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SEQUESTER: The Horror!
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SOTU Preview: Human Props, Budget Fights, and Wedge Issues
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Hello, I Must Be Going
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Weekend Political Wrap-Up, Paul Ryan Edition
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Esquire Blogger Sees Paul Ryan, Shreds His Safety Net
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The Spectacle Blog
1. The polls five days out from the Iowa caucuses couldn’t be shaping up better for Mitt Romney. He has always had a vested interest in ensuring that the competitive portion of the Republican primaries was over before large numbers of Southern states vote. He’s in a good position to do that. If Romney wins Iowa and New Hampshire — or even comes in a strong second in Iowa — he will be hard to stop.
2. South Carolina and Florida have long been vital to Newt Gingrich, or any other conservative insurgent who hoped to beat Romney. Both states become even more important if Romney does well in Iowa and wins New Hampshire. But can Gingrich’s numbers hold up in either place if he finishes outside the top three in Iowa? Can whoever does come in third take Gingrich’s place if he can’t?
3. What will the eventual Republican nominee do about Ron Paul? There are obvious pros and cons to letting Paul speak at the convention. But Paul received 1 million votes last time. He is likely to do better, and win more delegates, next year. The Republican nominee will want as many of those votes as possible, a task that will become harder if Paul endorses newly christened Libertarian Gary Johnson instead.
4. The field is likely to start narrowing on January 4. Some candidates stay in until the convention, either out of stubborness or to maximize their support. Others drop out when it becomes mathematically impossible to win the nomination. Others still drop out when they have no realistic path to victory. And then there are those who run out of money. Expect members of the last two groups to start dropping out after Iowa.
5. As well as things are shaping up for Romney, a large percentage — perhaps a majority — of Republicans don’t really want to nominate him. Expect bumps on the road to the convention, even if he manages to run the table in the early states.
6. The vice presidential sweepstakes will begin soon. If Romney does wind up the nominee, only conservatives need apply — if he wants to win.
View all comments (46) | Leave a comment
More Blog Posts by W. James Antle, III
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lester| 12.29.11 @ 3:36PM
I'm a Paul supporter but I think Romney will get the nominatin bwecause he wants it the most. gingrich wants to sell his book and promote himself. Paul, who I support now and in 08, wants I think chiefly to promote his message. Romney I think really wants THE JOB of president the most and is capable of going in there and doing it....smoothly. Wether that is a good thing or not is another question. I have to say though he didn't do anything special here in MAssachusetts really. you'd look over to NYC when guliani was mayor and it was just and utter transformation. maybe more things are possibel there than here. I don't know
Clint| 12.29.11 @ 7:23PM
Ron Paul 2012 Campaign Ad ~ Who is Mitt Romney? Created by NIU Students for Liberty
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o1wPrsEP2nc
Mittens Romnet Is A Frontman For The RINO-CINO Ruling Elite.
The Tea Party Rebellion Steps On Mittens Romney.
Dan| 12.29.11 @ 3:40PM
What happens when he prevails in the early states, but gets stopped cold when his travels take him south.
Will he go out there and start bashing the base as bigoted and prejudiced? Will he riff off of Bill Bennett's hysterical outpourings upon the subject?
What happens if the guy we're all supposed to get behind runs into some gale force winds in the American Bible Belt. Or will the establishment rip into them too.
What a winning strategy, bash the base and threaten any and all who oppose the mormon that their objections to him are all based on outdated bigotry.
What happens if the ordinary rank and file get furious about having a guy they don't much like rammed down their throats? Recall well the outcry when the jerk McCain wrapped it up. What happens if something similar happens this go 'round?
We in the GOP have won before, and we can win again without receiving so much as a single vote or Electoral College vote Northeast of the Mason Dixon Line.
But what can we hope to achieve if we go with a guy that fails to inspire, as John Hawkins quipped, anyone other than "mormons, political observers and Jennifer Rubin," {toss in Hugh Hewitt to boot!}.
Those the Gods intend to destroy, they first make mad...................
Bob Grant| 12.29.11 @ 5:24PM
It's unfair to compare McCain to Romney.
McCain has a long history of double crossing republicans and takes sadistic joy in sticking it to them at the same time lecturing about how republicans should conduct themselves.
