If Mitt Romney wins next week’s Iowa caucuses, blame global
warming.
Mild weather on caucus night Jan. 3 would help a well-funded
moderate like the former Massachusetts governor. However, if one of
Iowa’s fierce winter storms should hit next Tuesday, the blizzard
would favor those candidates with more fanatical supporters,
including Texas Rep. Ron Paul. At least
that’s how former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee sees it.
“If the weather is good, Mitt Romney is in better shape. If the
weather is bad and it’s real tough to get out, Ron Paul will win,”
Huckabee said on “Fox News Sunday.” Huckabee, who scored an upset
win in Iowa four years ago, said Paul’s supporters have
“extraordinary devotion” and are willing to “walk over broken glass
for him.”
At this point, meteorological predictions would appear to favor
Romney. The
Weather Channel 10-day forecast for Cedar Rapids, Iowa —
where I’ll be flying in Monday to begin eight days of campaign
coverage — shows mostly sunny and relatively warm weather for the
Hawkeye State. Only one day (Monday, Jan. 2) between now and the
first-in-the-nation caucuses will have a high temperature below
freezing. Several days will have highs in the low 40s. No snow is
forecast in the next 10 days, and there is only one day with a 20
percent chance of rain. For the actual day of the caucuses, the
current forecast is for mostly sunny skies with a high of 36
degrees.
Such predictions would appear to impair the prospects of a
victory by the libertarian Paul, but
Huckabee told Mike Wallace of Fox News he sees the potential
for one other candidate to outperform the political forecast. “Rick
Santorum, I believe is being greatly underestimated in this race. I
believe he will be the surprise candidate, not necessarily to win
it, but to be in the top three or four when people don’t expect him
to be,” he said.
Two recent Iowa polls, including the
latest survey by Rasmussen Reports, have shown Santorum with 10
percent support. For months, Santorum’s poll numbers have been
stuck in the single digits, while the former Pennsylvania senator
has relentlessly campaigned in all 99 Iowa counties. In the past
three weeks, however, Santorum’s candidacy has been boosted by
favorable mentions from
former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin and radio talk-show hosts
Mark Levin and
Glenn Beck. Santorum has also added endorsements by important
social conservative leaders in the Hawkeye State, including
Pastor Cary Gordon and
Bob Vander Plaats, as well as
Iowa Secretary of State Matt Schultz.
Polls during the past week have shown a
sharp decline for former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who left
the campaign trail in Iowa last week to hold events in Virginia, as
part of an effort to get his name on the ballot in that state’s
March 6 primary. That attempt fell short — only Romney and
Paul qualified for the Virginia ballot — and his failure may
further undermine perceptions of Gingrich as a credible
conservative alternative to Romney. “It’s a disaster for him,”
University of Virginia political science professor
Larry J. Sabato told the New York Times. “This sends
yet another signal to Republicans that Gingrich is not able to
organize.”
If recent
polls in Iowa are an accurate barometer, Santorum’s low-budget
underdog campaign may be poised for a last-minute surge at just the
right time to boost him ahead in the pack of so-called “second
tier” Republican candidates that also includes Texas Gov. Rick
Perry and Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachman. One veteran observer of
Hawkeye State politics sees those candidates fighting, along with
Gingrich, for a spot in the top three on Jan. 3.
“Iowa is not about who wins, but it’s about who gets one of the
three tickets out,” Iowa GOP consultant Steve Grubbs told
Davenport’s Quad-City Times. “It’s my belief you will
have a moderate, a conservative and a libertarian. The question is,
who will be the conservative?”
