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The Spectacle Blog
Quin raises an interesting question about why voters seem to like a winner. I think many of us who write about politics for a living — or who comment frequently on political websites — fail to appreciate that many voters pay only casual attention to election campaigns. The media through which such voters do follow the campaign isn’t always sympathetic to conservative insurgent candidates. Finally, perception matters. There’s a strong case to be made against Mitt Romney’s electability but the perception is he’s the strongest general election candidate. Rick Santorum’s underfunded campaign and Newt Gingrich’s haphazard one have struggled to alter those perceptions.
There are two questions I’ve heard more than any other while covering the early phases of the 2012 campaign. Why does Iowa or New Hampshire get to pick my party’s nominee for me? And who cares about these little states? Wake me when a state with significant electorate votes casts its ballots. The answer to the first question is: Iowa and New Hampshire don’t have the power — or the delegates — to determine the nominee. It is just an observable fact how a candidate performs in those states has substantial impact on how they do going forward. That also answers the second question: by the time those big states vote, the primary campaign may be largely over.
In defense of the early states, however, I’d note that they are the very places that prize retail politics and afford the ability to run relatively low-budget campaigns. If we just immediately shifted to primary votes in huge, expensive media markets, the race would probably be even less competitive than it is now. Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina allow the other Republicans to compete with Romney on something approaching even terms.
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More Blog Posts by W. James Antle, III
http://spectator.org/blog/2012/01/16/frontrunner-syndrome
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Dixie Pixie| 1.16.12 @ 5:31PM
The McGovern Electoral Reforms were designed to disenfranchise the majority of voters in favor of the North-Eastern Socialists.
The New York financiers decide who gets the resources to run in the Money Primary.
The MSM decides what the issues are going to be and what candidate is allowed to speak and when and on what subject.
The MSM also decides what is proper conduct and what candidates have stepped over the line and must drop out in the MSM Pre-Primary .
Finally a few small states window the race to the front runner so the majority of voters get the choice of voting the Republican and Democratic Primary winners already decided.
All through the process North-Eastern Socialists control the process for their benefit.
Why the Republicans put up with this process is anyone’s guess.
Clint| 1.16.12 @ 6:32PM
We Are Being Set Up By The RINO-CINO Flunkie Stooges For The Ruling Elites' Frontman Mittens Romney.
These Are The RINO-CINO Flunkie Stooges Who Gave Us The Serial Traitor To Conservatism, John McCain Of McCain-Feingold, McCain-Kennedy,McCain-Lieberman,Gang Of 14, Opposing Bush Tax Cuts Of 2001 & 2003,TARP.
Now They Are Trying To Give Us RomneyCare,TARP, Cynical Flip-Flops On Abortion, Gays, Refuses to Sign Pro-Life Pledge, Illegal Immigrants, "Little Chain Saw Al" At Bain, Crony Capitalism Campaign Money Trail.....
The Tea Party Rebellion Is In South Carolina.
Dixie Pixie| 1.16.12 @ 7:38PM
Clint....Do you have a set of ASCII strings preloaded into a QuickKey type keyboard program?
Most of your posts are the same ASCII string of no particular relevance to the subject at hand.
You certainly do not add any knowledge in your posts thus making your posts redundant and unpersuasive.
Could you try to make a rational argument.
Or steal some new material.
You have become the worst of all corespondents, boring and redundant.
Try harder Clint.
Clint| 1.16.12 @ 7:41PM
Some Day We'll Explain It To You, Dicky Prick.
" CNN Poll: Obama tied with Romney & Paul in November showdowns
Washington (CNN) – Mitt Romney is all tied up with President Barack Obama in a likely general election matchup, with the president showing signs of weakness on the economy and Romney seen as out of touch with ordinary Americans, according to a new national survey.
And a CNN/ORC International Poll released Monday also indicates that Rep. Ron Paul of Texas is also even with Obama in another possible showdown this November. The survey also suggests the Republican advantage on voter enthusiasm is eroding, which could be crucial in a close contest."
