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The Spectacle Blog
With the Iowa caucuses convening tonight, a few points to consider:
Who shows up? Jim discussed the Des Moines Register poll Saturday night, which has a very good track record and showed Mitt Romney leading with Ron Paul in second — but Rick Santorum in second in the last two days of polling. DMR pollster Ann Selzer walks through how the results change if the sample is weighted differently:
EVANGELICALS - In 2008, they were 60 percent of those who participated in the entrance poll at the Republican caucus and famously handed Mike Huckabee the win. This year, our polls are showing far fewer likely Republican caucusgoers identifying themselves as born-again or evangelical Christians - about one in three.
When we weight our data from the last two days in the field to match 2008, Rick Santorum wins with 25 percent, Mitt Romney is second at 20 percent, and Ron Paul has 16 percent. Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich and Rick Perry barely break into double digits. Each is within a point of one another.
SENIORS - In 2008, they made up 27 percent of the entrance poll respondent pool. We are showing them under 20 percent in our polls this year. When we weight our data from the final two days of polling to match 2008, this greatly benefits Romney, who would rise to 26 percent and a 7 point lead over Santorum, 19 percent. Paul drops to third place, with 17 percent.
Selzer goes on to explain that a surge of independents helps Paul (though it doesn’t put him quite over the top according to her data); PPP’s photo-finish poll, showing Paul with a statistically trivial lead, is based on 24% of caucusgoers being independents and Democrats; this seems unlikely, but not impossible.
The fight for fourth. If Romney, Paul, or Santorum don’t finish in the top three, it would obviously be a huge loss in the expectations game (probably fatal, in Santorum’s case). There’s an old saw about there being “three tickets out of Iowa,” but this year there’s probably a fourth ticket; if Newt Gingrich, Rick Perry, or Michele Bachmann comes in fourth, he or she will declare it a victory and continue the campaign. Nate Silver’s forecasting model — which averages polling data with weights designed to factor in pollsters’ track records — shows Gingrich holding steady in fourth place after factoring in the two polls (Insider Advantage and ARG) that came in after PPP’s. It’s possible, though, that Perry can sneak past Newt with a strong ground organization.
The weather. As Stacy noted on Christmas Day, it’s been posited (by Mike Huckabee, among others) that a snowstorm would help Ron Paul, the idea being that his younger and more dedicated core of supporters would show up even when others decided to take a pass on the caucuses. Today’s weather in Des Moines is expected to be cold, but clear.
View all comments (11) | Leave a comment
More Blog Posts by John Tabin
http://spectator.org/blog/2012/01/03/caucus-day
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Clint| 1.3.12 @ 6:16AM
Do Your Homework, Sport.
" PPP surveyed 1,340 likely Republican caucus voters on December 31st and January 1st."
If The Independents And Democrats Were Polled Dr.Ron Paul Would Have Won The PPP Poll Even Bigger.
Zack| 1.3.12 @ 10:38AM
Wow, you really can't understand simple English, can you?
It says "likely Republican caucus voters" which means people likely to vote in the Republican caucus (not Republicans who are likely to vote). Of those people who are likely to vote in the Republican caucus, PPP thinks that 24% will be independents or Democrats.
He even cites the number with a link, which you were apparently too lazy to check. The link says that among independents and Democrats, Paul has 30% of the vote (which means he's getting about 17% of the rest of the vote). Using simple math, that means Paul gets more than a third of his votes from Democrats and independents (probably because of his liberal, isolationist foreign policy).
Bob Grant| 1.3.12 @ 12:33PM
You sound so confident in those poll numbers you pull our of your a*s.
Zack| 1.3.12 @ 3:31PM
Pull out of my ass? I think you should look up what that term means. The poll numbers were cited and linked by the OP.
And as for my confidence in the numbers, have no ideas whether this is a reliable poll or not. I was responding to the lack of comprehension of the facts a they were reported (which was especially funny because the original comment or thought he was being clever and pointing out an error in the OP
Occam's Tool| 1.3.12 @ 12:58PM
Yes, because the Dems know he would be killed against Obama. Paul could get out the Black vote like no other Republican---against him.
George| 1.3.12 @ 7:44AM
Political bloggers are obsessed with imagining electoral scenarios and predicting their outcomes. Here Tabin engages in the hackneyed cliche of speculating about which candidate would benefit from a caucus-day snowfall in Iowa.
Meanwhile, back in the real world:
1. There is no snow in the Iowa weather forecast for today.
2. Even if it were to snow today, Iowans still go about their business...including caucusing.
3. The source for this iteration of a thread-worn but still-meaningless exercise in imagination-based journalism is Arkansas resident Mike Huckabee, whose expertise on the suppressive effect of weather on Iowa turn-out apparently comes from having been a candidate there in 2008. Huckabee's one and only caucus night, however, saw the highest turn-out in history -- despite the fact that the temperature never got above freezing during the day and was headed to the single digits by the time the caucus meetings started.
Political journalists are bored by events as they happen, so they write about day-dreams.
Resist We Much! | 1.3.12 @ 9:22AM
Ron Paul: Truther. Period.
Video and transcript
http://predicthistunpredictpas.....eriod.html
And, another:
Q: Why won't you come out about the truth about 9/11?"
A: "Because I can't handle the controversy, I have the I.M.F., the Federal Reserve to deal with, the I.R.S. to deal with -- no because I just have more, too many things on my plate."
- Ron Paul
Dan| 1.3.12 @ 11:15AM
I think there's going to be a healthy turnout, perhaps even a huge turnout.
The nation is in crisis.
hook| 1.3.12 @ 12:14PM
Weather is VERY important and also unpredictable with certainty. I agree with Dan's comment and disagree with whoever seemed to imply weather wasn't important. Paul is a nutcase, a racist, and an anti Semite. I personally don't believe he should be part of the Repub party. I also think if he formed a third party he would draw more on the left than the right.
Dan| 1.3.12 @ 12:53PM
Just think of the outrage of the party establishment when Gingrich was rising in the polls, and then think that the very same establishment was OK with Paul on stage, absorbing precious air time other candidates could have used, and further dispersing all anti-Romney voters.
Paul's entire political existence right now is akin to a missile gone ballistic, and yet the establishment that could have pushed the "abort" button on him long ago, still has failed to do so.
And that's because Paul helps Romney, he sucks up air time, reportage, energy and money, that might have gone elsewhere. Because the establishment knows full well that Paul types would never support Romney in a primary.
Haddit| 1.3.12 @ 1:46PM
Who is to say that implant democrats aren't caucusing for the easiest to beat Republican candidate in Iowa? I mean really, what have we got other than their word? Ron Paul? Romney? Santorum? Man please!!!