Romney never against TWO republican tax cut proposals. He's never tried to push cap and trade legislation. He's never tried to push pro-amnesty legislation.
All this talk about Romney being a crypto liberal is baseless and purely speculative. To be fair to him, his tendencies are to be just the opposite.
Not so with McCain. His tendencies were/are liberal and was not shy about saying so. We (republicans) just didn't listen well enough. As soon as he compared himself to Teddy Roosevelt we (republicans as a group) should have dropped him like a hot potato.
Romney turn out to be another McCain but his prior actions don't justify coming to this conclusion. This is just speculation based on fear.
Give the guy a break.
Clint| 12.29.11 @ 7:28PM
We Are Being Set Up By RINO-CINO Flunkie Stooges For The Ruling Elites' Frontman Mittens Romney.
These Are The RINO-CINO Flunkie Stooges Who Gave Us The Serial Traitor To Conservatism, John McCain Of McCain-Feingold, McCain-Kennedy,McCain-Lieberman,Gang Of 14, Opposing Bush Tax Cuts Of 2001 & 2003,TARP.
Now They Are Trying To Give Us RomneyCare,TARP, Cynical Flip-Flops On Abortion, Gays, Refuses to Sign Pro-Life Pledge, Illegal Immigrants, "Little Chain Saw Al" At Bain, Crony Capitalism Campaign Money Trail.....
The Tea Party Rebellion Is Here And In Iowa.
Dan| 12.29.11 @ 3:52PM
Too bad you guys couldn't see Gingrich speaking at AEI on April 22, 2003, and just watch him go after the failures of the State Department, the repeated failures of that sacred cow Colin Powell, and the repeated screwups by the diplomatic wing of the American foreign policy establishment.
You'd see a leader, you'd see a man with the required nerve and imagination for the job.
And you'd have seen too Charles Krauthammer just sitting there in the front row, in his wheelchair, just eating it all up, with a huge smile on his face.
But hey, we can't think of Gingrich, he's a bombthrower, he's wild and hyperbolic.
Instead we better stick with the mormon stiff, whose long political career is one of misrepresentation.
JP| 12.29.11 @ 3:52PM
A Romney nomination has looked fairly certain for months. However, he will find himself in the same position as McCain did in August of 2008 if he is not careful. McCain managed to get the nomination and alienate conservatives to boot. By convention time his internal polling indicated he would get slammed by Obama, as conservatives were certain to stay home. Hence, his nomination of Sarah Palin. The Palin moved initially looked like a brilliant move; McCain's numbers sky-rocketed overnight. But, it was an unforced error. Palin wasn't ready for primetime, and McCain's handlers wouldn't lift a finger to protect her.
Mitt would be very smart to nominate a VP who would satisfy grass root conservatives (ie Teapartiers), but who is ready and able to survive the media feeding frenzy.
Dan| 12.29.11 @ 5:24PM
"[F]or months?"
Moreover, "fairly certain" for those months too?
I don't think so.
Unless that is that you possessed a robust and hardy confidence in the power of an attack onslaught to bring down anyone other than Romney. Now if that was the case, then you were proven prescient.
The mistake was in McCain's team affixing the worst communication team in US political history to "handle her," id est, suppress her. It was akin to sending Bo Jackson down to the minors.
Her instincts led her aright, that Obama needed to be gone after in a big way. But her political instincts and her savvy was always a bad fit to the supposed maverick, who proved himself unable to handle a real live maverick.
I haven't any confidence moreover in Romney's smarts. If he was as smart as some endlessly regale, ---------- how then did he manage to find himself on every side of every single major position.
sharmajee | 12.29.11 @ 8:40PM
But Palin is ready this time. Though it's doubtful if she is willing. A Romney-Palin ticket, if it can materialize, will knock the socks off any Obama+ ticket, including a desperation move of co-opting Mrs. Clinton.
Tom| 12.29.11 @ 4:46PM
If Der Kult Fuhrer does endrose a Libertine like Johnson or some other wack-job, then all the TRUE Republicans at the convention should physically bar the door to prevent him and his Paultards from entering the building.
