The Spectacle Blog
If Mitt Romney wins next week’s Iowa caucuses, blame global warming.
Mild weather on caucus night Jan. 3 would help a well-funded moderate like the former Massachusetts governor. However, if one of Iowa’s fierce winter storms should hit next Tuesday, the blizzard would favor those candidates with more fanatical supporters, including Texas Rep. Ron Paul. At least that’s how former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee sees it.
“If the weather is good, Mitt Romney is in better shape. If the weather is bad and it’s real tough to get out, Ron Paul will win,” Huckabee said on “Fox News Sunday.” Huckabee, who scored an upset win in Iowa four years ago, said Paul’s supporters have “extraordinary devotion” and are willing to “walk over broken glass for him.”
At this point, meteorological predictions would appear to favor Romney. The Weather Channel 10-day forecast for Cedar Rapids, Iowa — where I’ll be flying in Monday to begin eight days of campaign coverage — shows mostly sunny and relatively warm weather for the Hawkeye State. Only one day (Monday, Jan. 2) between now and the first-in-the-nation caucuses will have a high temperature below freezing. Several days will have highs in the low 40s. No snow is forecast in the next 10 days, and there is only one day with a 20 percent chance of rain. For the actual day of the caucuses, the current forecast is for mostly sunny skies with a high of 36 degrees.
Such predictions would appear to impair the prospects of a victory by the libertarian Paul, but Huckabee told Mike Wallace of Fox News he sees the potential for one other candidate to outperform the political forecast. “Rick Santorum, I believe is being greatly underestimated in this race. I believe he will be the surprise candidate, not necessarily to win it, but to be in the top three or four when people don’t expect him to be,” he said.
Two recent Iowa polls, including the latest survey by Rasmussen Reports, have shown Santorum with 10 percent support. For months, Santorum’s poll numbers have been stuck in the single digits, while the former Pennsylvania senator has relentlessly campaigned in all 99 Iowa counties. In the past three weeks, however, Santorum’s candidacy has been boosted by favorable mentions from former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin and radio talk-show hosts Mark Levin and Glenn Beck. Santorum has also added endorsements by important social conservative leaders in the Hawkeye State, including Pastor Cary Gordon and Bob Vander Plaats, as well as Iowa Secretary of State Matt Schultz.
Polls during the past week have shown a sharp decline for former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who left the campaign trail in Iowa last week to hold events in Virginia, as part of an effort to get his name on the ballot in that state’s March 6 primary. That attempt fell short — only Romney and Paul qualified for the Virginia ballot — and his failure may further undermine perceptions of Gingrich as a credible conservative alternative to Romney. “It’s a disaster for him,” University of Virginia political science professor Larry J. Sabato told the New York Times. “This sends yet another signal to Republicans that Gingrich is not able to organize.”
If recent polls in Iowa are an accurate barometer, Santorum’s low-budget underdog campaign may be poised for a last-minute surge at just the right time to boost him ahead in the pack of so-called “second tier” Republican candidates that also includes Texas Gov. Rick Perry and Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachman. One veteran observer of Hawkeye State politics sees those candidates fighting, along with Gingrich, for a spot in the top three on Jan. 3.
“Iowa is not about who wins, but it’s about who gets one of the three tickets out,” Iowa GOP consultant Steve Grubbs told Davenport’s Quad-City Times. “It’s my belief you will have a moderate, a conservative and a libertarian. The question is, who will be the conservative?”
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PattyMor| 12.25.11 @ 5:27PM
Rick Santorum would do nicely as the conservative who surges into the top. For if we are going to stop Mittens, we need the field winnowed down to a manageable few so we can concentrate our resources on one of them.
Missile Toe| 12.25.11 @ 9:59PM
Rick Perry has nothing going for him but a ton of money and a teaspoon of charisma.
Rick Santorum is Rick Perry minus the money and charisma.
Vickie| 12.26.11 @ 12:25AM
Governor Perry has an outstanding record in Texas. Job creation and the economy will be top issues in the next election. Texas is the 13th largest economy in the world. He is a true conservative and is prolife. Governor Perry supports limited government and he is a big believer in the 10th amendment. He would greatly reduce the federal government's role and return the power to the States. I believe he would be good for America and hope others will consider his record and accomplishments. Despite the attitude of the media, I believe he is a very strong candidate.