The Tea Party Rebellion Steps On Mittens' Tail.
Martin | 1.16.12 @ 7:21PM
I agree with both the above comments.
Whatever the GOP does in 2016, it MUST remove Iowa from the process. Twice in succession it has promoted an unelectable economic leftists, who has proceeded to jam up the works and starve the decent candidates of oxygen.
Iowa is entirely subsidy dependant and 1000 miles from the nearest international border; it thus represents the most ignorant elements in the GOP voting coalition. Buckley said he wanted to be ruled by the first 500 names in the Boston phone book rather than the Harvard faculty, but to be ruled by the first 500 names in the Des Moines phone book is going altogether too far!
Barbara Espinosa | 1.16.12 @ 8:50PM
I was in Iowa and it was a sham. Voter Fraud in New Hampshire and Iowa AMERICAN FREEDOM by BARBARA: http://bit.ly/yTRwOg
My take if I was a presidential candidate I wouldn’t give the Iowa Caucus a first glance much less spend millions in advertising. The Iowans were all over the board right up until the time they write a candidate’s name on a scrap of paper to be counted as a ballot.
I was a surrogate speaker at a caucus for Perry. My take on the caucus is it’s a bunch of crap. I got to my assigned location early and stayed to watch the vote to be counted. I was told before I left Perry headquarters that there would be 3 precincts voting in my location with approximately 54 voters. 33 showed up to vote.
I asked the young man in charge a lot of questions and his answers will astound you. One you don’t have to present ID to vote. You can walk in the door and register on the spot. The voter signs in if he is already registered if not they give him a registration to fill out without asking for ID. Supposedly at 7PM after the gravel is bought down no one else can enter to vote. Not true a young man came in 30 minutes late and was allowed to vote. The process was the young man in charge (David) asked the group for a show of hands to decide if he could vote. They allowed him to vote.
Question: If they don’t have to present an ID how do you know they can vote in this precinct?
Answer: If they can give you their address, they can vote, if not we ask for ID
Question: They can walk in and register on the spot
Answer: Yes
Question: How do you know the Democrats aren’t walking in and registering to cast a vote for a candidate that the GOP wouldn’t nominate.
Answer: Shrugged his shoulders and said we don’t, but this is the way it’s been done for years.
Question: Do you have any way to know if they also registered in another precinct
Answer: No
Question: Is it possible they could vote in more than one precinct
Answer: I guess so
It’s not a primary, the rest of the process sounds even more antiquated. For Republicans it doesn’t count in the big scheme of electing a President. Since 1972 George W. Bush was the only Republican to win the Iowa Caucus and went on to be nominated by the GOP and President. It’s a bell weather so to speak and not a very good one. be ###
Dixie Pixie| 1.16.12 @ 9:12PM
Martin....How about this for a suggestion.
The Republicans should go to a tournament style competition.
--------------------------------------------------------------
Primary Election Rules
All states have their primary voting simultaneously on the same day.
The Primary voting days are on the second Tuesday of the month, starting in the January of the election year.
All candidates applying to be on the ballot must meet the state qualifications for that ballot by the first of November prior to the January voting.
All qualified candidates compete until all but one statewide favorite candidate emerges, no dropouts.
All qualified candidates are paired to each other candidate so the voter is given a choice between the better of two candidates.
The voter checks off the better of the paired candidates and the totals of that group are added state wide and the better candidate of that group goes to the next round next month, eliminating half of those starting the round.
The voting continues until all but one state winner emerges.
One final nationwide simple majority vote is held where all the state winners are on the same ballot nationwide.
That winner is declared the Primary candidate for the nationwide election.
Alternatively the statewide winner is awarded the states delegates and then goes to the national convention where the national candidate is selected by simple majority vote of delegates.
-----------------------------------------------------------
The advantages are, no one goes first and preselects the next states candidates.
All candidates are equally compared to each other so the best candidate emerges.
All states are treated equally so no one region or faction dominates.
What are your thoughts on a better Primary Electoral System.
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