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The Spectacle Blog
The national unemployment rate fell to 8.5% in December 2011, its lowest level since February 2009. It has fallen 0.7% since June.
Although a good part of this decrease can be attributed to people dropping out of the labor market perception is nine-tenths reality. If the unemployment rate continues to trend downward it will, of course, improve President Obama’s re-election prospects in November.
However, economists are expecting slower growth in the first quarter of 2012 which will likely bring about an increase in the unemployment numbers. In which case, the Obama Administration will simply continue to say they inherited a bad economy. When in doubt blame Bush. So much for that new era of responsibility.
View all comments (29) | Leave a comment
More Blog Posts by Aaron Goldstein
http://spectator.org/blog/2012/01/06/thoughts-on-the-dec-2011-unemp
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Ken (Old Texican)| 1.6.12 @ 9:56AM
Aaron,
you know, in a sense the Soviet UNION CAME APART because of their lies...to themselves.
Clint| 1.6.12 @ 10:08AM
The U-6 Unemployment Rate Was 15.2 Percent.
Gadfly| 1.6.12 @ 10:23AM
... which is down from 15.6% last month and at its lowest level since Nov 2009.
Warrior | 1.6.12 @ 2:02PM
Wait until the seasonal jobs go away. It will shoot back up.
Doug| 1.6.12 @ 2:29PM
But is still based on a denominator that counts only people "looking" for work. They just count people for a longer period. But those who have given up and are not looking after 1 year are not in the U-6 either.
Clint| 1.6.12 @ 11:08AM
Which Is Sure To Appease The 15.2 Percent Unemployed.
Gadfly| 1.6.12 @ 11:36AM
I just don't understand what your point is. Unemployment is still bad, whether you look at the U-3 or U-6. Unemployment is improving slightly under both measures.
I get annoyed when people cite the U-6 just to make the numbers seem bigger (I also get annoyed with wind chill factor and heat index for the same reason).
Occam's Tool| 1.6.12 @ 4:33PM
Dear Gadfly,
I lived in Alabama and New Mexico and live in Minnesota. Let me clue you in.
When the base temp is Minus 26 outside, and the wind is moving briskly at 30, your fingers will start to freeze with 150 gram thinsulate gloves on (special ordered---Walmart and Target in Minnesota don't sell thicker than 40 grams), in a parka from LL Bean comfort rated at minus 45. Your arms will also start to chill, and you will shake. Without wind, you can wear short sleeve shirts underneath your Parka (as I do), and be OK, and your fingers will feel warm inside those same gloves.
In Las Cruces, New Mexico, in summer, when it hits 113 degrees (and I have been there), you will feel much more comfortable (as long as you get proper amounts of water) than you will feel in Cullman Alabama in June when the thermometer hits 90, because of the difference in humidity (and henc, heat index). I have walked outside in both places during summer.
Heat index and windchill makes perfect sense when you know what they truly mean and feel like. Of course, you need life experience. For example, 80 degrees in Rotorua, New Zealand is much more humid and damp (yes, I know they measure in Celsius there, but I converted for here) and uncomfortable than 95 in Las Cruces.
All that being said, Obama is going to continue to push numbers of unemployed up if he gets re-elected. He hates our country and its people. It shows in every thing that bastard does. I actually completely agree with Clint on this one. Obama has made this recession much more painful than it needed to be. The correct "stimulus" would have been a tax cut designed for the same amount. That would have gotten to the private sector appropriately.
Occam's Tool| 1.6.12 @ 4:34PM
Sorry, "hence."
Dixie Pixie| 1.6.12 @ 12:01PM
The unemployment numbers are certain to be quietly revised upwards in later months as most of the Federal Governments unemployment numbers have been.
Like the last election, numbers and facts are being distorted to make Obama look a lot better than he really is.
Clint| 1.6.12 @ 12:01PM
Figure It Out.
Those 15.2 Percent Unemployed Are Annoyed.
Dai Alanye | 1.6.12 @ 12:08PM
Republicans need to constantly stress the higher unemployment figure. Using "higher than 15%" is helpful, while "almost 20%" is better. The official unemployment rate is, after all, grossly misleading.
Wayne| 1.6.12 @ 12:33PM
If those people who "dropped out" of the employment market return because jobs increase, then the unemployment rate will actually go up.
Al Adab| 1.6.12 @ 12:48PM
The media has already begun reporting all the great economic news. We will hear every day how much better the economy is doing. Question is, will the voters believe it in November?
Dixie Pixie| 1.6.12 @ 1:24PM
Al...It is called the “Happy News” media strategy in which Obama's Great Depression is propagandized into its opposite.
The object is to reelect Obama by changing the public’s perception of the economy into a happy one.
Outright lying to the public has become the new normal.
Unfortunately, outright lying to the public worked enough to get Obama elected so he is trying to use it to get reelected.
Al Adab| 1.6.12 @ 1:56PM
Absolutely, but I think Grz below needs that facetious font.
Grzmlyk| 1.6.12 @ 2:10PM
I saw your post after I did mine, Al Adab, but as always you made the point succinctly.
Sadly, though, I was not being facetious. Pretty much everybody I know still thinks Obama is the best president EVER. The story line will be 1) look how great things are, all of a sudden; and/or 2) think how much worse it would be if a Republican were president!
And the sheep will gobble it up.
Al Adab| 1.6.12 @ 2:32PM
Sadly all too true, Grz.
Mike 3/505| 1.6.12 @ 4:27PM
A possible technique is to "stipulate" to a drop in unemployment. Then ask your buddies, just what is it that Obama did to cause such.