Clint| 12.29.11 @ 7:35PM
Typical Israel Firster Smear Bund Boy, Little Tommy.
You Israel Firsters Got A Bad Habit Of Tryin' To Sucker Others Into Doin' Your Fightin' For Ya.
The Tea Party Rebellion Steps On The Israel Firster Scum.
Tom| 12.29.11 @ 7:38PM
More drival from Herr KKKlint, who never met a Jew that he didn't want to send on a one-way trip to Dachau
9thID| 12.29.11 @ 10:30PM
Klint even gives his fellow neo-Confederates a black eye...
Clint| 12.29.11 @ 11:02PM
That's A Lie.
You're A Liar, 9th IDiot.
My Family Lost Two Federal Troopers Fighting Confederate Forces.
The Tea Party Rebellion Is Here And In Iowa.
Resist We Much! | 12.30.11 @ 4:44PM
No, it is not a lie. You are just like Dr Edwin Katzen-Ellenbogen.
And, with that, Clinty's head just exploded.
Clint| 12.29.11 @ 10:59PM
That's A Lie.
You're An Israel Firster Smear Bund Boy Agenda Liar, Tommy Girl.
The Tea Party Rebellion Is Here And In Iowa.
Tom| 12.30.11 @ 6:20AM
Quit crying, Herr KKKlint, you will get your swastika wet; you neo-Nazi, Paultard scumbag.
Clint| 12.30.11 @ 10:14PM
Why Don't Try To Make Me Do Anything Israel Firster Smear Bund Girl, Thomasina.
The Tea Party Rebellion Steps On Thomasina's Dress.
Tom| 12.31.11 @ 7:43AM
OHHH!!!, Such tough talk from such a pathetic little Weenie!!
Tom| 12.31.11 @ 7:58AM
By the way, Herr KKKlint, it's unfortunate that pictures can't be posted here. You could show us all the brand new golden swastika Santa brought you for Christmas. You keep it in a very special place; on your night stand right next to the copy of "Mein Kampf" that you use for your evening devotions.
Bill Hussein O'Stalin| 12.29.11 @ 6:05PM
All this embracement of conservatism doesn't make any sense. Even Ronald Reagan could take some lessons from a real conservative.
The official policy of both parties since the 80's has been to embrace illegal immigration and once you do that, there can be no conservatism.
That's precisely why we're in the mess we're in right now. Gingrich won't change that, Paul can't change that and Santorum is a pipe dream.
That leaves Perry and Romney. I think Perry would be preferable, but Romney is certainly mainstream Republican.
By next September the economy will see more destruction as more of Obama's nightmare comes to fruition.
The nation will be looking for a problem solver and that would be Romney. No one will give a crap about the Vice-President position.
In fact, picking some radical will ensure defeat.
bill| 12.29.11 @ 6:12PM
Here's some tips for the GOP candidates:
Rick Perry: may concedes IA and NH, and diverts the resources and time in SC and FL.
Mitt Romney: must bet on NH and IA, has no chance in SC and FL
Newt Gingrich: must focus on IA and FL, forget NH (that's Romney's home turf) and SC (Evangelic voters don't like him)
Michelle Bachmann: It's IA or nothing, may bet on SC, but she needs to campaign hard there
Ron Paul: Either NH or IA, or it's over
Rick Santorum: It's IA, or may have some chance in SC
Jon Huntsman: is the "Monday morning quaterback"
Occam's Tool| 12.29.11 @ 8:21PM
Bill, I agree with you on Paul, and can't find flaws with the "inside baseball" analysis on the rest.
bill| 12.29.11 @ 8:33PM
Rick Perry is an Evangelic Christian. He is pro-life, pro-gun, and against gay marriage. I truely believe Rick Perry will be the GOP nominee, and defeat Obama in a landslide.
9thID| 12.29.11 @ 10:33PM
If only Perry would recant his heresy on illegal immigration and amnesty you might be right. If not, he's toast out here in Fly Over Country...
