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Six Thoughts on the GOP Presidential Race

By W. James Antle, III on 11.11.11 @ 3:09PM

1. Forget the dueling national polls. To have a realistic chance at winning the Republican nomination, Herman Cain needs to win Iowa, South Carolina, and Florida. Let's start with Iowa. If Cain wins, he's got a shot. If he loses but finishes in the top three, he'll likely stick around as the guy who wins some Southern primaries but doesn't get the nod (think Mike Huckabee). If he finishes outside the top three, his campaign is effectively finished. Then repeat these exact conditions in South Carolina and Florida.

2. That's probably the path to the nomination for most other non-Romneys too, though unless expectations change significantly someone like Newt Gingrich could probably survive losing Iowa as long as he finished in the top three. But back-to-back Mitt Romney wins in Iowa and New Hampshire would be very hard to overcome.

3. There is a real reluctance to nominate Romney -- I'm going to ignore my admonition about national polls long enough to point out that CBS has him statistically tied with undecided -- which is why he isn't yet inevitable. But a race in which Cain, Gingrich, Rick Perry, and Ron Paul all retain pockets of support favors him. So does his greater ability to campaign effectively in multiple states at the same time.

4. The people saying Tim Pawlenty should have stayed in the race are forgetting one practical consideration: his campaign was running out of money. Pawlenty was expected to be a top-tier candidate. He staffed his campaign like a top-tier candidate and his donors expected top-tier results. They were already having trouble paying their bills before Ames and weren't going to be able to raise enough money after he finished third there. Shedding that organization and subsisting on whatever invitations he could have gotten to televised debates probably wouldn't have kept him afloat long enough to spring Republicans from their Cain or Romney trap.

5. Jon Huntsman, who had the ability to self-finance, is the candidate who could have kept himself afloat long enough to take advantage of the Romney/Cain dilemma. But he blew it by deemphasizing his conservative record and running as a rich man's John McCain, circa 2000.

6. Paul could have his non-Romney moment with back-to-back top three finishes in Iowa and New Hampshire. The key will be avoiding disaster in South Carolina and Florida before another top three performance in Nevada. If Paul finishes outside the top three in both Iowa and New Hampshire, his campaign will only marginally outperform his 2008 showing.

View all comments (29) | Leave a comment

Clint| 11.11.11 @ 4:01PM

" Top Tier: Ron Paul Polls Third In Three Early Voting States

GOP presidential candidate Ron Paul is polling in third in the key early voting states of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, according to a new CNN/Time poll released yesterday."

The Tea Party Rebellion Is Here.

Clint| 11.11.11 @ 4:07PM

" Poll: Gingrich jumps to second place, Cain drops to third while Romney leads.

Newt Gingrich has jumped to second place and Herman Cain has dropped to third among Republican voters' preferences for which candidate should win the GOP presidential nomination, according to a new poll.

According to the McClatchy-Marist Poll, Mitt Romney leads the Republican pack with 23 percent. Gingrich is next with 19 percent, followed by Cain with 17 percent.

Ron Paul follows with 10 percent; the rest of the Republican field fails to hit double digits. The poll also found that a fairly substantial portion of voters — 17 percent — are still undecided on which candidate they want to win the nomination.

This the first significant drop for Cain since the reports broke about allegations that he sexually harassed a number of women while serving as president of the National Restaurant Association in the '90s. It also indicates that Gingrich is picking up some of those voters cooling to Cain."

Jack in Wi| 11.11.11 @ 4:34PM

Cain is finshed. Gingrich is unelectable because of his huge baggage. That leaves it to Ron Paul and Mitt Romney, as I have been saying for several weeks. Ron Paul and his son Rand will soon be campaigning together as the team to get America back on track. Their theme will be Ron and Rand for Peace and Prosperity.

Clint| 11.11.11 @ 4:47PM

Does This Mean When Mrs. Cain Gets Done with The Hermanator, He'll Be Burnt Toast ?

Just Askin'.

Mike| 11.11.11 @ 6:31PM

Baggage? Gingrich is pulling a freight train. I would take his being " born again" seriously if he exited politics.

Jack in Wi| 11.11.11 @ 6:48PM

The only thing I like about Newt is his recent conversion to the Catholic Church. I hope it changes him, but haven't see much evidence yet.

Jay| 11.11.11 @ 11:17PM

Gingrich was of course living and sleeping with Callista, while still married to Marianne, during the same period of his conversion.