PCC| 12.25.11 @ 5:50PM
Dear Mr. McCain,
Compliments of the season to you and your colleagues at American Spectator.
Well, I admire your admiration for Sen. Santorum.
Just a few days ago you wrote that Sen Santorum had"good reason to be hopeful" in Iowa because recent polls showed him in a "three-way tie for fourth place."
Is that how victory is defined in today's America? If so, then it's no wonder the Chinese are kicking our asses.
Celeste| 12.25.11 @ 5:55PM
Yea, thats the kind of tepid support everyone other candidate has but Ron Paul . Fair weather supporters. Gee, I hope its a nice night so my supporters will come out. Lame.
C Bowen | 12.25.11 @ 6:35PM
I heard Santorum is scrounging Iowa for Saddam;s WMDs--is there any truth to that?
What a sad fate for the other McCain, same as the McCain.
eet joe peas| 12.25.11 @ 6:35PM
Is Huck assuming that Ron Paul supporters will be any less enthusiastic if the weather is good? Establishment republicans & democrats fear Ron Paul. He is messing up their playpen.
LovelyLily| 12.25.11 @ 7:41PM
Ron Paul will have a great showing no matter the weather.
He gets support from all age groups.
Joe| 12.25.11 @ 8:37PM
Santorium would be a funny president. He has a constant look on this face like he just crapped himself.
chuck| 12.26.11 @ 9:03AM
Actually he looks like he hasn't crapped in a month!
He reminds me the the guy in The DaVinci Code, who flogged himself daily in order to understand the pain that Christ went through.
Clint| 12.25.11 @ 10:40PM
" Possible Ron Paul Iowa Win Drives NeoCons to Apoplexy.
Rep. Ron Paul’s top-tier status heading into Iowa and New Hampshire means he definitely can’t be totally ignored by the major media, as he has been in the past. So the censors and blackout artists have been replaced by the smear bund. This past week they got pretty well revved up, but they’re still probably a long way from being in high gear.
Over the past week, the apoplectic attack dogs of the neoconservative kennel were unleashed for a rabid, howling blitz against the Texas Congressman. It’s testimony to Dr. Paul’s squeaky clean personal and political life that the attackers have been forced to fabricate issues with which to clobber him. No sex scandals. No political payoffs from Freddie Mac or favoritism for Goldman Sachs. No political flip-flops on issues. No sellouts to special interests. So how do you attack a straight arrow such as Dr. Paul who is a constitutional purist and has doggedly stuck to his convictions for over three decades of public life? Well, they’re dusting off their playbook from the 2008 presidential campaign, and adding a few new twists. The smear bund is harping on several memes, hoping that sufficient repetition from multiple voices will convince voters that Ron Paul is “dangerous,” “crazy,” a “pacifist,” an “isolationist,” a “conspiracy crank,” and a “grumpy old man.”
And, let’s not forget, most of all, the “racist” and “anti-Semite” labels the smear bund is attempting to affix to Ron Paul. In adopting this tactic, the neocon attack dogs have torn a page from the Obama/Democrat/MSM “progressive” playbook. Will this tune play in Des Moines, Davenport, Cedar Rapids — and beyond? Perhaps, with the woefully uninformed; but for the Tea Party conservatives in Iowa who form a large part of the Paul support base, this will sound precisely like the false charges which Tea Party activists have been subjected to for the past several years."
The Tea Party Rebellion Is Here And In Iowa.
Red Phillips | 12.25.11 @ 10:43PM
RSM, are you supporting Santorum? Say it isn't so.
Mike Rogers | 12.25.11 @ 11:12PM
Read him over at theothermccain.com and see for yourself: yes, indeedy he is backing Santorum. I met RSM on the blog/campaign trail, and share his liking for Cain. I believe RSM gets some of his edgy style from having an underdog to champion in the fight, and I can't totally disagree with his choice. I have a great deal of time for Santorum, who is clearly running for captain of the starship "Moral Enterprise", but I'm backing Newt, because, with my eyes wide open to his flaws, I believe he will best take the fight to the enemy (and after he's dealt with the media, take on Obama, too).
