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SEQUESTER: The Horror!
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Hello, I Must Be Going
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Weekend Political Wrap-Up, Paul Ryan Edition
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Esquire Blogger Sees Paul Ryan, Shreds His Safety Net
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The Spectacle Blog
The news that Newt Gingrich and Rick Perry won’t make the Virginia Republican primary ballot but Mitt Romney and Ron Paul will tells us something about the GOP presidential race that national polls can’t: that Gingrich’s lack of a real organization — we’ll leave the Perry camp’s rather different problems aside for a moment — will be a real problem. A campaign that can’t reliably qualify its candidates for state ballots will 1.) forfeit those primaries and 2.) have difficulty identifying and turning out supporters in the states where they are on the ballot.
Nontraditional campaigns can serve a candidate well when it comes to leading in polls, especially nationwide. It worked for Fred Thompson and Herman Cain, and it is working for Gingrich. But that isn’t the way the nomination is decided. Such campaigns have yet to prove themselves capable of doing the hard state-by-state work it takes to actually secure the delegates necessary to claim the prize. That’s why for all his unpopularity and his apparent 30 percent ceiling, Organization Man Romney can’t be counted out yet.
UPDATE: Richard Winger details changes in the Virginia GOP’s ballot access requirements that would have negatively impacted Newt and company. But even if this late change is dirty pool (and it may be), the fact remains that most states will check your signatures.
View all comments (36) | Leave a comment
More Blog Posts by W. James Antle, III
http://spectator.org/blog/2011/12/26/the-trouble-with-nontraditiona
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PattyMor| 12.26.11 @ 11:56AM
So are you telling us to surrender and suffer our fate? Or to plod on with hopes to save the Republic?
If push comes to shove and those are the only two alternatives, what to do suggest?
Dan| 12.26.11 @ 1:38PM
What happens when Romney loses Virginia to Paul?
What happens if Virginia primary turnout plummets?
Or what happens if Romney barely edges out Paul by like a thousand votes or something?
IMAGINE the political damage to the Republican party and ultimate standard bearer if Romney barely edges out Paul?
People who artificially winnowed the field in Virginia to Romney and the kook are going to look awfully damn dense when Paul either wins outright or loses so narrowly as to amount to a victory!
PsychoDad| 12.26.11 @ 2:00PM
When anyone loses to Paul, unicorns will sh1t jelly beans instead of rainbows.
Clint| 12.26.11 @ 2:18PM
We Tea Party Patriots And Our Presidential Co-Favorite Dr.Ron Paul Play Four Quarters And Don't Leave It In The Locker Room, Sport
The Tea Party Rebellion Is Here And In Iowa.
Red Phillips | 12.26.11 @ 12:33PM
I don't feel the least bit sorry for either of these clowns. Both are on the record as opposed to efforts to decrease the requirements for third parties to get on the ballot which in many states are extremely onerous. Perry even vetoed legislation that would have eased requirements in Texas which is one of the hardest states in the Union to get on.
In the next debate the first question both of these yahoos should be asked is "Based on your experience in Virginia with difficult ballot access barriers, would you now support efforts (state by state) to decrease ballot access requirements for third parties and independents?” I would love to either get them or the record or smoke them out as hypocrites.
Red Phillips | 12.26.11 @ 12:34PM
"get them or the record"
Oops ... on the record.
Bumr50| 12.26.11 @ 12:35PM
Don't hate the playa - hate the game.
Proud Mormon| 12.26.11 @ 12:53PM
I told you Gingrich was a joke. He spends too much time on cruise ships and not registering in time in his adoptive home state speaks volumes effectively ending his campaign. Mitt Romney will be your nominee and the next President of the United States.
Dan| 12.26.11 @ 1:45PM
Typically unaware comment from that community....................
The rules were changed, they were changed not nine months ago, not even ninety days ago, and the threshold requirements were DRAMATICALLY altered, and altered to the advantage of a campaign who had already contested Virginia.
Thus EVERY SINGLE candidate who didn't compete in 2008 and 2000 was disadvantaged by the rules change.
Moreover the rules change occurred IN THE MIDST of the primary season, which didn't leave well-financed campaigns a good deal of time to respond.
You critique Gingrich for spending too much time on cruise ships.
What then of a candidate who spends his time, subsidizing behind the scenes, on the down low as it were, NR?
What then of a guy who buys a radio host under the predicate of a book deal?
What of a guy who campaigns, and drags his whole family along on the Presidential campaign trail, drags HIS WHOLE FAMILY, kids, wife the lot, FOR SEVEN LONG YEARS on some morbid grail quest?
What of a guy who TRIES to FORCE HIMSELF on a party and electorate that CLEARLY doesn't want any part of him?
What of a guy who tries to turn a debate on the issues into some weird referendum on who has, or has not, been "loyal" to his wife?
Cut us all a break.
Your Mormon is unlikely to get the nomination, and the moment it looks like he's sealed the deal we'll see a moment just like we did four years ago when McCain prevailed.
There's NOTHING reputable about a man who will say anything to any group so as to garner their political support.
