adulterer might possibly have reformed, but Newt of the grandiose ego remains front and center.
Mike 3/505| 1.19.12 @ 5:30PM
If he can get our economy out of the dumper, I'd be willing to loan him one of my (ex) wives.
Regards,
Mike
Pete| 1.19.12 @ 3:18PM
Do these betting odds reflect the past betting or do they only reflect the current betting. It makes a big difference.
Ross Kaminsky | 1.19.12 @ 5:01PM
Pete, it's current betting, and it can change rapidly when there's news.
martin j smith| 1.19.12 @ 3:45PM
Its the smear of the smear tactics that stands out I will ( not with great enthusaism but more with anger at the Communists and their media acolytes) support Newt not Romney.
Casey Abell| 1.19.12 @ 4:12PM
Russ, Intrade is poll-driven. Gingrich had a really good day today in the SC polls. If the final polls out Friday and Saturday show Newt stalling or outright falling, Intrade will turn on a dime against Gingrich.
Casey Abell| 1.19.12 @ 4:22PM
Should make it clear that all those good polls for Gingrich today were conducted before the open-marriage story hit, but after Newt's good debate. Intrade promptly reacted to the polls, but it's interesting that Romney still holds the edge.
As good as the polls today were for Gingrich, you'd expect a complete flip to Newt as favorite. Hasn't happened as bettors are clearly nervous about the ex's story. The action will really begin when we get the final polls.
Ross Kaminsky | 1.19.12 @ 5:02PM
Casey,
I do realize there are factors driving the betting which you and I might think are over- or under-weighted.
Just to clarify, though, Intrade itself isn't poll driven as it is not a book-making operation. All the prices are determined like the stock market by people entering buy and sell orders. Actually it's more of a free market than the stock market since there is no "specialist".
Margie| 1.19.12 @ 4:34PM
If Newt didn't actually say what his ex is saying he said, (that he asked to be permitted to cheat), he needs to say so.. otherwise he's DONE.
Kingofthenet| 1.19.12 @ 4:36PM
"Callista doesn't care what I do."
The REASON she doesn't care, is she didn't marry Newt for Love, but instead Money and Power.If those things dry up expect a quick divorce.
W| 1.19.12 @ 6:00PM
King
I am shocked, shocked. I thought you were a sentimentalist. I thought John Kerry married Teresa $900,000,000 for love. And here I thought Hillary and Bill didn't divorce becuse of love, and not those nasty right wing stories that it was a political deal.
Kingofthenet| 1.19.12 @ 6:13PM
Maybe John liked the Ketchup?
Occam's Tool| 1.19.12 @ 6:45PM
It's good ketchup, but fairly cheap at the Wal-Mart.
martin j smith| 1.19.12 @ 5:18PM
Margie there is no one out there who is pure of virtue and this theatre of the MSM media you buy ?
I am 100% certain hat our religious outlooks are miles apart but do you want 4 years of Obama again ? I question the motives of the MSM and have decided that they are nothing but a political organ of Obama. So I cannot let them get away with this craperoo. Can you ?
SpiralArchitect| 1.19.12 @ 6:33PM
Ham Sandwich would get my vote over Zero
___________
Vote Totalitarian
Obama '12
Margie| 1.19.12 @ 8:40PM
Martin,
I am steadfast. I always vote for the Repub nominee and I think it's going to be Newt or Romney, possibly Santorum.
And I'm one of those posting here for a couple of years that NO ONE IS PUREn so we agree.
I'm just making the point that Newt IN MY OPINION needs to at least say with his mouth: I never said that, or I never asked her to accept Adultery.
If he can't at least SAY that, I say he's pretty disgusting as a human being.
Repentance has to do with telling the truth about your SIN. Without it, there is NO TRUE repentance.
I just think he'll lose a lot of conservative votes.. I guess he got applause for not answering the question, but to me it isn't respectable.
And I will still vote for whoever becomes the nominee because the goal is to oust the Marxist-in-chief in the peoples House.
Martin, you and I agree I'd say just about 100%. My point is a moral one.. why shouldn't he at least say he never did that, to me he's admitting that he did by not denying it.
MSM or no MSM.
Look at the SCUMBAGS here who constantly LIE about me here.. it's like I have to constantly refute their despicable and disgusting lies.. WHY??
Because I give a damn.
I think he should, too. Just my opinion.
To me, I want Newt or Santorum. No matter their imperfections.. and ever since I've voted, I always vote for the Repub nominee.
SO: Anybody but Obama 2012 is still my motto!
YOU are one of the BEST, Martin. THANKS FOR YOUR COMMENT!
Mrs. Vito| 1.19.12 @ 6:05PM
Ross, maybe if this were a 'normal election', the holier- than- thou- crowd would have more voting sway. But this is just not news; 50% of the marriages in this country end in divorce, and there's usually an agry ex-spouse.
America as we know it is about to implode if B.O. is re-elected, and in Newt we have a fighter.
Listen, I'm a Reagan conservative, and I doubt that Newt will sell us down the river, so this is a total non-issue with me.
Occam's Tool| 1.19.12 @ 6:47PM
If Newt's the guy, I contribute $500 to the campaign and vote the Chicago way---early and often! Heh, heh! ;-)
Dan| 1.19.12 @ 6:19PM
Not a family untouched by divorce.
Most divorces are not untouched by bitterness, major league bitterness.
But we're supposed to allow the country's fate to be decided by the ragings of some bitter harpy who sees her exhusband with his lovely wife out there and goes ballistic.
I don't think so.
Too damn much is at stake to give two damns about Gingrich's ex.
SpiralArchitect| 1.19.12 @ 6:40PM
As evidenced by the propulson of the current POTUS to the White House one cannot seriously rely upon his fellow man & his intelligence.
Mimi| 1.19.12 @ 6:37PM
After today....Mitts looking kind of boring.
It's fun to try and predict but in the END and they count it with presision (IOWA) The people SPEAK...God Bless Them .....America knows in thier core who to vote for..and it usually just what the nation NEEDS.
Margie| 1.19.12 @ 9:22PM
Interesting, isn't it, Mimi?? It is getting heated up now with the lukewarm ones dropping out and the ones meaning it remaining in.. except Michele.. she DID mean it and what a great woman she is for getting in the arena!!
This debate tonight is in my eyes very good and I am still proud to see Newt, Rick and even Romney.. though Romney is my least fave.. stay in the fight and seem to WANT the Presidency.
I think it's down to Newt or Santorum but though Newt has his foibles.. I still say it may be HIS TIME.. we shall see!!
Rosie| 1.19.12 @ 9:41PM
If I read the timeline correctly, it appears that Newt and Marianne were separated when he started dating Calista. It seems that marriage #2 was very rocky - on and off again over a long period.
I also heard Marianne say that Newt told her she needed to share Newt just like Calista. I think Newt meant she had to share him with his adoring fans - not with another woman. She must have been suffocating him. Just another point of view.
Margie| 1.19.12 @ 10:44PM
He simply could have said that.. but didn't.