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The Spectacle Blog
Right after Aaron Goldstein posted this, I saw the lastest Insider Advantage poll in which Mitt Romney fell to third place in South Carolina, behind Herman Cain and Newt Gingrich. Cain has been trouncing Romney in polls throughout the South, and perhaps this third place dynamic catches on. If Romney loses the nomination, the South will be a major reason, as it was in 2008.
But if Romney does win, it will be because a.) he gains considerable momentum before Southern states vote in large numbers and/or b.) he picks off Florida and through wins in the Northeast, Midwest, and West is able to isolate the Southern states that vote against him. Yet South Carolina can’t be written off entirely.
Romney has led in two of the last four polls in South Carolina, albeit by very narrow margins. He led there pretty consistently between Gingrich’s early slide and Rick Perry’s rise. South Carolina has rescued the frontrunner in every competitive GOP race since 1980. Momentum also makes a difference, and if Romney comes in on the heels of wins in Iowa and New Hampshire — the specific hypothetical we’re discussing here — he’d have lots of it.
Cain has been on the radio in South Carolina and is popular there. The state is also potential Gingrich country. I don’t consider a Romney win in South Carolina likely at all — he finished fourth there last time around — but neither is it inconceivable. More importantly, if Romney wins enough other early states he could potentially absorb a Palmetto loss. That’s why a Republican who wants to beat Romney will try to hold him to New Hampshire and Nevada at most.
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More Blog Posts by W. James Antle, III
http://spectator.org/blog/2011/11/12/re-romney-the-south
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Clint| 11.12.11 @ 9:48AM
" Mark Meckler, a co-founder of Tea Party Patriots, singled out Romney's Massachusetts health care plan as a primary reason why the national front-runner for the Republican nomination "clearly has difficulties" with members of the movement.
"He's attached to RomneyCare and has done a poor job of distancing himself from that," Meckler told reporters at a breakfast in Washington, D.C., hosted by the Christian Science Monitor. "I think he probably squandered an incredible opportunity and was probably the best guy to say, ‘I tried this and it failed,' and he has not done a good job of that. So he has taken positions that are contrary to what the average Tea Partier would take -- positions on man-made global warming, positions on energy efficiency. So I think he's in real trouble with the Tea Party base."
The Tea Party Rebellion Is Here.
Jack in Wi| 11.12.11 @ 12:04PM
Only 2 candidates come close to Obama in head to head polls. It has been the same 2 people for months. Romney is in first, a couple points behind Obama, and Ron Paul is second a couple points behind Romney. Herman Cain was in 3rd place, but he is dropping like a rock.
Any talk of Newt Gingrich or Cain ever getting elected President is insane. Cain has been outed as a dunce and liar. Gingrich, while intelligent, has huge baggage. I have detailed all this elsewhere. so I won't repeat it again.
It has been down to Ron Paul and Romney for weeks, if not since the beginning. They are the only 2 with the national following, organizations and money to win. Ron Paul has much more support among the young, Independents and Democrats. With out those votes no Republican can win.
I have suggested a series of debates between the only 2 viable people Ron and Willard.They should be civil, honest, and detailed. Then we have the primaries and an fair convention. Perhaps then we can somehow reunite this party and beat Obama.
The Wall Street Journal did a poll about third parties. The majority of Americans want a third party. They then asked which one they would vote for Obama, Romney, and Dr. Paul in a third party. The results were Obama 44%, Romney 32%, and Dr. Paul 18%. I truely believe that in a such a race Dr. Paul would come in either first or second place. Dr Paul will not run third party. He and his son Rand will soon be running as a team to restore America. I believe this ticket is the only chance we have for change that is needed in this country.
Their running slogan will be.
Ron and Rand for Peace, Prosperity, and Liberty.
penny| 11.12.11 @ 5:04PM
Ron Paul wants to lift the sanctions on IRAN's nuclear development and "just talk to them and make friends!" They won't hurt us! REALLY..... what an IDIOT! IRAN has a fanatical ruler who wants nothing more than to wipe out ISRAEL and the USA!!
Clint| 11.12.11 @ 8:14PM
Now,The Rest Of The Story.
Dr.Ron Paul Would Go To Congress And Get A Declaration Of War, If It Was Necessary.
The Tea Party Rebellion Is Here.
sjccoach| 11.12.11 @ 11:12AM
If Romney wins the nomination it will be a classic example of winning a battle and losing the war. He wil be trounced by Obama in the general election. Romney stands for nothing except the latest poll. We saw this last time with McCain and it will be the same in 2012,
Dan| 11.12.11 @ 11:29AM
Romney stands for himself, and his unashamed pursuit of high office and the personal glorification that eternally ensues.
That being said, the GOP base is a very Protestant base, and they're not much keen on tendering the nomination of the party to a Catholic or a Mormon. Even in the midst of a situation where there isn't much of a alternative to the Mormon, the base is out there desperately thrashing about looking for one, {id est the Cain boomlet, -------- was there a boomlet for a guy with so little qualification for the nomination or the office that he seeks...}.
Anthony M| 11.12.11 @ 11:35AM
Cain's 999 plan is a tax hike for over 80% of Americans and creates a brand new sales tax that the next Democratic administration will raise and raise and raise. For reasons I can't understand, some conservatives seem to idolize Cain, I don't know if it's some twisted kind of racism or a cult of personality or what, but if he wins the Republican nomination the party will disintegrate and the socialist wing of the Democrat party will get four more years. Cain is running on a platform of raising taxes, is this the Republican position?