Occam's Tool| 1.6.12 @ 4:38PM
Grz, come to rural Minnesota. We'll go to my favorite Irish pub (there are two in town) and I will by you the pub food and brew of your choice and say yes to everything you say. On me.
Remember, 50% of all humans on Earth have IQs below 100. You just happen to be a bright pink Monkey among all the idiot brown monkeys. It's not your fault you're smarter and more erudite than those others! (I have the same problem sometimes. Fortunately, I married another pink monkey.)
Occam's Tool| 1.6.12 @ 4:38PM
Damn. "Buy." Offer still stands.
Pat| 1.6.12 @ 4:27PM
Dixie Pixie: You called it absolutely correct. Today’s Detroit Free Press is singing Obama’s praises relative to the drop in unemployment, although no one on their editorial staff is exactly sure what chain of events brought about this good news. And the rest of us might wonder why they even bother to sing Obama hymns since everyone in Detroit voted for Obama’s election, except for the City’s 3 Republican voters who have since moved back to Alabama after Ford laid them off. But the Free Press deftly wove a tale of “Obama Did It” without mentioning exactly how. Is the Stimulus finally kicking in after 3 years? Are Obama’s economic policies suddenly bearing golden fruit? Barack himself isn’t sure how he did it but you take the credit where you can grab it.
Amusingly enough, the Free Press, in a separate article, also outlined how Detroit’s mayor Dave Bing plans to layoff 1,000 city employees in an effort to save Detroit from bankruptcy this coming Spring – more unemployment on the way but surely not Obama’s fault. And those who didn’t attend Detroit’s high schools have the mathematical smarts to realize this pending layoff is no more than the proverbial bailing out the ocean with a leaky pail. What the media outlets within the big rust belt cities agree on is that you must jump onto the re-elect Obama bandwagon and then put the bite on him for “funds” after he’s hopefully serving a second term.
But ultimately the Free Press would never be mistaken for the Wall St. Journal, they’re engaged in the daily manufacturing of “Happy News” for Detroit, as you indicated. What constitutes happy news in a place like Detroit? Well, the Lions are going to the playoffs and when your sports teams are winning games the economy must be improving. Yeah, no one outside Detroit understands that logic either.
Grzmlyk| 1.6.12 @ 1:19PM
Come on. This is the beginning of Obama's Glorious Recovery, the one the State-sponsored history books will write about glowingly 20 years hence.
Thanks to the media-cultural-political complex, I can assure you that, from now until November, the economy will enjoy an amazing boom - every month will be more impressive than the preceding one. Unemployment will drop to 5%, manufacturing will grow by 20%, GDP will grow an astonishing 6%, our deficit will drop precipitously and the housing market will experience a miraculous renaissance. The birds will chirp louder, the children will play nicer and the sun will shine brighter.
We are now living in Pravda-land. We are witnessing the cornestone of Potemkin Amierca being laid. Everything coming out of the media-cultural-political complex will be fabricated, even as America continues its slide into oblivion.
But Obama already knows how to reconcile people's real-world experience with Government Propaganda. He'll simply invoke the spirit of Richard Pryor, smile at us and read from the teleprompter, "Come on, folks! Who you gonna believe? Me or your lyin' eyes?"
And the people will swoon en masse and say, "You, Barack, You! The State is All! Obama Is the State! May He His Wisdom Guide Us Forever! Long Live Obama, Our Dear and Benevolent Leader!"
And, voila. The transformation of America from the land of the free and the home of the brave into a moribund, tyrannical, petty dicatatorship will be complete.
axbucxdu| 1.7.12 @ 12:33PM
It can take a long time for inflation to get high enough to once again teach the citizenry the difference between nominal and real economic growth. We'll be toast the next time the Fed is forced to shut the valve.
In the meantime, the Repubs are toast. A few months ago, progs on the left were wailing about all the cash slumbering away in bank vaults and computer memories. No more. Obama's friendly Primary Dealers have kept their powder dry until now. This should come as no surprise, he bought and paid for them. He's only getting our money's worth.
WhiteBikerTrash| 1.6.12 @ 4:54PM
I dropped out of statistics a long time ago but in going over their numbers and converting them nothing matches up! The number of people who have dropped out of the labor force and the addition of jobs cannot decrease the UE numbers as much as they claim. 36% of all work age people have no job! That is the only real number I can make out. using their own numbers I get a straight up 9% U-3 rate
WhiteBikerTrash| 1.6.12 @ 4:56PM
Lies, Damnable Lies, and Statistics.
C Bowen | 1.6.12 @ 6:25PM
As the Austrian school economists (sorry, that would be Ron Paul fans) have been noting, the amount of money printing should generate another bubble--coupled with high inflation.
Of course world events might yet shape things, but I suspect the economy will "improve" the stock market will go "up", but the inflation will be nasty--if Republicans had any sense, they would cease with the ridiculous 'jobs' angle, and focus on how American savings have been decimated by reckless spending and Federal Reserve policy to help Wall Street.
AVCurmudgeon| 1.6.12 @ 9:52PM
If the economy shows signs of improvement, it tells us Obama's policies are better than Bush's. If the economy does not show signs of improvement, it tells us that Obama inherited a mess and what can he do?
All that said, we should know by now that the "jobs" numbers are misleading, in part because they do not tell us where the jobs are and in part because they are based on people actually receiving unemployment benefits. We need a better metric for assessing upward economic activity, such as small business startups (if such a measurement is available)
Sac a main Prada | 1.10.12 @ 4:30AM
Prada Pas Cher
Sac Prada Soldes