Bob| 11.11.11 @ 4:10PM

Perry needs electrical shock therapy like Eagleton to snap him out of his stupor or whatever haze he's in otherwise it's Willard and his band of plague carrying rats. On the other hand I hear Michele finally knows the location of Lexington & Concord through months of 2nd grade remedial geography. If she can now locate Lake Superior on a Minnesota map she’s back in the race too.

Simon Templar| 11.11.11 @ 4:47PM

Well, she is in the same class with that genius who says there are 57 states in the US. He is helping her with her homework. Both of them are trying to study their geography while that class clown, the Biden boy, is making faces and telling bad racist jokes.

louisc| 11.11.11 @ 4:15PM

According to thegreenpapers.com, there are a total of 2286 (or 2287 according to their table) Republican delegates and it take 1144 to win the nomination Iowa has 28 delegates, New Hampshire 12, South Carolina 25, Florida 50, for a total of 114 assuming it's winner take all.

What has never been clear is why winning Iowa and New Hampshire or Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida is basically the end of the nominating process. Iowa and New Hampshire represent 1.7% of the total delegates and 3.4% of the amount necessary to win. In the 4 state scenario, 5% of the total delegates and 10% of the amount necessary to win.

If that is the case, the states that vote later are merely show votes. Why bother? The geniuses populating Iowa and New Hampshire (whose voters includes non-Republicans) have already made our selection for us.

rn| 11.12.11 @ 2:13AM

Louisc, thank you. THE ONLY SANE COMMENT ON AMERICAN SPECTATOR THIS ENTIRE WEEK.

When Iowa votes in its caucus (with only 52% of registered Republicans expected to vote on that wintry day), um, who cares?

There are more adults in my city than will go to the polls as Republicans to vote in Iowa and New Hampshire.

Why do we equate what those in Iowa, NH, SC, Nevada, and Florida prefer with what 80% of the rest of the country might be thinking?

A candidate could do well in those very few early states and then bomb in the remaining 80% of the country.

I don't live in any of the early states that go prior to Super Tuesday. AND I RESENT ALL THE MEDIA AND PUNDITS WHO TRY TO OVEREMPHASIZE JUST THE FIRST 12 STATES.

Besides -- what money does it require to just keep one's name on the ballot in EVERY STATE along the primary voting sequence from January thru to June?

If your campaign is broke, no sweat. Just YouTube, mass email, blog, and web post out of your garage or basement. Pawlenty could be doing that right now. Do live Skpe-like conference calls/videos with your supporters.

louisc| 11.12.11 @ 1:18PM

Though I've asked this on different fora, I have never got an answer. I thought someone would at least throw me a link and say "look at this you big dummy." I am starting to get the feeling that there is no reason other than the "elites" pushing this so-called thinking to get the McCains, Doles, and Romneys.

I do agree with your comments about an underfunded campaign. Whether one likes Cain or not, you can't argue with his approach: no debt and feeding off the land for free.

rn| 11.13.11 @ 1:01AM

louisc, I really do think that there are thousands of media people (to include cameramen, sound guys, photographers, web designers, and now bloggers) who wouldn't have a clue what to do with their lives (or how to make a buck) without Campaign _____ (fill in the blank with whatever year)

It would be so revealing to see how much money pours into Iowa and New Hampshire in just these last 9 months. We'll never see this honest appraisal of how these "races" so richly monetarily aid certain select cities, certain states (the ones at the front of the primaries cycle), certain industries.

And, as stated, this is where reporters (TV, radio, web, street beat, newsprint) earn their chops. Do good on the "Road to the White House 2012" and one might be in line to bump off a third or even second tier major news network dude who is getting a little too pudgy, a little too bald, or too long in the tooth.

Just observing how Nevada has forcefully elbowed itself to the front of the national pack in the itinerary tells us all we need to know about how this "campaign" and election cycle is far more about monetary gain than about selecting the best people to run the country.

louisc, keep beating the drum. Someone, someday is going to be important enough to call this charade the "game" that it is.

What is at stake: We are deciding the leader and leadership of the free world. It ought to be done completely differently.

martin j smith| 11.11.11 @ 4:19PM

There three kinds of Presidents we do not want people like: GWB --an inarticulate coward who did not stand up for himself. and was also dishonest about his policies. An Obama who is Un American, Anti-American and destructive and a John McCain who was at best very foolish in his conduct during the 2008 campaign and was a loser.

