-
SEQUESTER: The Horror!
March 1, 2013 | 4 comments
-
SOTU Preview: Human Props, Budget Fights, and Wedge Issues
February 12, 2013 | 0 comments
-
Hello, I Must Be Going
August 14, 2012 | 18 comments
-
Weekend Political Wrap-Up, Paul Ryan Edition
August 12, 2012 | 16 comments
-
Esquire Blogger Sees Paul Ryan, Shreds His Safety Net
August 11, 2012 | 13 comments
The Spectacle Blog
Aaron Goldstein asks what would happen if Rick Santorum actually won the Iowa caucuses Tuesday. Though I don’t think that’s very likely, the fact this is no longer a ridiculous hypothetical — at least one poll has Santorum in second place behind Mitt Romney — shows that anything is possible.
Call it the “Santorum snowball effect.” Social conservatives in Iowa have been looking for a candidate. As the polls increasingly show Santorum ahead of other possible choices, more uncommitted social conservatives will break toward him rather than Newt Gingrich, Rick Perry or Michele Bachmann. In fact, he is beginning to eat into some of their committed supporters. (Don’t believe me? Notice that Perry has run an anti-Santorum ad.) This momentum has the potential to build.
The question is whether Santorum is well situated to capitalize on his Iowa performance, no matter where in the top three he falls (and I do think he will be top three, barring a major shift). My sense is that he doesn’t have the money or organization to do much beyond beat Romney in some Southern primaries and maybe Pennsylvania, and that he is ill prepared for a longer campaign.
If you are Romney, you want to see Iowa derail Gingrich and Perry. Those are the two Republicans who can potentially beat Romney. They are also the two candidates who can force Romney into a protracted nomination fight where he wins but ends up irritating large portions of the base in the process. If either Santorum or Ron Paul gets to be the last man standing against Romney, it will be win-win for both them and Romney: they will get more votes than they could have ever thought possible, without ever really threatening Romney’s nomination.
View all comments (23) | Leave a comment
More Blog Posts by W. James Antle, III
http://spectator.org/blog/2011/12/30/the-santorum-snowball-effect
Follow us:
ADVERTISEMENT
SPONSORED LINKS
FLASHBACK TO: 1995
-
Pope Culture
A man of faith in a godless age is hitting Americans where it hurts.
-
Why the GOP Does Not, Like, Totally Suck
Mr. and Mrs. American Spectator Reader, let P.J. O’Rourke talk sense to your kids.
-
Dames at Sea
-
In the Absence of Guns
In Britain, defending your property can get you life.
-
The Metaphysical Martini
-
Counting the Costs of Clintonism
The debacle of this president’s administration is both a cause and a symptom of the decline of American values. Unless Congress impeaches him, that decline will go on unchecked. An eminent jurist surveys the damage and assesses the chances for the recovery of our culture.
-
Chuck McHagel
It won’t take long for conservatives to scratch this presidential wannabe off their 2008 scorecard.
-
The Legacy of Old John and Mother Fresh-Roasted
-
It’s the Best Time of the Year
The American Christmas, like the songs that celebrate it, makes room for everybody under the rainbow. Is that why so many people seem to be hostile to it?
-
The Bush Crack-Up
Was the President done in by the economy, or by the politics of the economy?
Clip of the Day
ADVERTISEMENT
Clint| 12.30.11 @ 1:06PM
Who Is Mittens Romney ?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o1wPrsEP2nc
The Tea PartyRebellion Steps On Mittens.
Jack in Wi.| 12.30.11 @ 1:42PM
Clint: the numbeer of comments here show how much support Santimonious Santorum has on this site. He is Herman Cain without the pazzaz. Ron Paul and his son Rand will be barnstorming Iowa on Monday before the caucauses.
Ron and Rand for Sanity, Solvency, Peace, Prosperity and Liberty.
Oldefarte| 12.31.11 @ 2:22PM
%%%%RUB-A-DUB-DUB......LOSER RON'S IN THE TUB%%%%%%%
Clint| 12.31.11 @ 8:05PM
WTF ?
Clint| 12.30.11 @ 2:46PM
Jack, Apparently Little Ricky Is Drawing The Anti-Mormon Bigot Vote And The Arlen Specter For Vice President Vote.
Meanwhile,
" Ron Paul’s “Tea Party” money bomb meets $4 million goal
Ron Paul (R-TX), a candidate for the Republican presidential nomination, ended his “Tea Party” money bomb Sunday at midnight. Mr. Paul succeeded in meeting his fundraising goal of $4 million. The Paul campaign plans on using the grassroots donations for additional campaign activities in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. With the donation ticker still climbing, Mr. Paul has raised more than $4,048,000 as of 9am EDT Monday.
Ron Paul 2012 Campaign Manager John Tate urged supporters to contribute Sunday.
“The more resources we have, the more undecided voters in Iowa and New Hampshire we can contact through email, mail and TV to spread Dr. Paul’s message of liberty and free markets that has him skyrocketing in the polls in the early states,” Mr. Tate wrote.
“The establishment knows Ron Paul is the one candidate who is serious about cutting spending, standing up against assaults on our liberties, restoring sound money, and fighting for a return to constitutional government,” Mr. Tate added."
The Tea Party Rebellion Steps On Mittens Romney & The Ricky- Specter Coalition.
Oldefarte| 12.31.11 @ 2:26PM
Apparently Ronnie will end up with the majority vote among racist-Clit and Little Ron-Rand, but with little else [other than a pot full of Clit's nickels from his lifetime subscription to Ronnie's newsletters]!!!!!!!
Ewwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww| 12.30.11 @ 4:02PM
Call it the "Santorum snowball effect."
Considering the definition that pops up if you google for "santorum," you might want to check urbandictionary.com to see what "snowballing" means these days before you try to get conservatives talking about a "santorum snowball effect."
John Navratil| 12.31.11 @ 8:32AM
Or we may prefer to retain the real meaning of words to facilitate discussion. This stunt is at the level of a third-grade playground where the fat kid gets taunted with his own name. That, in addition to being in exxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxtremely bad taste.
Bob Grant| 12.31.11 @ 10:15AM
Bravo. Well put.
Mike| 12.30.11 @ 6:22PM
Time to tee up the dead baby story?
Dan| 12.31.11 @ 3:16PM
Yup, that's what's going to happen.
Most people here though haven't a clue what you're referring to.
We'll see how much support stays with Santorum after that odd tale starts to get told. And if necessary, told it surely will be by a media that despises him and everything he stands for.
Occam's Tool| 12.30.11 @ 7:18PM
Hey, I'm OK with a Romney/Santorum ticket. Romney isn't my favorite, but I'd vote for him over Obama. If Paul finishes third in Iowa, he's finished, baby. Roll the Merkavas, "iron the trenches." (The two 4-Fs, Clint and Jack, may need to look up the term "iron the trenches.")
Jack in Wi.| 12.30.11 @ 8:21PM
Occam if Israel trys to use it tanks again, it won't get 2 miles outside it's borders. It is so afraid of Jewish blood being spilled, it couldn't take 100, deaths in their brutal and unnecessary attack on Lebanon. They almost had a national nervous breakdown when they had one Israeli prisoner of war. Israel should just give up killing people and really start pushing peace. It is the only solution to the Midde East without a 3rd world war.
Oldefarte| 12.31.11 @ 2:32PM
Jack, if Ronnie keeps kissing Iran's dictator's ars etc, they'll corner the oil market [with the assistance of Barry & Eric of course] and we'll all be left to bicycling to/from [that's okeay, you'll still be able to spend all of your money on Ronnie's newsletters]. Oh, and how did that middle eastern SIX DAY WAR work out for you and El Rondo-Doctor, perhaps [when the ragheads got it shove up their youknowwhat, militarily speaking!]????
Clint| 12.30.11 @ 10:09PM
I'm Not 4-F Neo-Chickenhawk Coward Traitor Bastard Smear Bund Boy Liar, Tool Job.
We Notice That The Israel Firster Neo-Chickenhawk Coward Didn't Join Either The U.S. Military Or His Beloved Bibi 's Israeli IDF.
Like Many Israel Firster Neo-Chickenhawks You Got A Serial Bad Habit Of Trying To Get American Warriors To Be Cannon Fodder For Your Israel Firster Agenda, While You Head For The Tall Grass.
The Tea Party Rebellion Steps On The Maniac Neo-Chickenhawk Israel Firster Traitor Bastard,Tool Job.
Oldefarte| 12.31.11 @ 2:43PM
Clit, no doubt you and Jack sit around in your respective double-wides' bathtubs adorning checkered tablecloths atop your balding heads shouting ALAH, AKBAR all day, huh? Why don't you two go join your partner-in-crime Barry for a round of putts in Hawaii perhaps [oh I forgot, Barry gets to spend our taxpayers' money while you tow are forced to rely on manna from Ronnie's newsletters' revenues, huh?]
Clint| 12.31.11 @ 8:09PM
I Work Out Every Day & Could Mop The Floor With Your Face, If Forced To Defend Myself.
But, You're Welcome To Come To My Gym And Get A Free Boxing Lesson, Fart Man.
SGT Baker (native Coloradoan)| 1.1.12 @ 5:46AM
Iraq (check)
Afghanistan (check)
15 years in the military (check)
Combat Arms (check)
Combat Infantry Badge (check)
Combat Action Badge (check)
National Defense Ribbon (check, check)
Do I have the credentials to say we support our allies and destroy our enemies?
Israel (ally)
95% of the rest of the Middle East (enemies)
Clint| 1.1.12 @ 10:24AM
Tell Us About Israel Spy Ben ami Kadish,Who Had The Same Handler Out Of The NYC Israeli Consulate As Jonathan Pollard, Tell Us About Israel Company Checkpoint Systems Getting The Same Treatment As Dubai Ports By C.F.I.U.S. In The Sourcefire Deal, Tell Us About Illegal Israeli Sales Of U.S. Weapons Technology To The Red Chinese, Jeopardizing Our Allies Taiwan And Japan.
The Tea Party Rebellion Is Here And In Iowa.
Nite| 12.31.11 @ 8:14AM
Santorum does not have the organization or money to go very far. He also does not have any executive experience of even running a state. He simply is not qualified for POTUS. The people attending his events in Iowa does not even come close to events held by Rick Perry. This is a fake surge for Santorum.
SGT Baker (native Coloradoan)| 1.1.12 @ 5:47AM
Saying this tongue in cheek!
Current POTUS has none of those qualifications either, but he made it.....
JoeB| 1.1.12 @ 12:48PM
Please correct your article: "at least one poll has Santorum in second place behind Mitt Romney"... show me the poll; THERE IS NO SUCH POLL.
John Navratil| 1.1.12 @ 2:04PM
The complete statement was: "Though I don't think that's very likely, the fact this is no longer a ridiculous hypothetical -- at least one poll has Santorum in second place behind Mitt Romney -- shows that anything is possible."
However, you might look at http://www.examiner.com/indepe.....econd-iowa to see the support for the assertion.