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The Spectacle Blog
Former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson is set to announce that he is ending his bid for the Republican presidential nomination annd beginning a campaign to be the Libertarian Party’s nominee for president.
On first glance, a Johnson third party candidacy raises the same question as whether a falling tree in a forest makes a sound if no one is there to hear it. Johnson was only invited to participate in two Republican debates, hovered around 1 percent in the polls, and never had much impact. His candidacy ceased to make sense when it became clear that Ron Paul was going to make a strong second run for the nomination. Johnson made sure to marginalize it even further by softening the stances that were attracting people to Paul (foreign policy and the Fed) while emphasizing a social liberalism shared by few Republican primary voters.
Bob Barr failed to make much of a splash as the Libertarian nominee in 2008. Pat Buchanan did even worse when he was the Reform Party’s candidate in 2000. A pro-choice pursuer of the pagan vote who says that the Constitution requires same-sex marriage is going to have limited appeal to conservatives who don’t want to vote for Mitt Romney.
What could make Johnson different, however, is that you will have a large number of Ron Paul voters looking for somewhere to go in a hypothetical Obama-Romney or even Obama-Gingrich race. Paul received over 1 million votes in the GOP primaries last time around when his poll numbers were much worse. He has significant support outside the party. In theory, if Johnson (who has a legitimate gripe about his exclusion from the early Republican debates, at least) can appeal to these voters, he could be the biggest Libertarian candidate since the 1980 Clark-Koch ticket, though probably not as big as Paul himself could be on that stage.
UPDATE: I argued a while back that Paul would do better in the Republican primaries than Johnson. The piece also explores their differing approaches to libertarianism.
UPDATE II: Johnson could swing New Mexico, one of the states that is in play between Obama and the Republican nominee this year.
View all comments (11) | Leave a comment
More Blog Posts by W. James Antle, III
http://spectator.org/blog/2011/12/28/gary-johnson-bolting-gop-will
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Dai Alanye | 12.28.11 @ 12:39PM
We've known this for several weeks. Here's hoping some nobody beats him out for the nomination.
Occam's Tool| 12.28.11 @ 1:46PM
Loser: meet Paulbot losers.
Weather report for Des Moines on Tuesday: 34 degrees and clear. Preceeded by 5 clear days. Seems the L-rd of Hosts wants to kick Paul's ass. Treason has no harbor in his eyes.
Shoofly3| 12.28.11 @ 2:40PM
So what you're saying is that the "L-rd of Hosts" really likes Romney. Uh oh. Anyone know where I can get a Book of Mormon?
Clint| 12.28.11 @ 1:57PM
" Poll: Ron Paul pommels Romney, Gingrich in Iowa
Congressman Ron Paul (R-TX), a candidate for the Republican presidential nomination, pommeled former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich in a Public Policy Polling poll of likely Iowa GOP caucusgoers released Tuesday. Mr. Paul won the Iowa PPP poll with 24 percent of the votes. Mr. Romney pulled in 20 percent of the votes and Mr. Gingrich garnered 13 percent of the votes."
The Tea Party Rebellion Is Here And In Iowa.
Chris| 12.28.11 @ 1:57PM
Vote for your favorite candidate in the poll at National Sponsor.
Be sure to check out the videos and articles on American politics and the candidates while there.
Kingofthenet| 12.28.11 @ 1:58PM
God, I hope he screws up you Rethugs as much as Nadir did to us in 2000!
Ed| 12.28.11 @ 2:12PM
He won't appeal to the Libertarians. He's not a jew hating gold bug nazi sympathizer.
Imissbuckley| 12.28.11 @ 4:07PM
Neither are most libertarians which is why many of their institutions have preferred Gary Johnson or Jon Huntsman over Ron Paul. But when the those candidates flopped and the choice is between Paul and the other relatively generic GOPers then they of course they flocked to the Paul candidacy.
As for Johnson himself, he never had much of a chance and should of probably ran for the U.S. Senate out in New Mexico. I actually think he would make a pretty decent Senator.
Clint| 12.28.11 @ 3:51PM
That's A Lie Israel Firster Smear Bund Boy, Little Eddie.
The Tea Party Rebellion Steps On The Israel Firster Bug, Little Eddie.