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The Spectacle Blog
John Tabin is correct to say that the history books will show that Mitt Romney won the 2012 Iowa Republican Caucus. But Rick Santorum won far more than a moral victory.
A month ago, not only was Santorum was polling in single digits, he was polling behind Michele Bachmann. If any of us had said one month ago that Santorum would finish second in the Iowa Caucus much less miss first place by single digits we might have found ourselves consigned to a white room with rubber walls forced to listen to Jon Huntsman’s speeches.
Santorum made efficient use of his limited resources in Iowa. He ran a Moneyball campaign. As Michael Li points out, Santorum spent $1.65 per vote while Romney spent $113.07 per vote. So Romney outspent Santorum by a margin of nearly 100-to-1 and yet finished on top by only eight votes. Romney attained the emptiest of victories.
In light of last night’s second place triumph in Iowa, I’m sure Santorum will soon have more resources at his disposal although I’m sure they won’t approach Romney’s treasure chest. But Santorum does have a formula for success and it could take him far.
Even if Romney wins New Hampshire, his nomination is far from inevitable. The most recent poll in New Hampshire had Romney leading Ron Paul by 23 points and Santorum by 38 points. If Romney wins the Granite State by less than 10% then he’s in deep trouble in South Carolina. Santorum will smell blood in the waters of Lake Marion.
View all comments (17) | Leave a comment
More Blog Posts by Aaron Goldstein
http://spectator.org/blog/2012/01/04/santorum-earned-more-than-a-mo
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ncatty| 1.4.12 @ 9:52AM
It is even worse for Romney because he is now, and has been for some time, expected to win New Hampshire. If these expectations are not fully met, then Santorum will have the momentum going into SC.
Bo Darville| 1.4.12 @ 10:15AM
If Santorum has the momentum going into SC then Obama has the momentum going into November.
Ricco| 1.4.12 @ 9:55AM
Moral victory? Washington talk. I guess the Redskins had 11 "moral victories" this year.
WL| 1.4.12 @ 10:06AM
Perry and Bachman are dropping out....Newt spoke highly of Santorum's campaign and won't stay in too much longer...
Where do you think these votes are going to go?
Just for kicks lets do the math in Iowa...
13 points for Gingrich
10 points for Perry
5 points for Bachman...
Lets say Santorum gets any sized majority of those votes (I would say at least 80%, but lets just say 51% to be conservative)....
Do you think that will be enough to overcome 8 votes?
Don't be fooled people....Romney never was the frontrunner. Romney never will be the frontrunner...Romney failed to make ANY ground over the last 4 years in Iowa...Everyone is moving back and forth to candidates because they will go to ANYONE other than Romney...
Now that Santorum has put the votes in the column...(real live Votes...not Polls)...
HE is the frontrunner...not my first choice...but he'll do fine by me...
Excuse me...I need to pull up his website (Santorum) and make my donation.
Dennis Thompson| 1.4.12 @ 10:17AM
Iowa? who cares.Let me know when Santorum fights the good fight. What is his plan for the economy? Where is his executive experience?
WL| 1.4.12 @ 11:10AM
Santorum IS fighting the good fight. 6 years and Romney can't win. Romneycare and shmoozing with the global warming claptrap peddlers is Romney's big Exectutive Experience?
Heck according to your "what is their plan" and "executive experience" template...and I am sure you are also thinking of the big one "electability"...
Then you candidate should be Obama...because he has all three...
No. You can Keep Mitt...
And you can have Obama...
Because if you get Mitt...we will all get Obama...
Watching Mitt in the General Election will be like watching a boxer refuse to throw a punch for 11 months...but some of you people like losing...so that is possibly what we will get.
Gadfly| 1.4.12 @ 11:57AM
As far as Bachman and Perry, I think you're right that 50-80% of those voters go to Santorum. Unfortunately, that won't help him much in states that aren't Iowa. Look at the polls in NH, SC, and FL. Even if Santorum picked up all of the Bachmann/Perry voters, he'd still be behind Romney. (Of course, those polls will all change significantly because of the result in IA, but the point is that neither Bachmann or Perry have substantial support outside of Iowa, so picking up their voters isn't really a huge benefit).
As for Newt, I don't think he's going anywhere yet. Even when he does, I bet a fair amount of those voters go to Romney. Newt's as much establishment as he is tea party. If someone is able to pick off a significant majority of his voters, he'll have a real advantage. I think the most likely outcome is that they split among Romney, Santorum, and Paul without giving anyone too much of a boost.
