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The Spectacle Blog
For the sake of argument, let’s suppose Rick Santorum shocks the world and wins the Iowa Caucus next Tuesday.
I don’t think it will do him a lot of good in New Hampshire. Now don’t get me wrong. It might be good enough for a third place finish. Yet it would be a distant third as was the case with Mike Huckabee who finished well back of John McCain and Mitt Romney in 2008. Santorum’s brand of social conservatism doesn’t wear well in New England.
But I think South Carolina is different kettle of fish altogether. There are a lot more social conservatives in the Palmetto state and if Bachmann, Perry and Newt are out of the picture then Santorum becomes a viable alternative to both Romney and Ron Paul. I still can’t see Romney winning South Carolina even if he were to win in both Iowa and New Hampshire. Nor do I think the endorsement of Governor Nikki Haley will do Romney many favors as her standing amongst Republicans has taken a hit of late. However, if Bachmann, Perry or Newt are still around then it cuts into Santorum’s support and gives Romney a chance to prevail.
Doug Mataconis puts it this way where it concerns Ron Paul, “You win the nomination by appealing to Republicans, and it’s becoming eminently clear that both mainline and conservative Republicans want nothing to do with Ron Paul.”
As for Santorum, he is certainly capable of appealing to Republicans. But do mainline and conservative Republicans want to have anything to do with him? Santorum’s greatest weakness is his acerbic manner which has shown itself on more than one occasion during the GOP debates. That won’t help him if he should have to debate President Obama. If that side of him shows then he will be cast as angry and bitter. Ronald Reagan proved that a touch of honey is farmore effective than a tablespoon of vinegar. I’m not sure if Santorum has even a smidgen of The Gipper’s sunny disposition.
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More Blog Posts by Aaron Goldstein
http://spectator.org/blog/2011/12/29/suppose-santorum-wins-iowa
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bill| 12.29.11 @ 6:05PM
Mike Huckabee won IA in 2008, and then lost to McCain. Huckabee failed to capitalize the momentum because economy was the main issue then. Well, history repeats again. As the economy plummet again, Rick Santorum's social conservatism has to take a back seat, while 27 million people are unemployed and the nation accumulates $15 trillion debt.
Santorum may win IA, but will never win the GOP nod.
Clint| 12.30.11 @ 2:15AM
We Are Being Set Up By RINO-CINO Flunkie Stooges For The Ruling Elites' Frontman Mittens Romney.
These Are The RINO-CINO Flunkie Stooges Who Gave Us The Serial Traitor To Conservatism, John McCain Of McCain-Feingold, McCain-Kennedy,McCain-Lieberman,Gang Of 14, Opposing Bush Tax Cuts Of 2001 & 2003,TARP.
Now They Are Trying To Give Us RomneyCare,TARP, Cynical Flip-Flops On Abortion, Gays, Refuses to Sign Pro-Life Pledge, Illegal Immigrants, "Little Chain Saw Al" At Bain, Crony Capitalism Campaign Money Trail.....
The Tea Party Rebellion Is Here And In Iowa.
Bill Hussein O'Stalin| 12.29.11 @ 6:08PM
Santorum is a distraction and should go away. He has some good principles but all these candidates are deluded.
Gary Johnson is a perfect example of that. Since he couldn't make any traction in the Republican Party he's pulling a Perot and going third party. He has no chance but he could pull 7 million votes from dope smokers which is all Obama needs to win.
SpiralArchitect| 12.29.11 @ 6:11PM
Yea, 7 million people that smoke pot are going to vote. Bahahahahaha!!
Clint| 12.30.11 @ 1:50AM
Santorum's Tryin' To Lock Down The Anti-Mormon Bigot Vote.
Inquiring Conservatives Are Askin', " Will Ricky Pick His Girlfriend Arlen Specter To Be His Chauffeur.
9thID| 12.29.11 @ 9:54PM
The 7 million dope smokers would be a good portion of Ron Paul voters too and he and Johnson may fight over them on the Liberal-tarian ticket...
Clint| 12.29.11 @ 10:49PM
" Ron Paul’s “Tea Party” money bomb meets $4 million goal
Ron Paul (R-TX), a candidate for the Republican presidential nomination, ended his “Tea Party” money bomb Sunday at midnight. Mr. Paul succeeded in meeting his fundraising goal of $4 million. The Paul campaign plans on using the grassroots donations for additional campaign activities in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. With the donation ticker still climbing, Mr. Paul has raised more than $4,048,000 as of 9am EDT Monday.