Clint| 11.12.11 @ 11:40AM
" Judson Phillips, the head of Tea Party Nation, slammed Cain's response to accusations that he had sexually harassed a number of women during the 1990s.
Phillips said he still liked Cain personally but that his campaign's failure to prepare for the story even though they knew about it a week before it broke showed that he was not ready to be president.
"Ten days in, the Cain campaign is still stumbling around like newly castrated cattle. [Campaign manager] Mark Block should have been gone nine days ago. Cain should have a competent team in place by now as well as someone really good at crisis management. So far, it is not there," Phillips continued.
"If Cain cannot run his own campaign, how is he going to run the country? A few days ago, I would have been willing to accept Cain as the nominee. Cain was not my first choice but I could have easily supported him. No longer."
"Herman Cain has got to go," Judson said in an email to Tea Party Nation members. "I do not believe Cain’s accusers. There are too many questions about them. The allegations are not why Cain should leave. The campaign’s response is why he should now withdraw."
The Tea Party Rebellion Is Here.
John| 11.12.11 @ 2:05PM
Let's see, Romney & the South: No country for RINO. Romney and Cain will be dumped and be gone by January'2012. Gov Rick Perry will get the node and eventually will take over the WH. Obama will be another Jimi Carter.
Deb| 11.12.11 @ 5:23PM
Um, you are forgetting the Independent voters who are weary of the cringe worthy Perry. He reminds us way too much of Ms. Palin. Perry would not have a chance in a national election but it would be so much fun to watch!!!!
Casey Abell| 11.12.11 @ 2:06PM
The big news from the Insider Advantage poll is Cain sliding and Gingrich rising...
Insider Advantage 10/16: Cain 32, Romney 16, Gingrich 8.
Insider Advantage 11/8: Cain 26, Romney 16, Gingrich 19.
As Cain's support erodes further, I can see Gingrich catching him in this poll. He's already closed from 24 down to just 7 down in a few weeks, as Cain's support among Republican women implodes.
Meanwhile, Romney just plugs along at 16% support in the Insider Advantage poll, though he does better in other polls in SC. His RCP average is 21.5% in the state.
If I had to guess, I'd rate Gingrich a much better possibility than Cain to beat Romney in SC. But Romney has a real chance to take the state, only four down to the current leader Cain in the RCP average.
http://www.realclearpolitics.c.....html#polls
Clint| 11.12.11 @ 3:30PM
" A CBS News poll released Friday suggests that some women aren't satisfied with Cain's recent behavior: his support among Republican women has dropped 13 percent in the two weeks since the allegations against him surfaced.
In the survey, which was conducted by telephone from November 6-10, 15 percent of conservative women expressed support for Cain, down from 28 percent on October 25.
The candidate has also lost ground with conservatives, dropping from 30 percent to 23 percent support. And there has been some movement among Tea Party supporters as well; their support for Cain has declined from 32 percent to 19 percent. "
The Tea Party Rebellion Is Here.
Oldefarte| 11.12.11 @ 4:37PM
I'm requesting for the millionth time a discussion of Paul's economic plan regarding elimination of [think] five governmental departments to decrease the defecit/debt. Again, I favor moderation of his suggested term of implementation, but his plan [or some version of same] should be the template for dealing with our current financial woes. Get governmental spending under control, and the economy begins increasing correspondingly. With an elected Republican congress, this plan can be carried out by presidential command beginning 1/1/13. Additionally, the Democrats' socialistic governmental agenda of maintaining financial indigents within their non-payed for houses is only delaying the necessary real estate bottoming in order for that industry to begin turning around and increased sales of houses etc to begin. Again, this Paul plan needs to be discussed/disected and a public demand for its consideration made beginning now!!!!!!!!!
Teflon93| 11.12.11 @ 5:31PM
Southerners appreciate men who stand for something and don't serve their own ambition at the expense of principle.
Romney's never going to appeal to men of the South.
Chuck| 11.12.11 @ 8:54PM
A southerner named Bill Clinton didn't appreciate men or women who stood for something and served his own ambition at the expense of principle. Kind of goes against the grain what you wrote so Romney might have southern support after all.
gloria levy| 11.12.11 @ 10:22PM
I do not need to watch this debate, last debate was enough. They all had slogan and no substance. After a while I tought I was watching "CharlieBrown" Wo, wo, wo,. What kind of people are you ?. Some of you must have some brain, or your hatred for President Obama is clouding all you common snense. Please nominate Herman Cain. You do not believe that he sexually harrassed women, O.K., then nominate him for his knowledge: BEKY, BEKY BEKY STAN, PRO- LIFE, BUT EACH INDIVIDUAL SHALL DECIDE FOR HIMSELF, RIGHT OF RETURN? YES THE PALESTINIAN SHOULD HAVE THE RIGHT TO RETURN TO ISRAEL, NEOCONSERVATIVE? WHAT IS THAT. 999 PLAN TAKEN FROM A SIM CITY GAME, ALL BLACKS ARE BRAINWASHED, IT IS THE FOULT OF 11 MILLIONS FOR BEING UNEMPLOYED. We had one Idiot for 8 years and look what he did to thee country. If you love your country you will all vote for President Obama. After all he spent so little money not trillions like Bush and got Bin Laden. Little inteligence goes a long way. We have 11 millions unemployed, so lets close all government offices and departments and fire millions more. Lets not build or repair any bridges, keep everyone on ynemployment or better yet, do not pay anyone anything and let them eat each other.