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The Spectacle Blog
So it turns out that Rick Santorum won the Iowa Caucus after all. By 34 votes.
But does that matter 48 hours before the South Carolina Primary?
Unless there is a swift backlash against Newt Gingrich over the ABC interview with his ex-wife, I doubt it. I suspect that most Republican primary voters will see a) a woman who has a score to settle and b) a liberal network that views Mitt Romney as an easier opponent for President Obama than Newt and thus wants to torpedo Newt’s candidacy.
O.K., but what if we knew sixteen days ago what we know now?
Again, if Santorum had been declared the winner in the early morning of January 4th, I don’t think it changes all that much. As I wrote very early that morning as the votes were still being tabulated, Santorum won Iowa regardless of the result. But five days before the vote, I wrote that even if Santorum won Iowa his social conservatism wouldn’t serve him well in New Hampshire and that while he would be more warmly received in South Carolina he would be most viable alternative to Romney if Bachmann, Perry and Newt were out of the picture.
Well, Santorum didn’t do well in New Hampshire. While Bachmann and Perry are both out of the picture, Newt got a second wind and Romney is feeling a heavy breeze while Santorum’s sails have stilled. Of course, the 2012 GOP race has been a lot like the weather. Wait around five minutes. If Santorum finds a way to connect with the debate audience tonight, Newt stumbles, Romney babbles while Paul does his impersonation of a Taliban spokesman, it could change yet again. But those are big ifs.
View all comments (4) | Leave a comment
More Blog Posts by Aaron Goldstein
http://spectator.org/blog/2012/01/19/does-santorum-winning-iowa-mat
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Anommynous| 1.19.12 @ 1:34PM
It will take that talking point (i.e. sweeping the first three contests) away from Romney and his Establishment lackeys, and it fogs the Romney aura of inevitability. Between this and the Newt's ex-wife, I expect Rick Santorum will pick up enough votes that he'll at least beat Ron Paul for third place in South Carolina.
Anommynous| 1.19.12 @ 3:16PM
Now, that being said, I think it does give Santorum a rationale to stay in until Florida, at least. Just think, if Newt wins in South Carolina, we'll have three different candidates winning the first three states. Why should any of them drop out?
And if Newt doesn't win South Carolina, well, maybe the people of South Carolina should have chosen Rick Santorum as their not-Romney, since he already beat Newt in the first two states and doesn't have Newt's personal baggage for ABC to showcase two days before the primary.
Pete| 1.19.12 @ 1:55PM
Not hearing Karl Rove talk about Romney's two unprecedented victories makes a difference. Hearing Rove on Hannity, made me realized he has become completely befuddled. He stuttered and stammered so much he sounded like Obama.
I think Palin said it that we must keep this process going longer. Romney is really just starting to get vetted. Whether we move forward with 3 or 4 candidates doesn't matter right now. We now know we want someone who is going to lay the wood on Obama. We will sort out policy after the election. For now: Get rid of Obama, get rid of ObamaCare, get rid of Democratic Cronies, get rid of 100,000 onerous rules and laws. Get rid of unneeded federal workers. Get rid of the 30 odd czars. In fact follow Newts first day in office plan and we will move forward from there.
kingsmill| 1.19.12 @ 5:46PM
Willard shows strength in a Rino, NE state, a primary dominated by libs from MA, and he is dubbed "inevitable"?