Dennis Thompson| 1.4.12 @ 10:14AM
What is it you want? Mitt Romney took his state from 50th in unemployment to 11th. He cut 341 social programs to balance a 3 billion dollar deficit in the budget. That is downsizing Government. He is against cap and trade, states there is no way to even measure man’s input to climate change. He is for drilling in the united states and building more refineries.
He has always been against federal mandates and believes things should be dealt with on a state to state approach. He was the first to present the idea of waivers against Obama Care until it can be repealed. Immigration? He defunded sanctuary cities while Governor. He is against Amnesty. Take time to look at his 844 vetoes. They are all on the conservative side of every issue. He is pro life and he governed that way. Health Care? They had a 484 Million dollar Heath Care deficit that was greatly affecting the sustainability of the states hospitals. What do you do ignore it? The concept came from the Conservative Heritage Foundations think tank. Once it was presented the Democrats made many additions to it.
Mitt Romney vetoed 8 things in it that he knew would be problematic. He was vetoed back by a veto proof legislature. There is nothing any Governor could do, if the legislature has the majority which it did.. In the state it was, when he had to sign it in. It added no new taxes. Was 1% of the state budget. It was created for the 8% of the people in the state that caused the debts. It did not try and do away with private health care. There are good things and bad. He vetoed the bad things. By due process of American Government, he was required to sign the Bill in that present form. Any Governor would have to.
He is a fighter. 844 vetoes, was vetoed back 700 times. What more do you want?
He has a 169 page plan for you to read on fixing the economy
He has so far come up with cutting 500 Billion out of the existing Budget
He wants to have a law where it is illegal for the Government to Deficit spend
Downsized Government
Balanced the Budget
WL| 1.4.12 @ 11:12AM
Some of that may be true...but when you see him and his handlers...do the John McCain boogety woogety all of the way to doing their best imitation of the SQUISCH SHUFFLE and LOSE to obama..
None of it is gonna matter.
You "moderates" never learn.
Gadfly| 1.4.12 @ 11:45AM
4 paragraphs of reasonable arguments one side, and "boogety woogety" on the other. I think its clear who won that exchange. And if you think that Santorum or Paul would have a better chance against Obama than Romney, let me have some of what you're smoking.
Bob K.| 1.4.12 @ 10:57AM
Aaron, may you live long and prosper!
And when you are in your 8th decade see if you can find a history book anywhere that mentions the importance of the Iowa Caucus in determining the result of the 2012 Presidential election!
O Tamandua| 1.4.12 @ 11:20AM
Dang it, fellow Americans! We now have the First Lady of the United States now joking on a Nickelodeon TV show that she doesn't mind being called "Your excellency".
And we're worried (with the exception of Rep. Paul) about whether Rick Perry or Michelle Bachmann should drop out after one primary?!?! ANY of these candidates (Rep. Paul and Gov. Huntsman notwithstanding) look so good to me right now!!!
I just pray that the right decisions are made by the candidates at the right time, and not in haste, during this whole primary process. And congratulations to Sen. Santorum (and Gov. Romney).
Interested Conservative| 1.4.12 @ 11:25AM
Interesting to see Newt campaign for the Santorum voters. Be more interesting to see Rick campaign for the Newt voters.
Rick + Newt + (Perry/Michelle/Cain) > Mitt + Paul + Huntsman.
Santorum needs Newt to go before Florida. Otherwise, it gets really interesting. I expect Mitt hopes so as well, so he won't attack Santorum before then, but can he wipe out Newt without help from others? Doubtful.
Nite| 1.4.12 @ 11:30AM
Sanatorum can't win the GOP nomination and the Iowa voters wasted their votes. He has no money and organization and it is late in the game to begin that.
Gadfly| 1.4.12 @ 11:48AM
Probably right. If Huckabee couldn't do it in 2008, I doubt that Santorum has a chance this year. Like Gingrich before him, I expect him to wilt fairly quickly now that he's in the spotlight with a target on his back.
beth m| 1.4.12 @ 12:01PM
Santorum is a whiny guy with a toupee who lost his last election in a landslide
bill| 1.4.12 @ 1:51PM
Huckabee won IA in 2008 and failed to win the GOP nod.