Butch| 12.30.11 @ 5:01PM
Perry certainly blew the tuition answer, but he is not soft on illegal immigration. He was presented with a veto-proof bill that had received less than a handful of dissenting votes by the Texas Legislature. Texas has no state income tax, and it is almost totally funded by the sales tax; thus illegals pay the same rates as Texas citizens. Anyone with four years in a Texas high school is eligible for in-state tuition. I guess the idea was to try and help make something out of them, perhaps getting them in line for citizenship, rather than leaving them in Limbo.
Also remember, there were Mexicans who died inside the Alamo. They are the Tejanos, and they are original, native Texans. Their descendants are numerous, and they are a political reality in Texas that must be considered.
RJ| 12.29.11 @ 6:51PM
I understand that the GOP establishment wants to start the Romney coronation on the evening of the New Hampshire primary, if not earlier, but the nomination won't be decided by a few states.
In 1976, Ronald Reagan had a string of losses (5, I believe) and he didn't met expectations. Nonetheless, he stayed in the race, had some big wins and almost beat an incumbent President. Just like football, what happens in the first drive can be helpful, but it does not determine the outcome of the game. The game is 4 quarters long. Declaring victory in the warm-ups means nothing.
Occam's Tool| 12.29.11 @ 8:19PM
Tell Paul he can speak at the Convention all he wants, but that the mike goes dead if he talks about marijuana or foreign policy.
Clint| 12.29.11 @ 11:05PM
You Talk To Bibi's Mike, Israel Firster Bibi Butt Boy, Tool Job.
The Tea Party Rebellion Is Here & In Iowa.
Resist We Much! | 12.30.11 @ 1:34PM
And, then you woke up in New Hampshire & South Carolina.
Clint| 12.30.11 @ 10:16PM
We Tea Party Patriots Have Been Awake Since Early 2008 And Before, Israel Firster Smear Bund Boy, WeSit Too Much.
The Tea Party Rebellion Is Here And In Iowa.
Nite| 12.29.11 @ 9:29PM
The GOP elite has all but crowned Romney. However, the conservative voters don't want him or Ron Paul. Perry would be the best conservative choice, since he has the organization and money. Bachmann and Santorum either have the organization, executive experience, or money to go much farther. I will be voting for Perry who is a true conservative. I would think the Evangelicals in Iowa would want someone who is electable, but apparently that is not in their determinations.
9thID| 12.29.11 @ 10:41PM
Newt may be right in saying that Ron Paul’s surge in Iowa is an early "protest vote" and nothing more. People out here in Fly Over are mad as hell with the establishment, and ain't gonna take it anymore! We even forced "moderate" Ben Nelson into retirement this week. If Paul does take Iowa, I have no doubt though that it would only be his Screamin' Howard Dean moment in the sun...
RJ| 12.30.11 @ 1:32AM
9thID - As a Californian, I thank-you for forcing Ben Nelson into retirement. I wish we could have done the same with Boxer. I am hoping Fly Over Country is much bigger than anticipated and that it will pull this country out of its funk and back to a healthy and prosperous reality. I doubt California will help in this effort.
Clint| 12.29.11 @ 11:07PM
Mr. Neutered Is A Serial Traitor To Conservatism.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CWKTOCP45zY
The Tea Party Rebellion Is Here And In Iowa.
Resist We Much! | 12.30.11 @ 1:43AM
Ron Paul: All Aboard! Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Haaaa! Mental Wounds Still Screaming! Driving Me Insane I'm Going Off The Rails On My Crazy Train! (And I Want To Take You Along For The Ride)
http://predicthistunpredictpas.....s-are.html
Bob Grant| 12.30.11 @ 11:11AM
Gotta love your handle.
Resist We Much! | 12.30.11 @ 1:35PM
“But resist, we much… we must… and we will much… about… that… be committed.”
– Al Sharpton, 9 August 2011
LOL!
Clint| 12.30.11 @ 2:19AM
Uh Oh !
The Israel Firster Smear Bund Boy Gnawed His Way Out Of His StraitJacket.
Remember This Screwball,
We Are Being Set Up By RINO-CINO Flunkie Stooges For The Ruling Elites' Frontman, Mittens Romney.
These Are The RINO-CINO Flunkie Stooges Who Gave Us The Serial Traitor To Conservatism, John McCain Of McCain-Feingold, McCain-Kennedy,McCain-Lieberman,Gang Of 14, Opposing Bush Tax Cuts Of 2001 & 2003,TARP.