Ron Paul 2012 Campaign Manager John Tate urged supporters to contribute Sunday.
“The more resources we have, the more undecided voters in Iowa and New Hampshire we can contact through email, mail and TV to spread Dr. Paul’s message of liberty and free markets that has him skyrocketing in the polls in the early states,” Mr. Tate wrote.
“The establishment knows Ron Paul is the one candidate who is serious about cutting spending, standing up against assaults on our liberties, restoring sound money, and fighting for a return to constitutional government,” Mr. Tate added."
The Tea Party Rebellion Is Here And In Iowa.
SpiralArchitect| 12.29.11 @ 6:10PM
General election will be decided by the candidate that gets party votes (obviously) & equally important, non big party voters. Very simple to form a conclusion as to who has any chance to replace the treasonous incumbant.
William R| 12.29.11 @ 6:41PM
Goldstein, I've been involved in Republican party politics 44 years. Worked for Reagan campaign in 1976 and was a Delegate at the National Convention in Dallas in 1984. I'm a rightwing Republican and Ron Paul is the only traditional conservative in the race. I'm sorry, but you're foreign policy views are liberal internationalism. Wilsonian NeoConism. I'm sick and tired of Chicken Hawks who keep trying to drag us into another war in the Middle East.
“The people have had all the war, all the taxation, and all the military service they want.”----Calvin Coolidge the most conservative President of the 20th century.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/a.....-2012.html
ejp| 12.29.11 @ 7:14PM
Why didn't you work for Fritz Mondale in 1984 since his foreign policy views are the ones closest to the ones you're advocating today?
William R| 12.30.11 @ 12:37AM
You're dumber than a load of bricks. Dumber than Jeffrey Lord and that's saying something.
Reagan's Wisdom on the Middle East , Leave
http://orangepunch.ocregister......leave/619/
RJ| 12.29.11 @ 6:41PM
Santorum winning in Iowa is like a lead-off home-run in the first inning. You are in the lead, but the game is nine innings long. I probably haven't been fair in considering him as a candidate because of his acerbic manner. While he seems to be knowledgeable on many issues and has a record of accomplishment, he lacks executive experience and presidential demeanor.
Here's hoping that by the ninth inning, we find a winner in the group that we can have confidence in.
bill| 12.29.11 @ 6:47PM
Santorum will have a lead off home run, while Rick Perry will have a grand slum in the bottom of the ninth to close the deal.
It's Rick perry, or nobody.
C Bowen | 12.29.11 @ 6:59PM
Just posting some comments from a conservative web site (Bill Kauffman in The American Conservative):
"Mason City also gave us Hanford MacNider, national commander of the American Legion in the 1920s and a believer in “Iowa as the Promised Land.” The Legion once was a potent lobbyist for loot, though veterans’ benefits were meager recompense to those who came home legless or armless or blind or insane from the single-L Wilson’s War to End All Wars. MacNider, a banker, introduced the most un-Mr. Potterish “Iowa idea,” which required each Legion post to “make some unselfish contribution to its community’s welfare each year or lose its charter.” I’d say 90 years of sponsoring American Legion baseball teams is a pretty fair contribution.
Peace has long been an Iowa idea as well. Hanford MacNider was given to such craven and anti-American utterances as “I am … unwilling to commit my sons or any American’s sons to the policing of the rest of the world.” Traitor! MacNider played football at Harvard and earned a chestful of medals in both world wars, but he had an Iowa isolationist streak that such He-Men as Lindsey Graham and Rick Santorum would find suspiciously girlish."
John P Slevin | 1.2.12 @ 1:52PM
It's only by marriage but I like the fact that I am related to Hanford MacNider. A real good man!
Occam's Tool| 12.29.11 @ 8:09PM
No snow predicted for Next Tuesday, less than 11% chance of precipitation. Sorry William R, but your support of Baby Murderers and child rape supporters will avail you naught, scumbag.
I was VEEP of my College's YAF when Reagan ran. I'm no Liberal, pal.
Clint| 12.29.11 @ 10:54PM
You're American Spectator's Resident Maniac Israel Firster Neo-Chickenhawk Smear Bund Boy, Tool Job.