Red Phillips | 12.26.11 @ 2:10PM
Mike, I wish I hadn't gone to theothermccain website, because I didn't like what I saw. RSM used to be someone paleocons like myself considered sympathetic, but he has apparently gone full mainstream movement con native. I just assumed that since RSM opposed the invasion of Iraq and I thought had non-interventionist sympathies that he was supporting Ron Paul, but sadly I see that is not true. The man who was once the victim of an attempted PC purge, has now become the purger. I hope whatever was in that mess of pottage was worth it.
Red Phillips | 12.25.11 @ 10:44PM
Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow.
Occam's Tool| 12.25.11 @ 11:42PM
I expect beautiful, mild weather.
High around 41, clear weather on the 10 day forecast. Paul doesn't win, his race is over, rover.
chuck| 12.26.11 @ 9:08AM
And if he does, he just survives for another couple of weeks, NH, SC,FL, and Super Tuesday will do him in for sure.
I think if Paul wins, Republicans will surge around Romney as the not-Paul candidate. Kind of like what Dems did with Kerry in 2004, the electable, not-Howard Dean candidate.
Clint| 12.26.11 @ 9:59AM
We Are Being Set Up By RINO-CINO Flunkie Stooges For The Ruling Elites' Frontman Mittens Romney.
These Are The RINO-CINO Flunkie Stooges Who Gave Us The Serial Traitor To Conservatism, John McCain Of McCain-Feingold, McCain-Kennedy,McCain-Lieberman,Gang Of 14, Opposing Bush Tax Cuts Of 2001 & 2003,TARP.
Now They Are Trying To Give Us RomneyCare,TARP, Cynical Flip-Flops On Abortion, Gays, Refuses to Sign Pro-Life Pledge, Illegal Immigrants, "Little Chain Saw Al" At Bain, Crony Capitalism Campaign Money Trail.....
The Tea Party Rebellion Is Here And In Iowa.
Occam's Tool| 12.27.11 @ 12:32PM
Chuckster, you are Prime Ribeye, my man!
Clint| 12.26.11 @ 6:14AM
" Ron Paul wins new poll in Hawkeye State
Congressman Ron Paul (R-TX), a candidate for the Republican presidential nomination, bested former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich in an American Research Group of likely Iowa GOP caucusgoers Friday. Mr. Paul’s lead is small, but the Texas congressman pulled in 21 percent of the votes to lead the GOP pack for the 4th time in less than a week.
Mr. Romney, who has only beaten Mr. Paul once this week, is in second place with 20 percent of the votes. Mr. Gingrich, who was once the frontrunner in the Hawkeye State, garnered 19 percent of the votes to finish in third place."
The Tea Party Rebellion Is Here And In Iowa.
martin j smith| 12.26.11 @ 7:51AM
Iowa is a corn state that gets corn subsidies I hear. So which way will the wind blow there. You know what--who knows and who cares. Iowa is a low population state and does not represent the whole shebang, I have another brilliant idea. Let see what the primaries bring out and then we will see who gets the nomination. And btw there is not one candidate that has a significant enough backing to claim any kind of mandate as the chosen one. Not yet anyway and I do not believe Iowa will change that. No one is perfect and they all have flaws. And there is no majority backing anyone yet. So take a pill and sit back and enjoy the show.
Clint| 12.26.11 @ 8:09AM
" GOP: Gingrich, Perry will not be on Virginia ballot
Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and Texas Gov. Rick Perry have failed to qualify for Virginia’s March 6 Republican primary, a setback in their bids for the Republican presidential nomination.'
The Republican Party of Virginia announced the developments Friday and early Saturday, saying that the two have failed to submit the required 10,000 signatures to get on the ballot.
That Gingrich and Perry failed to get on the ballot in this state that votes on Super Tuesday underscored the difficulty that first-time national candidates — many with smaller campaign operations and less money — have in preparing for the long haul of the campaign.
It also illustrates the advantage held by former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. He’s essentially been running for president for five years, and his team, smaller than in 2008 but larger than most of his 2012 opponents, has paid close attention to filing requirements in each state. He will appear on the Virginia ballot, along with Texas Rep. Ron Paul, who also has run a national campaign before."
