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The Spectacle Blog
Aaron David Miller, a veteran of Israeli-Arab diplomacy during the Clinton and Bush fils administrations, analyzes the relationship between President Obama and Prime Minister Netanyahu. Looking back at previous periods of US-Israeli tension during the Ford, Carter, and Bush père administrations, Miller writes:
But President Obama’s Bibi problem is different in several respects from his predecessors — a fact that all but guarantees that tensions with the Israelis on this issue are not going to subside anytime soon. The 2012 election has kept them in a box. Indeed, the president’s speech at the U.N. General Assembly last month notwithstanding — more a campaign speech than one that addressed the Israeli-Palestinian issue — if Obama is re-elected, buckle your seat belts. It’s going to be a wild ride with the Israelis.
Among the differences, Miller argues, are that previous administrations had a strategy during periods of friction with their Israeli counterparts, which led to diplomatically productive outcomes, and that previous administrations had established a modicum of trust with their Israeli counterparts; neither of those things are really true with Obama. And one more difference:
Finally, there’s the president himself, who clearly believes he knows best how to run the peace process. Obama doesn’t just have a Bibi problem, he’s got an Israel problem. Obama is not anti-Israel, but unlike his two predecessors — Bill Clinton and George W. Bush — he’s not in love with the idea of Israel.
He falls somewhere north of Jimmy Carter on the pro-Israel spectrum and south of George H.W. Bush.
I wonder if Obama might fall even further south on that spectrum in a second term. Consider that Dennis Ross (who Miller worked with during the Clinton years) is leaving the administration at the end of this year. Ross has provided a pro-Israel prospective within the administration, and has seemed isolated at times. This Politico item from last year gives a taste:
Sources say within the interagency process, White House Middle East strategist Dennis Ross is staking out a position that Washington needs to be sensitive to Netanyahu’s domestic political constraints including over the issue of building in East Jerusalem in order to not raise new Arab demands, while other officials including some aligned with Middle East peace envoy George Mitchell are arguing Washington needs to hold firm in pressing Netanyahu…
“He [Ross] seems to be far more sensitive to Netanyahu’s coalition politics than to U.S. interests,” one U.S. official told POLITICO Saturday. “And he doesn’t seem to understand that this has become bigger than Jerusalem but is rather about the credibility of this administration.”
What some saw as the suggestion of dual loyalties shows how heated the debate has become.
That the sort of people who might leak that anonymous quote might have unchecked influence in a second Obama term is not a comforting thought. The Washington Institute for Near East Policy (where Ross will return after leaving the administration) just released a paper by Robert Blackwill and Walter B. Slocombe on the many underappreciated strategic benefits of the alliance with Israel; here’s a good summary by Lee Smith of the findings and their significance given the authors’ worldviews. Blackwill and Slocombe conclude that “”U.S. national interests’ deserve equal billing with ‘shared values’ and ‘moral responsibility’ as fundamental rationales for the bilateral relationship.” If Obama is re-elected, will there be anyone left in his administration who understands that?
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More Blog Posts by John Tabin
http://spectator.org/blog/2011/11/17/if-obama-is-re-elected-relatio
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TruthSpeaker| 11.17.11 @ 5:33PM
If obama is re-elected we will have much worse problems than relations with Israel being impacted.If obama is re-elected you can kiss the USA goodbye. He will finish the transformation in those 'next 4 years' - and we will cease to be who we now are. We MUST NOT let that happen.
Mike W| 11.17.11 @ 10:16PM
Thank you for pointing this out. Certain bloggers at this site seem to believe that the interests of Israel are superior to any others, including those of the USA.
Personally, I don't give a damn about relations with Israel deteriorating under Obama. I worry about the USA deteriorating under Obama.
Jack in Wi| 11.18.11 @ 1:08AM
I agree Mike. let Israel take care of and support itself. No one in this country wants to die for Israel. The vast majority want all foreign aid to stop. The few people who comment on these Israel essays are just the same old usual suspects.
canuckistani| 11.18.11 @ 9:40AM
It's a false premise.
Since when did the relationship with Israel aid the US? I believe it is the other way around. It is Israel that left the US. Our dealings there is purely guilt-driven, nostalgic and not founded on real self-interested policy.
