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The Spectacle Blog
Say Rick Santorum manages to pull off the upset in Iowa tonight, beating not only Ron Paul but also Mitt Romney to come in first. Then what? Many will say if Santorum could pull off the impossible once (by winning Iowa), why not a second time (by winning the nomination)?
The trouble with that line of thinking is that Santorum had the luxury of spending months in Iowa running a bare-bones campaign. He won’t have anywhere near as long to work New Hampshire, South Carolina, or Florida. After that, Santorum will need to be able to campaign in multiple states and media markets at once. All with Q4 fundraising totals the candidate himself has said aren’t very good and little time to build up a professional organization.
Being the anti-Romney will confer certain benefits, as many (perhaps most) Republicans would still prefer not to nominate the frontrunner. Santorum could win some Southern primaries simply by showing up. But he didn’t qualify for the ballot in Virginia and has no committed delegates in Tennessee, where Mike Huckabee won in 2008. Both of these are the kinds of states Santorum would need to win to beat Romney.
Santorum will emerge as a giant-killer if he wins the Iowa caucuses. But capitalizing on that win may prove a taller order.
Have at me in the comments.
View all comments (7) | Leave a comment
More Blog Posts by W. James Antle, III
http://spectator.org/blog/2012/01/03/if-rick-santorum-wins
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PattyMor| 1.3.12 @ 2:36PM
Its a good point to make. Iowa is just a minor scrimmage in the long battle for the White House. And, if you're not on the ballots in the various states, you can't win.
9thID| 1.3.12 @ 2:57PM
Santorum and Bachmann are the only two "3-legged" Reagan conservatives left in the race, but since '79 only 3 Iowa winners have made it to the nomination. At this point, Anyone But Ron Paul in Iowa is the ticket...
Occam's Tool| 1.3.12 @ 4:05PM
Yeah, but this could energize him. One can do a lot in 2 weeks with a sudden money bomb.
Most importantly, it would mean that a deranged pro-Iran idiot would not be the Republican nominee. Santorum beats Paul, Paul's FINISHED.
martin j smith| 1.3.12 @ 4:27PM
He wins Iowa only he has 49 other states to win or in Obama's parlance 56 other states.
randyinrocklin| 1.3.12 @ 5:38PM
Santorum will NOT be the nominee. Sorry folks. The only one that can beat Obama is Rick Perry.
Dai Alanye | 1.3.12 @ 6:52PM
Antle is looking at this as a static rather than dynamic process. Were Santorum to win Iowa, unlikely though that might be, his fundraising will take off and voluteers will pour in. Missing the ballots in states is a big problem, however.
One thing amazes me. After the way Rick Perry has fumbled not only his personal presentation but his campaign organization, why would any conservative want to consider him for President? You would think his previous experience had been as a small-town mayor not governor.
Quartermaster| 1.3.12 @ 7:32PM
I doubt Perry could beat the Obummer. Much too much like Dubya and we've already had far more than enough of the Bushes.