William R| 12.30.11 @ 12:41AM
You're fifth columnist Tool Job. A treasonous snake. You're country murders American Sailors, loots our secrets and knew about 9/11 in advance and didn't tell the United States. People like you should have their citizenship stripped and deported to Israel.
9thID| 12.30.11 @ 11:35AM
Go back to your snakehole PrisonPlanet/Infowars!
Dai Alanye | 12.30.11 @ 1:04PM
As always, among the best reasons to oppose Captain Ron Paul is the type of cordial enthusiasts he attracts as supporters.
Clint| 12.31.11 @ 1:13PM
But That's Not Why You Israel Firster Smear Bund Boys Oppose Dr.Ron Paul.
The Tea Party Rebellion Steps On The Israel Firster Smear Bund Boys.
Occam's Tool| 12.29.11 @ 8:10PM
Oh and William R---you're not fit to be around my kids, maggot.
William R| 12.30.11 @ 12:43AM
Tool Jobs country murders American sailors
http://orangepunch.ocregister......leave/619/
Clint| 12.29.11 @ 10:52PM
Your Kids Hang Around A Maniac Israell Firster Maggot Smear Bund Boy, Like You Tool Job.
Derek Leaberry| 12.30.11 @ 9:15AM
Two weeks after writing Rick Santorum off, I must be forced to say that he's the best of a bad lot of candidates. Mitt Romney has hinted that he is still a social liberal. Newt Gingrich has too many flaws to be elected. Perhaps Santorum can defeat Barack Obama when recession hits again in 2012 and he proves competent enough to run the presidency.
As for Santorum riding into New Hampshire as the winner of Iowa, I would expect him to gain traction from all the free publicity he will gain. A Santorum victory in Iowa- or a close second place to Ron Paul- would winnow the Granite State field to Romney, Jon Huntsman, Paul and Santorum with Huntsman wiped off any media coverage. A strong second by Santorum in New Hampshire should propel him into South Carolina with a strong headwind. Remember, the Republican Party as a whole does not want to nominate Mitt Romney or Ron Paul as its presidential candidate. Santorum can be the man left standing.
9thID| 12.30.11 @ 11:52AM
Since the neo-Liberal Paulestianian contingent is still haunting this Conservative site:
For an insider's look at Ron Paul's newsletters and a history of the movement, check out Liberal-tarian Steve Horwitz's December 23rd article over at Bleeding Heart Libertarians. An real eye opener! However we may disagree, Horwitz may be the first honest Liberal-tarian I've read...
Clint| 12.30.11 @ 1:42PM
Ronald Reagan,
" If you analyze it I believe the very heart and soul of conservatism is libertarianism. I think conservatism is really a misnomer just as liberalism is a misnomer for the liberals–if we were back in the days of the Revolution, so-called conservatives today would be the Liberals and the liberals would be the Tories. The basis of conservatism is a desire for less government interference or less centralized authority or more individual freedom and this is a pretty general description also of what libertarianism is.
Now, I can’t say that I will agree with all the things that the present group who call themselves Libertarians in the sense of a party say, because I think that like in any political movement there are shades, and there are libertarians who are almost over at the point of wanting no government at all or anarchy. I believe there are legitimate government functions. There is a legitimate need in an orderly society for some government to maintain freedom or we will have tyranny by individuals. The strongest man on the block will run the neighborhood. We have government to insure that we don’t each one of us have to carry a club to defend ourselves. But again, I stand on my statement that I think that libertarianism and conservatism are traveling the same path."
The Tea Party Rebellion Is Here And In Iowa.
Trinacria| 12.30.11 @ 5:05PM
Simple fact: If, with 1 year to go until the election, your campaign has less cash on hand than I have in my individual checking account, you have ZERO chance of winning the nomination. ZERO.
According to the most recent filing with the federal election commission, the Santorum campaign began the 4th quarter of 2011 with a grand total of $189,556 in the bank(http://query.nictusa.com/pres/2011/Q3/C00496034.html) . To put this in perspective, NBC is charging $3.5 million for a single 30-second ad for this year's superbowl. Clearly, no presidential candidate will be purchasing ad time during the superbowl; however, based on his current account balance, Santorum can't afford to purchase ad space during even the most modestly performing prime time shows (including those on networks like MSNBC and CNN who attract fewer viewers than my 10-year old nephew's Facebook page).