Perhaps a sobering gesture by the US people is in order to snap the Israelis back into reality that electing Bibi and permitting the idle orthos to have a say is probably a bad idea.
Nite| 11.17.11 @ 8:18PM
Obama only understands the Muslim viewpoint. He could care less about Israel. The Palestinians do NOT want to live in peace with Israel, but they want them dead and gone. Israel is now surrounded by her enemies thanks to the absolute meddling by an ignorant Obama. The muslims were given a place in TransJordan during partition. However, the Palestinans tried to kill the King of Jordan, so they were kicked out. They are nothing but trouble makers. If a Republican is NOT elected President, Israel will be in dire straits. I pray for them.
canuckistani| 11.18.11 @ 10:01AM
"Israel is now surrounded by her enemies thanks to the absolute meddling by an ignorant Obama"
Huh? Did I just miss something from the last 70 years? I think your memory has some gaps.
Syria has been a can kicked down the road for generations, now thanks to the Arab spring and Ghadafi's demise, Assad is on the ropes, the Arab League has grown a pair and even Turkey is talking smack to their historic allies. Jordan is also picking up the ball on this front. Obama's fault?
Israel's "surrounding" is their doing, period. Sharon's abandoning of Gaza was ill-advised and stupid (endorsed by Junior). The "free" elections in Gaza (endorsed by Junior) gave us a quasi-legitimate Hamas. The legitimization of Hezbullah in Lebanon after the 2006 Israeli folly and Junior's ineptitude with Hariri's killing is also revealing.
Similarly, Israel's alienation of their ONLY muslim friend, Turkey, is their own invention. Obama rightly recognizes that the Turkey project is FAR FAR more important to US interests than the meanderings of Bibi and the idle orthos sullying the Israeli discourse today.
If Israel wants to ensure their future, they better start recognizing the ME is changing, they are losing the numbers game, and the neocon infiltration of US levers of power is ending. Iran is their final bogeyman. Be wary.
John| 11.17.11 @ 8:44PM
If Obama elects, there will be a new Hamas state, that seeks to destroy Israel and America, mandating Sharia Laws instead of freedom and democracy.
Occam's Tool| 11.17.11 @ 8:45PM
Obama is a disaster for Western Civilization, not just the US. The US is the protector of the Civilized World.
I, for one, do not care to live in a country where I am a dhimmi. That may come to pass with an Obama II.
canuckistani| 11.18.11 @ 10:19AM
The US is not the protector of the civilized world. If it were, then we would be problem-free, n'est pas?
We have a military presence in 150 countries, yet our influence is waning. Explain.
Skippy| 11.18.11 @ 12:31PM
A presence without a pair is simply a target.
ROE's and White House timidity towards Islam goes a long way towards your explanation.
Here's an experiment.
Bring the boys home from all 150 nations and see what happens.
Next stop; caliphate and chaos.
canuckistani| 11.18.11 @ 1:38PM
I'll take that experiment. Result = nothing will happen.
The US will have to choose what is really important.
Europe has always been duplicitous. It's in their nature to manipulate issues, they've done it far longer than the US ever has. The Arabs have only one horse in the race - keep the money flowing and keep the unwashed away from the palace gates.
The Chinese have more fundamental issues to overcome - like food, water and production. Their foreign policy has been very xenophobic and self-centered. It is us that attempts to project an empire onto them.
I am not certain that a caliphate is really a threat to our way of life. The islamic way is fundamentally flawed in the premise that Allah will solve all problems - including the price of milk. It has never been demonstrated in history that the islamic way can sustain itself without infidel input and contact.
The elites within Islamic countries know this and yet be have this panic within us. I belive our way of life is the right way, thus it will persevere.
John| 11.17.11 @ 8:50PM
Those Palestinians are uneducated and haters, who are jealous about the miracle of the hard working Jews people in Israel, and those Arabs know that they do not have the talent and vision to compete with the state of Israel, so they instead seek revenge and violence, and never achieve peace and democracy. Those Arabs are real morons and trash.
canuckistani| 11.18.11 @ 10:04AM
The idle orthos are the epitome of the perfect being?
Get real.
Skippy| 11.18.11 @ 12:49PM
Idle orthos. Hmm...
