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The Spectacle Blog
1. Many people are going to say Mitt Romney did not win by a large enough margin. To be sure, his weakness remain. But he took nearly 40 percent of the vote in a six-candidate race and the exit polls show him enjoying the support of broad cross-section of New Hampshire Republican primary voters. Good luck making that argument. He’s more than a step closer to the nomination.
2. None of the candidates who are best situated to stand against Romney in South Carolina — Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, and especially Rick Perry — did anything to help themselves tonight. Instead, they hurt themselves.
3. Some will argue that Santorum should have skipped New Hampshire rather than risk an embarrassing result. I offer three counterarguments: Pat Buchanan in 1996 proved social conservatives can do well in New Hampshire; Gingrich would likely have finished closer to Jon Huntsman without Santorum in the race, hurting the former senator anyway; it isn’t clear that bypassing New Hampshire bought Perry anything.
4. Ron Paul needed to finish ahead of Huntsman. He still would have enjoyed back-to-back top three finishes in Iowa and New Hampshire, a major coup. But losing the expecations a second week in a row would have demoralized a subset of his supporters and made it more difficult to channel their enthusiasm into productive purposes, like winning votes for Paul, as opposed to counterproductive ones, like more sign-waving at other candidates’ rallies or complaining about conspiracies against their candidate.
5. Paul is doing quite well at simultaneously building a movement within the GOP and attracting independents. No wonder he is upsetting his critics so.
View all comments (19) | Leave a comment
More Blog Posts by W. James Antle, III
http://spectator.org/blog/2012/01/11/parting-new-hampshire-thoughts
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Jack in Wi.| 1.11.12 @ 7:36AM
An intereting and mostly good commentary. In my opinion, the reason Huntsman was ever in the race was to split the libertarian vote in New Hampshire, for his fellow rich Mormon Romney. without Huntsman, Ron Paul would have won or come darn close.
martin j smith| 1.11.12 @ 7:46AM
But to what end Ron Paul--To me he =Obama so why bother ? And there are many like me. So--To what end Ron Paul. ?
Sean| 1.11.12 @ 8:07AM
I think Romney=Obama, or Newt=Obama, or Santorum=Obama is more like it. If you look at their records on the issues they are closer to Obama.
Clint| 1.11.12 @ 2:11PM
Uh Oh !
Here It Comes.
Winning Our Future | King of Bain "When Mitt Romney Came To Town"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_evS-T-c35M
The Tea Party Rebellion Heads To South Carolina.
Whuh huh?| 1.11.12 @ 2:11PM
You think Paul equals Obama?? In what ways?
Paul wants to cut a trillion dollars from the budget in the first year.
Paul wants to limit the federal government to those powers enumerated in the Constitution.
Paul wants to audit and eliminate the Fed.
What does Paul want to do that Obama would also do?
Zbigniew Mazurak| 1.11.12 @ 8:19AM
"5. Paul is doing quite well at simultaneously building a movement within the GOP and attracting independents. No wonder he is upsetting his critics so."
Wrong, Jimmy boy, wrong. Ron Paul is not supported by any Republicans except a few loons. The vast majority of his supporters are Democrats and leftist indies, but those people will vote for the Democratic nominee (read: Obama) in the general election no matter who the GOP nominee will be. He's not upsetting anyone. He's a mere asterisk. Like you.
Jack in Wi.| 1.11.12 @ 8:31AM
Ziggy: You talk like as fool. Ron Paul is tied with Obama in most polling. He is by far the most conservative guy to run for President since Warren Harding. All the rest are Wilsonian liberals. After all it was Wilson who gave us the the start of 100 years of warfare, the Federal Reserve, the income tax, the first UN, The League of Nations and a distruction of civil liberties during wartime. At least his war was declared. He and FDR are the 2 great historical hero's of Newt Gingrich.
Dai Alanye | 1.11.12 @ 10:39AM
Most of the Dems and many of the independents who feed Ron Paul half his votes will go back to Obama in the fall, even if by some miracle Paul were to gain the nomination.
Mark| 1.11.12 @ 10:27AM
A hypothetical question: In a race between Paul and Obama, for whom will the conservative populace vote? If Americans crave more of the same polarity in government, then they’ll vote for the status quo (i.e. Romney, Santorum, Huntsman, Gingrich, Perry, Obama).
Casey Abell| 1.11.12 @ 8:30AM
I'm not surprised that a Paul fan is living in an alternate universe. But this is special (even by Paul loonbat standards) after a 16-point crusher: "Many people are going to say Mitt Romney did not win by a large enough margin."
Yeah, they said the same about Reagan in 1984.
W. James Antle III | 1.11.12 @ 11:54AM
You are very selectively quoting my first observation. Right after saying that many people will try to argue that Romney didn't win by a big enough margin, I specifically say that those people are wrong.
Al Adab| 1.11.12 @ 12:00PM
Perhaps, Mr. Antle you can explain why any of us should be interested in the views of what republicans in blue states think about a potential nominee? The electoral votes of blue states such as NY, NJ, CA and IL will be such no matter who or what the GOP nominee may be. Our nominee must carry FL, NC, VA and Ohio or all is lost. Whether one can "compete" in blue states and lose closely matters not at all.
Al Adab| 1.11.12 @ 12:02PM
PS, to be clear I am NOT a Paul fan. I am however a Movement Conservative who has watched his party follow the accomodationists to defeat since this Romneys' father opposed the Conservative movement at its inception.
PattyMor| 1.11.12 @ 8:45AM
You are wrong about Paul being the most conservative candidate. Sure he runs his mouth about taking a Trillion Dollars out of the government, by slashing departments. But, unless he tackles entitlements, you can never reach balance. And, his foreign policy comes from George Soros' operatives. Sorry, but he doesn't pass muster.
Whuh huh?| 1.11.12 @ 2:15PM
Unless he tackles entitlements??? Paul is opposed to ALL of the entitlements. He would phase them out quickly and without trying to replace them with new federal programs at all.
His foreign policy is nothing like the Dems foreign policy. As he describes it, the Constitution requires that Congress declare war and we should follow the Constitution. If we are threatened we should declare war Constitutionally, define the mission, go in and win it and get out.
The Constitution is not dangerous.
Al Adab| 1.11.12 @ 10:21AM
Wasn't Romney predicted to win with about 45% of the vote. Failed to meet expectations might just go on his evaluation report.
Dai Alanye | 1.11.12 @ 10:43AM
New Hampshire in 2012 is far from the same state as in 1996. Had Buchanan run this time he would have mainly taken votes from Ron Paul not Rick Santorum.
Simon Templar| 1.11.12 @ 10:56AM
Such god damn fools. Those that have eyes let them see...
What you are witnessing, and many of you participated in, is the death of conservativism. It is not liberalism that is at its deathbed but rather conservativism. This was your last chance..god damn you all to hell.
Whuh huh?| 1.11.12 @ 2:18PM
It's not the death of conservatism, it's the death of neo-conservatism and big-government conservatism neither of which were really conservatism at all.
You've apparently passed from the denial phase to the anger phase in your grieving. Three more steps to go.