NOTHING.
Your mormon is a damned degenerate, an intellectual degenerate!
PsychoDad| 12.26.11 @ 2:01PM
Tr: "Mormons are a scary CULT!"
Dan| 12.26.11 @ 2:19PM
Didn't need to go there........
But for the record error hasn't any rights......
But if the mormon should garner the nomination, who here doubts that all of America is going to be forced to know things about mormonism that the rest of us would prefer never to hear about.
Besides warping the election into a battle between haves and have nots, the Dems and the media will warp it into some weird theological seminar into what is, and what is not, religiously and theologically credible and legitimate.
AND THIS by a campaign and a media that did so much to provide cover for Jeremiah Wright!
steve| 12.26.11 @ 9:57PM
Dan,
You are a bigoted idiot.
Dan| 12.26.11 @ 11:37PM
Is Mormonism extended a pass from rational review?
In his speech at Regensburg, Josef Ratzinger, Pope Benedict XVI said that ALL religions must pass a rationality test, a reasonableness test. Is Mormonism dispensed from such an analysis?
Of course this is taking as given that my remarks WERE as you termed them, idiotically termed them by the way, "bigoted."
Since when does an idea, a belief system have rights? I thought people had rights, but not ideas, and never error? Or as that too anachronistic?
Or do you know off hand what anachronistic means? I doubt it.
Chuck| 12.26.11 @ 2:59PM
The post's theme is correct. Newt was a total idiot not registering in his home state well in advanced and making the absurd statement about a write-in candidacy when no write-ins are permitted in the primary. That cruise early in the campaign did indeed tell us something.
Clint| 12.26.11 @ 1:02PM
Actually, Pro-Obama Troll,
The RINO-CINO Flunkie Stooges Gave Us The Serial Traitor To Conservatism, John McCain Of McCain-Feingold, McCain-Kennedy,McCain-Lieberman,Gang Of 14, Opposing Bush Tax Cuts Of 2001 & 2003,TARP.
Now They Are Trying To Give Us RomneyCare,TARP, Cynical Flip-Flops On Abortion, Gays, Refuses to Sign Pro-Life Pledge, Illegal Immigrants, "Little Chain Saw Al" At Bain, Crony Capitalism Campaign Money Trail.....
The Tea Party Rebellion Is Here And In Iowa.
Dan| 12.26.11 @ 1:49PM
Clint, careful with your choice of wording.
They're not trying to "give us" so much as they're damned and determined to ram it and Romney right down our throat, and the more that we and the rank and file resist, the more pleasure they get out of that ramming him.
This is political rape!
For seven long years Romney has tried to rape the rank and file, and force himself and his whole damn brood upon us!
THAT'S what's going on!
PsychoDad| 12.26.11 @ 2:03PM
"Careful with his choice of wording?" I don't think he "chooses" his wording. Based on all his posts, I think he just turns on some Dilbertian random rant generator and hopes it makes some kind of sense.
Clint| 12.26.11 @ 2:13PM
But Then Again You're A Psycho.
Dan| 12.26.11 @ 1:35PM
The Virginia GOP just changed the rules, upped the threshold requirement to get on the ballot by FIFTY PERCENT, changed the rules IN NOVEMBER, of this year, THIS YEAR, and changed the rules IN THE MIDST of a Presidential primary season.
Now who here believes that this wasn't done to advance a single candidacy.
EVERY single candidate who appealed to Conservatives was simply prohibited from finding a place on the ballot.
EVERY SINGLE ONE OF THEM
Now if that's what needs to be done to advance a Romney candidacy, IF THAT'S what needs to be done to carry Romney to barely the mid 20s in national polling in the party, ------------------------- why then are there some chirping endlessly about Romney's electability?
Romney is being carried.
Romney is literally being pulled and dragged across the finish line, and he needs to be pulled to beat our Gingrich, to beat our a woman who hasn't spent a decade on the Hill, and dragged over the line against a former Senator who got blown out in Pennsylvania!
AGAINST THIS FIELD Romney STILL needs to be carried!
Ken MacAlister Jr.| 12.26.11 @ 9:08PM
You forgot one thing Dan. Even after he is dragged across the primary finish line he is still going to get smoked by the worst POTUS in history. If McCain couldn't beat him, Romney certainly will not. The Stupid Party will get the defeat they deserve next year for trying to force him on the conservatives among the electorate.
Dan| 12.26.11 @ 11:41PM
I concur.
Romney is going to get smoked!
Romney is going to get scorched, and Obama and his team, {which includes the media} is going to take this race and turn it into a war between the haves and the have nots, AND turn it into a referendum on whether or not Mormonism is weird.
I'm convinced that if Romney gets the nomination, every historical claim, every historical incident, every misdeed that could possibly be laid at the feet of mormonism is going to be dredged up for all of us.
And all Romney will do, {that passive-aggresive wimp!} is whine about it, how unfair it all is.
He's not remotely ready for the nomination.
He's not remotely equal to the office were he by some miracle to prevail.
Occam's Tool| 12.26.11 @ 1:39PM
And I would still prefer Romney to Obama. Romney can be led by Congress, which will be Republican and Conservative.
