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The Spectacle Blog
Jonathan Karl of ABC News just reported that Newt Gingrich doesn’t expect to win tomorrow’s Iowa caucuses. Earlier today, Rick Santorum was quoted as saying he hopes to finish ahead of Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann — a bar he should clear easily. Chalk this up to the expectations game.
Fairly or not, the media is going to judge candidates not just by how the perform but by whether their performance measures up to what is expected. Those expectations change over time. Just weeks ago, a third place showing would have been a victory for Ron Paul. Now it would be a bit of a disappointment. Similarly, there was a time when Perry would have been devastated by a third place showing. Now he’d be ecstatic. Santorum would have been pleased by a fourth place finish earlier this month. Now it would be shocking for him to end up outside the top three.
In an ideal scenario, Mitt Romney probably would have preferred to still be flying underneath the radar. That said, there was a time when it seemed unrealistic for him to win the caucuses. Now it doesn’t, so there will be more of an impact if he winds up second or worse. Over the next 24 hours, nearly as much effort will be expended managing expectations as trying to get out the vote.
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More Blog Posts by W. James Antle, III
http://spectator.org/blog/2012/01/02/the-iowa-expectations-game
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Haddit| 1.2.12 @ 1:25PM
If Iowa is an example of what this country thinks, it's a shame. Romney maybe but Santorum or Ron the Kitten hippie? For God's sake!!! The man that will defeat Obama is Newt Gingrich, period. It's a cluster. Romney will crumble under the first racial attack. He's just like McCain. All of em ought to be using that twit's middle name right now but not one.
Interested Conservative| 1.2.12 @ 2:46PM
Paul can be 2nd or 3rd everywhere, particularly as the field narrows to 4 or less.
Newt needs to finish 3rd and 4th in each of Iowa and NH, take your pick which.
Santorum and Bachmann probably won't last beyond SC. At some point the expense catches up to 5th place finishes.
Perry can afford to stick around, but will need to beat Newt somewhere before March.
Mitt just needs to keep winning with 25% which he can do until there are less than 3 competitors.
I doubt Santorum can progress in either NH or SC, so I expect it to come down to Newt or Perry vs. Mitt across the south. I suppose Mitt could win a very extended delegate-count race, but the conservative base may have had enough of him by then.
Clint| 1.2.12 @ 4:03PM
Apparently, Gingrich Expects The RINO-CINO Frontman, Mittens Romney Will Attempt To Buy The Election.
Gingrich, " Romney Would Buy The Election If He Could."
Gingrich Is Right On.
The Tea Party Rebellion Steps On Mittens' Tail.
Oldefarte| 1.2.12 @ 5:14PM
Maybe Romney should lend his 'mittens' to Ronnie to keep warm from bicycling aroung Lake Jackson in those TOO SHORT SHORTS?????
Clint| 1.2.12 @ 6:19PM
That's A Queer Thing To Say, Fart Man.
Are You Tryin' To Tell Us That You're A Little Light In Your Loafers ?
Richard Baker| 1.2.12 @ 5:54PM
I'm always amazed at the hype over Iowa. It's all about the political junkies and their frantic efforts to be important. When its all over then Iowa becomes the Land of Corn again. Political theater.