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The Spectacle Blog
At CFIF I predict what will happen IF — IF, IF, IF, not when — Rick Santorum wins the caucuses tonight. Basically, I think if he wins the caucuses straight-up, he will end up winning the whole nomination.
Okay, but what then?
I’ve said for well over a year that IF Santorum wins the nomination, he would have an easier time winning the general election than he had in winning the nomination.
In short, if he is the Republican nominee, he will defeat Obama and become president. Why? Because he knows how to appeal, on a sort of “keeping it real” level, to the proverbial “middle American.” And also because Obama can win only if he can effectively demonize his opponent. Well, Santorum can only be demonized so much. His record is consistent, and he’s rather squeakily clean — and his only serious drawback, his media caricature as a one-trick pony of social conservatism, is easy, in a long campaign, to refute.
Rick Santorum has been underestimated by the punditocracy for his whole career. Even as he surges in Iowa, he is being underestimated, in terms of his campaign’s long-term viability, again. Pundits don’t know squat.
View all comments (16) | Leave a comment
More Blog Posts by Quin Hillyer
http://spectator.org/blog/2012/01/03/a-prediction-based-on-a-predic
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Zack| 1.3.12 @ 3:24PM
Any basis for this prediction other than your crossed fingers and wishful thinking? Why is Santorum more likely to win the nomination after Iowa than Huckabee was? He was also pretty good at "keeping it real," as I recall. What about the organizational deficiencies that have been outlined here and elsewhere
PattyMor| 1.3.12 @ 3:48PM
Well, after Iowa, the herd will be culled. Sarah has already told Michelle to get out. Can we also say good bye to the perfectly coifed, Jon Huntsman? What about bye bye to Ron Paul? The Marxist Media would absolutely crucify him over the newsletters.
So who does that leave? Mittens, Santorum, Perry, Gingrich?
Pay attention to the rise of the American Elect party. Its a Saul Alinky operation, no doubt dreamed up by Axlerod and funded by Spooky Dude. Its function is to syphon off enough vote to reelect the 'Bamster. What ACORN can't produce, the American Elect can.
Lullabys, Legends and Lies| 1.3.12 @ 3:59PM
I hope your "if" prediction comes true tonight!! Out of everybody who's left in this field now, the flip-flopper, the old baggage, the bad memory, the crazy foreign policy, and the crazy wide eyes & very annoying voice, Santorum seems like the only one that I don't have a big problem with!! Now I never thought he'd get to the top, and I have serious doubts that he's going to stay there long, but if he can win tonight, who knows?
Occam's Tool| 1.3.12 @ 4:03PM
Indeed, this would be very, very good if he wins. It would seal Paul's fate and Santorum's weakness is Party loyalty and willingness to get the best possible deal, which is hardly fault-worthy. I'd have a guy I could shovel $500-$1000 at and be enthusiastic about, which has not been the case since Ronaldus Magnus.
Nite| 1.3.12 @ 4:16PM
My opinion is that Santorum may come in 3rd. However, he doesn't have the money or organization to go much farther. The other issue is that his experience is limited to two terms in Congress. We have one of those with limited experience in the WH. We know how that has turned out.
Dai Alanye | 1.3.12 @ 6:37PM
Two terms in the Senate plus service in the House.
Rob| 1.3.12 @ 4:26PM
I hope that you're right. Kudos to you for having the foresight to recognize Santorum's gifts and strengths as a presidential candidate long before they were widely recognized by others, including myself.
martin j smith| 1.3.12 @ 4:26PM
I have heard that there are 40% undecideds in Iowa.
That is a very large number if true yet not surprising.
I think the Republican Establishment has done a very good job messing up the nominating process so I am not surprised. Like colluding with MSM to get rid of Cain or trying to get rid of Newt . Really this is a bunch of Crap and I support anyone except Romney,Paul or Huntsman. That is so far,
Margie| 1.3.12 @ 4:35PM
It WILL be excellent if Santorum can win this. It will infuse a bit of hope into the race to the finish!
I pray he wins it.
Happy New Year, Quin Hilyer!
SpiralArchitect| 1.3.12 @ 5:31PM
American Elect is a clever and dangerous mixture for the opponents of President
Zero.
randyinrocklin| 1.3.12 @ 5:34PM
get over it. Santorum will NEVER win.
TommyFrisco| 1.3.12 @ 5:47PM
"Pundits don't know squat."
Well said.
Call it comedy and see if it sells that way.
jmm1890| 1.3.12 @ 9:44PM
Was he underestimated in his last PA election?
How can he beat Obama if he can't carry his own state?
somnolence| 1.3.12 @ 10:34PM
For starters, Santorum would be far more hard-boiled in the farcical "debates" against Sotero than Huckabee ever would. But sorry, Quinn, my money is on Romney being the nominee and easily, the next President.
Oldefarte| 1.4.12 @ 11:02AM
Again Santorum is a no doubt great guy of high moral character, and while it would be wonderful to sit down and have a cup of coffee and discuss politics with him, he simply IMO does not possess the presidential qualifications necessary for the job. We have simply had to many in a long line of career politicians without either the professional knowhow to streamline/downsize governmant's overburdensome-to-taxpayers size or the political GUTS to do same!!!!!!!!
Oldefarte| 1.4.12 @ 11:03AM
PS: We need a DOER, not a TALKER!!!!!