Clint| 12.26.11 @ 1:46PM
" Ron Paul’s “Tea Party” money bomb meets $4 million goal
Ron Paul (R-TX), a candidate for the Republican presidential nomination, ended his “Tea Party” money bomb Sunday at midnight. Mr. Paul succeeded in meeting his fundraising goal of $4 million. The Paul campaign plans on using the grassroots donations for additional campaign activities in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. With the donation ticker still climbing, Mr. Paul has raised more than $4,048,000 as of 9am EDT Monday.'
The Tea Party Rebellion Is Here And In Iowa.
PsychoDad| 12.26.11 @ 2:04PM
Paulifarians are more annoying than Jehovahs Witlesses.
Clint| 12.26.11 @ 2:15PM
But Then Again, You're More Psycho Than Jehovah's Witnesses.
Oldefarte| 12.26.11 @ 4:20PM
Geez, Ronnie's marching dictation for the day is in overdrive, as this same crap has been typically C&P'd on numerous articles here today. Ronnie is great, Ronnie is great, Ronnie is great; ronnie is my savior, Ronnie is my savior, Ronnie is my savior; Hope&Change;, Hope&Change;, Hope & Change!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Clint| 12.26.11 @ 5:04PM
Students For Liberty.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o1wPrsEP2nc
The Tea Party Rebellion Is Here And In Iowa.
wodiej| 12.27.11 @ 10:00AM
Tea Party? LOLLOLOLOLOLOL...........right. Tea Party people do not support Ron Paul.
tonynoboloney| 12.26.11 @ 1:59PM
Its just as well Ginrich & Perry are unable to get in the Virginia Primary. They both fell down at the very first opportunity. America deserves better from our leaders.
Dan| 12.26.11 @ 2:39PM
Gingrich "fell down" did he?
If the USS Arizona and USS West Virginia and USS Tennessee and USS Pennsylvania could be described as having "fallen" to the bottom of the harbour, then sure, one might be able to describe Gingrich's candidacy as having "fallen" too.
But political observers noted some time ago that Gingrich and all things Gingrich were being saturated by an unrelenting bombing campaign that continues to this day, to this VERY day.
Perry "fell down;" Perry blew up his own campaign; Perry mortified one and all by his pathetic debate performances, every single one of his debate performances witnessed his inexplicable ignorance on so many issues. Perry demonstrated to the nth degree that he was unready.
But not so Gingrich.
Gingrich rose by sheer excellence on the stage, without any ads to support him. He was running a campaign on a shoestring budget against a well-heeled monolith supported by all the establishment organs, YET HE WAS WINNING.
And that establishment, those organs, those hatred spewing fanatics who prefer to delude themselves that they're measured and sober, turned on him with a ferocity and a bitterness rarely seen in the GOP.
That's what happened.
Oldefarte| 12.26.11 @ 4:22PM
yeah, and all the while, Barry's little Acorn lemmings are marching side-by-side with the Paulistas toward victory in November of next year. Hell, they're probably in cahoots with each other. WAKE UP AMERICA!!!!!!!!!!
Clint| 12.26.11 @ 5:05PM
The RINO-CINO Apologists Are Scared.
Students For Liberty.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o1wPrsEP2nc
The tea Party Rebellion Is Here And In Iowa.
Interested Conservative| 12.26.11 @ 5:48PM
Mr. Antle - in another month or so I wonder if this will not concern either Perry or Gingrich nearly as much as it does the state of Virginia.
I don't know that there's "dirty pool" involved so much as a somewhat capricious change which could have caught anyone.
Of course, if nobody had qualified, it would prove the point, as well as if all had qualified.
All of this, of course, is in contrast to the recall campaign in Wisconsin, where the state board has essentially concluded that they won't review any signatures, and practically invited fraud.
Interesting to see of the DOJ Voting Rights Section is reviewing any of this, in the context of the 10th amendment of course.
m| 12.26.11 @ 10:47PM
It is the race for Romney to lose the 2012 primary election and he will not get the nominee in 2012.
wodiej| 12.27.11 @ 9:58AM
It doesn't matter if most states check signatures-Virginia wasn't until November! It is not coincidence that the only two who are on the ballot are Ron Paul who hasn't a snowballs chance of winning the nomination. And the GOP establishment pick. When states decide a few months before the primaries will begin that they are going to move up their dates they throw off the campaign schedule of most except those two who have been running for president for several years. You can't fault Gingrich and Perry for that. Something foul here and it's got the GOP establishment fingerprints on it.
Who writes these articles anyway-high school students?
Clint| 12.27.11 @ 7:33PM
" Ron Paul wins new poll in Hawkeye State
Congressman Ron Paul (R-TX), a candidate for the Republican presidential nomination, bested former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich in an American Research Group of likely Iowa GOP caucusgoers Friday. Mr. Paul’s lead is small, but the Texas congressman pulled in 21 percent of the votes to lead the GOP pack for the 4th time in less than a week."
The Tea Party Rebellion Is Here And In Iowa.