Now They Are Trying To Give Us RomneyCare,TARP, Cynical Flip-Flops On Abortion, Gays, Refuses to Sign Pro-Life Pledge, Illegal Immigrants, "Little Chain Saw Al" At Bain, Crony Capitalism Campaign Money Trail.....
The Tea Party Rebellion Is Here And In Iowa.
Resist We Much! | 12.30.11 @ 8:29AM
And, then you woke up in New Hampshire and South Carolina!
Clint| 12.31.11 @ 1:28PM
"We don't like Israel Firster political jokes. They attempt to get elected."
Anonymous
steve in ohio| 12.30.11 @ 12:24PM
Clint,
I'm sure you mean well, but you are hurting Ron Paul. Many I talk to mention "his obnoxious supporters" as a reason why they don't support him. Perhaps change your name and start posting constructive items.
Clint| 12.30.11 @ 1:49PM
Yeah Right, RINO-CINO Boy.
Read The Iowa Polls And Tell Us All About It.
" Ron Paul wins new poll in Hawkeye State
Congressman Ron Paul (R-TX), a candidate for the Republican presidential nomination, bested former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich in an American Research Group of likely Iowa GOP caucusgoers Friday. Mr. Paul’s lead is small, but the Texas congressman pulled in 21 percent of the votes to lead the GOP pack for the 4th time in less than a week."
The Tea Party Rebellion Steps On The RINO-CINO's.
Stephen Boone | 12.30.11 @ 10:51AM
Unlike Mr. Tyrrell I have NOT given up on Rick Perry. He needs training, but his faults are of the type that can be trained away. Remember Obama when he didn't yet bring the electronic crutches -- even to speak to third graders?? When he would put one hand up to an ear and couldn't find an answer even there should the crowd be too noisy?? Reagan carried those 3 by 5 cards with him unashamed. Others write on their hands. Were I -- God knows I could do better than some who are -- advising Gov RP I would tell him to grab a few 3 by 5's, but more important at this stage LEARN how to avoid the type of listing of names answers that freeze you up. That is a mistake brought on yourself. The American people can forgive a self deprecating man whose VALUES are in the right place. On the other hand, they do NOT intend to send someone who seems determined to fight with a congress of his own party, demanding they cut their own pay? Of course the constitution forbids even THEM from doing so without an intervening election. Make it an expression of disgust with non performing government ,but for crying out loud STOP the specifics NOW. Move on, the biggest problem is "regulation nation", a congress that no longer writes any laws, but simply sets up beaurocracies and empowers THEM to rule us. THAT is something people don't understand, but can be made to understand and loathe as they should.
9thID| 12.30.11 @ 11:42AM
Since the neo-Liberal Paulestianian contingent is still haunting this Conservative site:
For an insider's look at Ron Paul's newsletters and a history of the movement, check out Liberal-tarian Steve Horwitz's December 23rd article over at Bleeding Heart Libertarians. An real eye opener! However we may disagree, Horwitz my be the first honest Liberal-tarian I've read...
Clint| 12.30.11 @ 1:52PM
Ronald Reagan,
" If you analyze it I believe the very heart and soul of conservatism is libertarianism. I think conservatism is really a misnomer just as liberalism is a misnomer for the liberals–if we were back in the days of the Revolution, so-called conservatives today would be the Liberals and the liberals would be the Tories. The basis of conservatism is a desire for less government interference or less centralized authority or more individual freedom and this is a pretty general description also of what libertarianism is.
Now, I can’t say that I will agree with all the things that the present group who call themselves Libertarians in the sense of a party say, because I think that like in any political movement there are shades, and there are libertarians who are almost over at the point of wanting no government at all or anarchy. I believe there are legitimate government functions. There is a legitimate need in an orderly society for some government to maintain freedom or we will have tyranny by individuals. The strongest man on the block will run the neighborhood. We have government to insure that we don’t each one of us have to carry a club to defend ourselves. But again, I stand on my statement that I think that libertarianism and conservatism are traveling the same path."
The Tea Party Rebellion Steps On The Israel Firster Smear Bund Boy.