Looking at the above so far Perry would be out being in articulate, Paul would be out because he is Anti-American, Huntsman would be out because he would be another McCain, Romney would out because he is dishonest about his intentions, --I mean I can eliminate them all if I was so inclined. But one of them ( excluding Paul and Huntsman ) would be better than Obama--just getting rid of Obama would be a relief. I think the key is opening up Romney to discuss his policies more candidly and the same for Gingrich. Cain I would want to stress the idea that he has to take foreign affairs far more
seriously. While the dog and poney shows are something-they are a poor format to get to the heart of each candidates creds. Unless that is the idea. I am just one those voters that does not tolerate BS as it was given in the past. So--lets give especially those in the top tier real going over and then let the voters decide please.

Anthony M| 11.11.11 @ 5:18PM

I didn't know Ron Paul was anti-American, I thought he and Perry were actually the only candidates who served in the US military. I'm not saying the others are anti-American, it just sounds like a real oddball comment.

ImissBuckley31| 11.11.11 @ 7:41PM

He's a non-interventionist who uses language that appeals to liberals on foreign policy. Like it or not perception is politics, and as long as he continues to sound like a liberal, he'll be treated like one.

Clint| 11.11.11 @ 10:42PM

" George Will, "Today, we have a very different kind of foreign policy. It’s called Wilsonian. And the premise of the Bush Doctrine is that America must spread democracy, because our national security depends upon it. And America can spread democracy. It knows how. It can engage in national building. This is conservative or not?"

William F. Buckley, " It’s not at all conservative. It’s anything but conservative. It’s not conservative at all, inasmuch as conservatism doesn’t invite unnecessary challenges. It insists on coming to terms with the world as it is …”

The Tea Party Rebellion Is Here.

Simon Templar| 11.11.11 @ 4:43PM

Or maybe, just maybe the people take your conventional analysis and throw it away and elect who they want despite the money coffers, big campaign staffs, varying polls, pundits threats of unelectability, the pressure of the GOP establishment and the influence of hand picked states to make the call for the rest of us.

Interested Conservative| 11.11.11 @ 5:44PM

Scant mention of Newt here, aside from the ongoing "baggage" issues. At some point people simply ignore those - 15-20 years may be that point.

Though there remain concerns about Newt, as with the rest, nobody seems to have mentioned his age or health. What shape is he in? He looks good for a 68 year-old, and he is energetic, but I wonder.

Rep. Paul has two big issues as I see them - foreign policy and age. I cannot see a 77 year-old winning the POTUS. Too obvious lines of attack from the current POTUS.

Mitt wins so long has he has more than two competitors. The non-Mitt has to win Florida, and have enough resources to win two of the next four races after that. Then Mitt has troubles.

Clint| 11.12.11 @ 8:29AM

In May, when Gingrich sharply criticized Paul Ryan’s Medicare reform plan, FreedomWorks Chairman Dick Armey reminded National Review that Gingrich had been a serial offender:

Citing Gingrich’s support of Dede Scozzafava in the 2009 congressional election in New York’s 23rd district, his backing of Medicare Part D and TARP, and his commercial with Nancy Pelosi about climate change, Armey observes that “Newt entered the race with serious ground to make up with these 2 million Tea Party activists.”…

Brendan Steinhauser, director of Federal and State Campaigns for FreedomWorks, reports that the Tea Partiers he’s talked to are “irate” at Gingrich… “I never met a single Tea Party activist that supported Newt Gingrich for president,” he adds."

The Tea Party Rebellion Is Here.

John| 11.11.11 @ 6:49PM

Herman Cain is a moron. He is a "certified" RINO. He has no conservative mantle and needs to end his campaign. He is a loser, and I don't trust him at all. He is Obama's uncle.

martin j smith| 11.12.11 @ 8:23AM

A Candidate who blames the US for the 9/11 attack is Anti-American in my view. The reason for that is that that person ( Ron Paul ) if he were G-D forbid became President would put us in a weak position for our own national security. Now if a nation of 300 mill and the land mass of all of Western Europe and them some has its interests only in its borders then you are nuts. Trade,alliance ( I do believe in them ), economic agreements, all sorts of things. China and Russia which I believe are larger than us are our enemies
even though we are not directly (underline that word ) in conflict. They use client states don't you know. Ron Paul may ( or may not be brilliant in the economic area but his grasp of the world is a lack of or non-existant. And his stated ideas of making Love to Iran has been tried and failed. The EU failed along with Bush along with others.
So to pretend or to believe that we have the ability to make enemies love us is about as reasonable as those who assume mankind can control or effect climate. Neither are true. So, for a Presidential candidate to support polcies that put us at risk is certainly dangerous,against our interests and thus Anti-American. Anthony !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Clint| 11.12.11 @ 12:34PM

" Michael Scheuer, who was the head analyst at the CIA’s bin Laden unit, Alec Station, and authored the books Through Our Enemies Eyes and Imperial Hubris, said “I thought Mr. Paul captured it the other night exactly correctly. This war is dangerous to America because it’s based, not on gender equality, as Mr. Giuliani suggested, or any other kind of freedom, but simply because of what we do in the Islamic World â€“ because ‘we’re over there,’ basically, as Mr. Paul said in the debate.”

