-
SEQUESTER: The Horror!
March 1, 2013 | 4 comments
-
SOTU Preview: Human Props, Budget Fights, and Wedge Issues
February 12, 2013 | 0 comments
-
Hello, I Must Be Going
August 14, 2012 | 18 comments
-
Weekend Political Wrap-Up, Paul Ryan Edition
August 12, 2012 | 16 comments
-
Esquire Blogger Sees Paul Ryan, Shreds His Safety Net
August 11, 2012 | 13 comments
The Spectacle Blog
In the spirit of participatory democracy, I thought I’d discuss a few items that came up in the comments after the New Hampshire primary results.
1. Why is everyone crowning Mitt Romney when only two states have voted and no reliable red states have been heard from? It’s true: Romney won a narrow, disputed victory in Iowa, is weak in the South, and should be beatable in South Carolina. The problem is that Romney is currently leading in South Carolina and Florida. Where is the first state where he loses? At some point, momentum kicks in and the frontrunner becomes hard to beat.
The anti-Romney vote hasn’t coalesced around a single candidate. Nobody expected Rick Santorum or Newt Gingrich to win New Hampshire, but they both struggled to compete and finished below 10 percent. The less that is said about Rick Perry at this point, the better. What has happened that should inspire any confidence in anyone that one of these three candidates can get their act together and win the nomination?
2. Mitt Romney didn’t get [insert arbitrary percentage of the vote here]. Yes, even in Romney’s best state 61 percent of Republican primary voters cast ballots against him. But it is hard to get 50 percent, or even 45 percent, in a six-candidate race. Romney got a higher percentage of the vote in New Hampshire than John McCain did in 2008, and NH launched McCain to the nomination that year. I just don’t think this dog will hunt.
3. Why do you like Mitt Romney so much? I don’t. I still believe he will be vulnerable in the general election for every reason I outlined in my article from the March 2011 issue warning against his nomination, plus a deflated GOP base. But I do think he’s on track to win the nomination, barring a late resurgence from one of the candidates I mentioned in my first item.
4. Shut up about Ron Paul, he is only getting votes from left-wing Democrats and independents. Leaving aside the fact that a successful Republican nominee will need votes from Democrats and independents, this isn’t true. Yes, Paul is benefiting greatly from crossover votes and will have a harder time breaking through in the closed primary states. But Paul still finished second among self-described Republicans in New Hampshire (albeit a much more distant second). The exit polls show Paul tying for second among registered Republicans, ahead of Santorum. Paul tied for third among registered Republicans in Iowa, doubling his share of that vote since 2008. So Paul has improved with traditional Republicans too.
View all comments (7) | Leave a comment
More Blog Posts by W. James Antle, III
http://spectator.org/blog/2012/01/11/post-new-hampshire-qa
Follow us:
ADVERTISEMENT
Current Issue
- The Great Train Robbery
- The (Real) Great Divide
- Her Unrequited Letter
SPONSORED LINKS
FLASHBACK TO: 1995
-
Pope Culture
A man of faith in a godless age is hitting Americans where it hurts.
-
Why the GOP Does Not, Like, Totally Suck
Mr. and Mrs. American Spectator Reader, let P.J. O’Rourke talk sense to your kids.
-
Dames at Sea
-
In the Absence of Guns
In Britain, defending your property can get you life.
-
The Metaphysical Martini
-
Counting the Costs of Clintonism
The debacle of this president’s administration is both a cause and a symptom of the decline of American values. Unless Congress impeaches him, that decline will go on unchecked. An eminent jurist surveys the damage and assesses the chances for the recovery of our culture.
-
Chuck McHagel
It won’t take long for conservatives to scratch this presidential wannabe off their 2008 scorecard.
-
The Legacy of Old John and Mother Fresh-Roasted
-
It’s the Best Time of the Year
The American Christmas, like the songs that celebrate it, makes room for everybody under the rainbow. Is that why so many people seem to be hostile to it?
-
The Bush Crack-Up
Was the President done in by the economy, or by the politics of the economy?
Clip of the Day
H/T to National Review Online
ADVERTISEMENT
TJ Walker | 1.11.12 @ 12:43PM
Great ad on mocking Romney "I like being able to fire people" quote:
http://youtu.be/08jO53eJ5x8
Eric Dondero | 1.11.12 @ 1:03PM
Why do some of us like Romney so much? Easy James...
GOOD LOOKING GUY
Image matters in politics. And too often ideologues - both conservatives and libertarians - cast that away as a consideration.
We lost in 2008 cause we had a guy who looked like he was 80 friggin' years old, white, crinkly, and pale.
In 2012, let's not make the same mistake. Younger voters, and most certainly female voters, vote for different reasons than us white dudes. I challenge every one of you to watch how y'all's wife or girlfriend reacts to the TV reports on these presidential candidates. I watch my wife. And I bet everyone of y'all's spouses has the same reaction to mine. They don't talk about issues so much. It's how a candidate is dressed. How they react around their family. How they "feel" about a candidate that matters.
If we hadn't learned that from our disastrous 2008 loss, we'll never get it.
Bottom line: Image Matters, and Mitt Romney's image is utterly fantastic!!
Dai Alanye | 1.11.12 @ 1:35PM
Romney looks good physically, and projects enough gravitas to stand a chance of becoming President. His body language and speech patterns, however, often betray low confidence and internal conflict, probably stemming from the fact that he must maintain a facade of conservatism, and dishonestly portray himself as "not a politician" while claiming Bain was a big-time job creator.
In other words, when people complain of "plastic" Mitt it's just another way of saying he's phony. He can fool quite a few voters but the majority see through him at this point.
Clint| 1.11.12 @ 2:08PM
Uh Oh !
Here It Comes.
Winning Our Future | King of Bain "When Mitt Romney Came To Town"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_evS-T-c35M
The Tea Party Rebellion Heads To South Carolina.
Dai Alanye | 1.11.12 @ 1:40PM
It's a mistake to say Romney "won" Iowa. It was effectively a tie, with Santorum able to claim a moral victory. Romney's performance in New Hampshire was a definite victory but he failed to exceed expectations, and travels on to South Carolina with, at best, one and a half victories.
Clint| 1.11.12 @ 2:12PM
We Are Being Set Up By The RINO-CINO Flunkie Stooges For The Ruling Elites' Frontman Mittens Romney.
These Are The RINO-CINO Flunkie Stooges Who Gave Us The Serial Traitor To Conservatism, John McCain Of McCain-Feingold, McCain-Kennedy,McCain-Lieberman,Gang Of 14, Opposing Bush Tax Cuts Of 2001 & 2003,TARP.
Now They Are Trying To Give Us RomneyCare,TARP, Cynical Flip-Flops On Abortion, Gays, Refuses to Sign Pro-Life Pledge, Illegal Immigrants, "Little Chain Saw Al" At Bain, Crony Capitalism Campaign Money Trail.....
Romney Had The Third Lowest Job Growth As Governor Of Massachusetts.
Romney Is A Job Gravedigger.
The Tea Party Rebellion Is On The East Coast.
maryp | 1.12.12 @ 2:28PM
Republicans are misinformed about Paul. Much of the mainstream media ignores his conservative underpinnings. He is right on the Economy, right on Foreign Affairs and right on social security. Paul is the only GOP contender who can beat Obama cleanly and solidly. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Hvuru-Slls