Kinda like Germany's "eaters" in the 30's, eh?
They(the handicapped, mentally ill, etc.) produced nothing of material substance, so off to the camps.
The Germans may still have some war surplus ovens for sale for those idle orthos.
Check on ebay, Heinrich.
canuckistani| 11.18.11 @ 1:26PM
The idle orthos that are stirring the pot and driving Bibi to make flawed policy are not helping Israel. Their sad adherence to an old argument will undo the Israel project faster than any non-Jewish Semite incursion could ever do.
Israel is a bright light surrounded by Arab darkness - but the current course is fruitless and changes must occur.
BillF| 11.17.11 @ 8:50PM
Recall that Obama opposed the Palestinian effort to be recognized as a state by the UN, saying that the problem should be worked out through negotiations. This was a smart move to gain Jewish support for his reelection. If he is reelected, expect him to go before the UN and argue that the 1947 granting of statehood for Israel should be invalidated and that the problem between the Israelis and the Palestinians should be settled through negotiations.
David W| 11.17.11 @ 10:27PM
As Israel goes so goes the US. If Israel goes under, there will be a blood bath - a second and final Holocaust. This will embolden the muslim jihadists. If there are moderate muslims they will be swept aside and the blood will begin to spill across the middle east, africa, and europe. Egypt has 2 months maybe, and then there will be millions starving. The only way the rulers can stave off the angry crowd is to attack Israel. Turkey is close to having the same problem. Iran is a basket case. The nut jobs there may decide to end it all to ensure their place in Valhalla. The jackwagons we have leading Iraq and Afghanistan will probably join in.
I am beginning to believe that I will see nuclear weapons used against people in the not too distant future.
canuckistani| 11.18.11 @ 10:07AM
or not.
Do not underestimate the Iranian's capacity to be rational. It has fooled many a tribe for centuries.
The Arab spine is violent and unreasoned, but the Persian one is far more nuanced.
Skippy| 11.18.11 @ 12:51PM
Nuanced.
That explains 32 years of willing submission to the nuanced mullahs.
canuckistani| 11.18.11 @ 1:30PM
The mullahs, do you not understand the link between the elites the mullahs and the army? It is the single thread that binds it all together.
You disrupt one, the other two will react.
Any president would be wise to proceed carefully. We have no idea how deep the sunni-shi'a BS runs, as evidenced by our Iraq folly and inability to reconcile the PA's internacene conflicts. Saudi's and Bahrain's hysterical convulsion this year is also proof positive it is getting close to a nerve.
bobmontgomery| 11.17.11 @ 10:46PM
So what presidential aspirant is going to give a speech to Wall Street, telling them "This is on your heads, all of it. You put this man in office and now your days are numbered. What are you going to do about it?"
martin j smith| 11.18.11 @ 7:26AM
No kidding ?
But many things can also get worse so Tabin, stop throwing the Conservative base under the bus--lets focus on winning the election in 2012 why don't we ?
canuckistani| 11.18.11 @ 10:16AM
Let's see who is in line to replace BHO:
Willard: mormon, so no perverted third temple prophecy to worry about.
Cain: nein-nein-nein
Paul: ain't no Israel-firster
Perry: Third Templar hysteric
Newtie: his knee-jerk enthusiasm for zeroing-out all aid packages shows he has a "finger in the air" approach to policy. I would fear his equivocations far more than an Obama ambiguity.
If the US-Israel policy keeps you up at night, then Perry is your boy. Sleep well.
Ken (Old Texican)| 11.18.11 @ 10:24AM
Tabin,
are you practicing to be "The Master of Understatement"?
Rick Perry will make it absolutely clear to Iran... "You nuke Israel..all of you guys get to meet your virgins in hell."
PattyMor| 11.18.11 @ 3:16PM
After Obama gets done Islamifying the Middle East, the best we can hope for is that they start fighting each other. And the U.S. drills for its own oil and gas so we don't need them. Obama already said, he sides with the Muslims (and against God's people).
hook| 11.18.11 @ 10:24PM
To the anti Semites above. It is actually to our interests to support Israel as they are a strategic asset. If Israel disappeared tomorrow, the Islamists would be after Iberia.