Scheuer also agreed with Dr. Paul’s statement in the debate that the war in Iraq was a diversion from capturing or killing Osama bin Laden and that bin Laden was “delighted” that the U.S. is occupying Iraq as it has become a training ground and recruiting tool for new jihadists joining the movement."

The Tea Party Rebellion Is Here.

Solo| 11.12.11 @ 10:15AM

What frustrates me--and more in this election cycle than in the past--is that the media, with their polling fetish, have already "decided" that Romney is going to be the republican candidate.

Hell....not a single vote has yet to be cast!

Why don't we just take a media Poll and declare the winner now, thus saving us the suspense and aggravation of the nomination process?

Oh...and while we're at it;
I suggest that we Nuke Iowa and New Hampshire and put them out of our misery.

I'm sick and damned tired of having our candidates decided by Tractor-Riding Welfare Queens and North East liberals.

RND| 11.12.11 @ 11:07AM

Solo, you as the right questions.

"Why don't we just take a media Poll and declare a winner now?"

You are right, this would be supremely more efficient.

My opinion: This boondawgle bonanza that started already in January of this year is the hugely significant $MONEY$ to the tune of 10's of millions spent every week in all the early states AND by the ever salivating, nonsensical blonde bimbo commenary 24 news/media.

Can even your favorite radio talk show host make it for more than 30 minutes without referring in big ways to Campaign 2012? (And it has been this way since January of this year already)

The restaurant and hotel industry in all the early states gets a significant economic boost from all of this. Ditto all the newspapers.

The NH primary is probably the largest (over the 6 months leading up to it) "stimulous package" in all of Old New England.

The newspaper the Manchester Union Leader would go out of business if there was no NH primary with all the various candidate HQs nearby generating daily stories, buzz, gossip, etc. Same, same for all those Iowa newspapers.

So you don't kill the golden goose; you just let the farce proceed.

All of this is meaningless/others have already decided for you. It just rakes in a lot of cash for a lot of folk. And it helps build careers for campaigners (e.g. David Axelrod, Carville), speechwriters, photographers, and media types.

martin j smith| 11.12.11 @ 10:28AM

Solo I totally agree with you. I dismiss the reasoning of many pundits on this site. But what the heck we have Free Speech .

Clint| 11.12.11 @ 12:39PM

Dr.Ron Paul's Foreign Policy Advisor Michael Scheuer, Former CIA Chief of The bin Laden Unit,

On Iran, The President should,

4.) Speak to the American people and tell them to expect to be brutally propagandized by U.S. citizen Israel-Firsters through AIPAC, their ubiquitous media shills, and the men and women they own in the U.S. Congress and federal bureaucracy. Urge Americans to ignore this effort by U.S. Israel-Firsters to get them to send their soldier-children to fight in a religious war in which the U.S. has no genuine national interest at stake, and in which U.S. participation would further bankrupt the country, require the reintroduction of conscription, and put America at war with all of the Muslim world -- Shia and Sunni -- for the foreseeable future."

The Tea Party Rebellion Is Here.

Zak Klemmer| 11.12.11 @ 3:09PM

I consider myself a “movement” conservative since I walked precincts for Barry Goldwater in 1964 and for Reagan in 1966. I won’t handicap the conservative Republicans running for President now and have never cared to in the past. It misses the point entirely since my main concerns are to re-establish the free market in our country and defend our individual rights guaranteed under our constitution.
I won’t be voting for either Romney or Perry. The remaining members of the field are individually under consideration; in order of preference:
Ron Paul, who I voted for in 1988 & 2008.
Michelle Bachmann
Herman Cain
Newt Gingrich
What do you call a Frenchman who is wearing sandals?
Philippe Flop, unless he is a Republican then it’s Mitt Romney.

Niniane| 11.12.11 @ 6:09PM

Perry is definitely out with his numerous flubs and occasional brain-freezes, IMO. Whoever wins the nomination better be an excellent debater when going up against Obama. And I say that only because Obama has the information from the inside track of the WH which no candidates have access to. And they also have to watch out for the destruction of the Chicago machine.