So returning to the premise of the article (Suppose Santorum Wins Iowa), unless the Iowa Caucus offers a purse of about $100 million, a Santorum victory will be little more than a transient news event that, to paraphrase Shakespeare, is full of sound and fury, signifying nothing....
Nite| 12.31.11 @ 8:19AM
Santorum winning Iowa would likely go the way of Mike Huckabee. He would be forced to drop out of the race endorsing Mitt Romney, who would pick up his campaign debt. Santorum has no money or organization. He also does not have any executive experience, making him unqualified to be POTUS. He is just like Obama in that regard and see how Obama has turned out.
Silvia Marquis| 1.1.12 @ 7:36AM
Mitt Romney could have logically been on Barack Obama's Vice Presidential (VP) Short list in 2008 presidential run if Mitt Romney did not flip-flop from the views he held in MA.
Mitt Romney is a chameleon and lacks a moral compass. Maybe Mitt Romney as a Moron :) I mean Mormon can support abortion. I honestly do not know enough about about the CULT of Mormonism to address the subject of Mitt Romney's support of abortion. However as the founder of Bain Capital Mitt Romney was trying to make money NOT jobs. As such Mitt Romney was pocketed way in excess of 250+ million dollars that over a quarter of a billion dollars. By charging huge fees an leveraging the company, another words the company goes out and borrow all it can to pay Bain Capital. Then Bain Capital goes public with these corpse companies to scam retirement funds and other stock investors. Bain Capital would then cash in their stock knowing fully it is worthless. The company eventually implodes and goes bankrupt screwing all it's creditors and all the workers out of a job! In summary Mitt Romney is a leech on the back of the working man and woman. A Vampire who feasts on the suffering of others. I do however profusely apologize to Leeches and Vampires and other Blood suckers in making a comparison with them and the likes of Mitt Romney. I think for the future Health of the Republican party a true conservative should take the long view and cast a protest vote for Barack Obama if Mitt Romney is the Republican nominee and standard bearer. With Barack Obama you know what you are getting and Barack Obama tries to implement what Barack Obama promises. With a Mitt Romney President you never know what you will get. Simply put make the Republican party responsive to the Christian right that it now takes for granted. A in mass protest vote by all those who oppose Mitt Romney should make the Republican party reluctant in the future to produce another scumbag like Mitt Romney as it's presidential nominee.
Silvia Marquis| 1.1.12 @ 8:29AM
Mitt Romney could have logically been on Barack Obama's Vice Presidential (VP) Short list in 2008 presidential run if Mitt Romney did not flip-flop from the views he held in MA. Mitt Romney is a chameleon and lacks a moral compass. Maybe Mitt Romney as a Moron :) I mean Mormon can support abortion. I honestly do not know enough about about the CULT of Mormonism to address the subject of Mitt Romney's support of abortion. However as the founder of Bain Capital Mitt Romney was trying to make money NOT jobs. As such Mitt Romney was pocketed way in excess of 250+ million dollars that over a quarter of a billion dollars. By charging huge fees an leveraging the companies, another words a company goes out and borrow all it can to pay Bain Capital. Then Bain Capital goes public with these corpse companies to scam retirement funds and other stock investors. Bain Capital would then cash in their stock knowing fully it is worthless. The company eventually implodes and goes bankrupt screwing all it's creditors and all the workers out of a job! In summary Mitt Romney is a leech on the back of the working man and woman. A Vampire who feasts on the suffering of others. I do however profusely apologize to Leeches and Vampires and other Blood suckers in making a comparison with them to the likes of Mitt Romney. I think for the future Health of the Republican party a true conservative should take the long view and cast a
protest vote for Barack Obama if Mitt Romney is the Republican nominee and standard bearer. With Barack Obama you know what you are getting and Barack Obama tries to implement what Barack Obama promises. With a Mitt Romney President you never know what you will get. Simply put make the Republican party responsive to the Christian right that it now takes for granted. A in mass protest vote by all those who oppose Mitt Romney should make the Republican party reluctant in the future to produce another scumbag like Mitt Romney as it's presidential nominee.
Silvia Marquis| 1.10.12 @ 5:35PM
Mitt Romney your so Bain. Mitt Romney's secret is just revealed. But is it in time to save us from him ? Please pass on these links ........ your future may depend on it !
http://www.quickmeme.com/meme/35ob97/
http://www.youtube.co/watch?v=waeD1HXjaY