The Tea Party Rebellion Is Here And In Virginia.
Ken (Old Texican)| 12.26.11 @ 10:51AM
There are...
ONLY two candidates with proven political accomplishments for conservatives.
Newt
and
Rick Perry.
Skin that cat any way you want! It is just the fact.
aware| 12.26.11 @ 3:56PM
Yep, Perry doubled Texas spending and doubled Texas debt. And Newt claims he "balanced" the budget in the '90s which was actually done by claiming Social Security surpluses, and claims "entitlement reform" which if that had happened we would not have the entitlement bomb of 80 trillion bucks hanging over our head.
Since "conservatism" seems to mean "my big government is better than your big government" these days, you're probably right.
We already have "liberalism" meaning the exact opposite of what it originally did, now we are on our way to the same fate for "conservatism".
chuck| 12.26.11 @ 8:15PM
Liar,
Newt reformed Welfare. Not Social Security, Medicare, nor Medicaid. Welfare. He never claimed to reform entitlements.
If you want to go after Newt, there is plenty of ammo out there without flat-out lying.
You are intellectual lazy, and a liar.
aware| 12.27.11 @ 6:02AM
Think so little shill?
See this: http://www.usgovernmentspendin.....rt_40.html
Notice how they have gone up, up , up since Newt's "reform'?
Maybe you need it from here: http://www.heritage.org/issues.....e-spending
Maybe you could fall back on that tired old excuse heard so often among conservatives, "it would be worse without our guy". Poor fellow, "reform" is how the political class deflects the short attention span of the drones while they are plundered.
Now I leave to the readers as to who is "intellectual lazy, and a liar." By the way, it's "intellectually" in proper usage.
chuck| 12.27.11 @ 8:45AM
1000 apologies for the typo.
Newt left the position of Speaker with a balanced budget. Welfare was reformed, putting in time-limits, and a life-time limit for recipients. Dennis Hastert, who followed Newt as Speaker, was a mushy moderate who allowed spending to explode, especially under Bush, who never had the guts to veto one of the huge spending bills. Newt left the Congress with the budget balanced, something that hadn't been done in a long time. Is it his fault what happened after he was gone? In this case it was definitely "worse without our guy".
I probably shouldn't have called you a liar, but you are definitely ignorant of the facts.
Paul will never get the nomination, because his foreign policy is terrible, further left than Obama's. Too bad, because I like his domestic agenda, $1 trillion is a good start.
And is "shill" the word of the week for Paulestinians?
Clint| 12.26.11 @ 1:23PM
Watch The Videeo RINO-CINO Kenny The Squirrel.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CWKTOCP45zY
The Tea Party Rebellion Is Here And In Iowa.
Occam's Tool| 12.26.11 @ 1:36PM
Weather in Des Moines for January 3rd prediction: 41 degrees high, 0% chance of precipitation.
It appears that the L-rd of Hosts wants to kick Ron Paul's ass!
aware| 12.26.11 @ 4:08PM
Whether Paul wins or comes in 2nd it's bad news for you. Either will increase support for Paul going forward.
If he makes it to Ga. I may even vote for him.
If that happens you can console yourself knowing "The Lord giveth and the Lord taketh away".
Occam's Tool| 12.27.11 @ 12:34PM
No, 2nd won't help---this is the race he's got to win. If he comes in 2nd it will be to a Romney machine that did not put full effort forward. Paul has money and organization here. If he loses, he's gone, baby!
Weather report in Des Moines for 1/3/11---clear skies, high 39 degrees.
Clint| 12.26.11 @ 1:45PM
" Ron Paul’s “Tea Party” money bomb meets $4 million goal
Ron Paul (R-TX), a candidate for the Republican presidential nomination, ended his “Tea Party” money bomb Sunday at midnight. Mr. Paul succeeded in meeting his fundraising goal of $4 million. The Paul campaign plans on using the grassroots donations for additional campaign activities in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. With the donation ticker still climbing, Mr. Paul has raised more than $4,048,000 as of 9am EDT Monday.'
The Tea Party Rebellion Is Here And In Iowa.
Java McPhearson| 12.27.11 @ 8:28PM
HEADLINES:
"Clear Skies over Iowa, God votes for Romney"