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Writing Off the GOP Field

By Joseph Lawler on 11.8.11 @ 11:53AM

This morning RedState's Erick Erickson penned a lengthy takedown of Mitt Romney, arguing that Romney will win the primary and then lose to Barack Obama, killing off conservatism in the meantime.

Erickson's piece is recommended not because he's supposed to be taken as some kind authority on what constitutes conservatives, but because he consolidates almost all of the key datapoints on Romney's shortcomings into one post. He also notes that the only reason Romney looks poised to take the nomination is that "the other candidates, right now, are a pretty pathetic lot."

Relatedly -- or not? -- Marc Thiessen's column on Sen. Jim DeMint's decision not to endorse anyone in the primary included a number of interesting points about DeMint's strategy for 2012. DeMint claims that he is indifferent between the presidential candidates, which is to say none of them appeals to him in a special way (remember that he endorsed Romney in 2008, which he won't do this time). So his plan for being prepared for the next Congress is to focus on electing conservatives in the Senate: "I've got to keep my focus on electing conservatives to the Senate who are going to come in here and help us change the spending culture and help our new president turn the country around." DeMint's silence on the presidential race is significant, because his endorsement alone, without any financial or other help attached, is valuable, especially in South Carolina. Endorsing a candidate wouldn't distract him from electing conservative senators.

In other words, the best thing that can be said of Romney is that, if he wins the general election, he'll likely have a Republican Congress pushing him around. The more Tea Party-types there are in the House and Senate, the better a President Romney looks -- something that's true of President Obama as well. Better to just write the presidency off, and get to work on other elections?

View all comments (17) | Leave a comment

Clint| 11.8.11 @ 12:37PM

We Are Being Set Up By RINO-CINO Flunkie Stooges For The Ruling Elites' Frontman Mittens Romney.

These Are The RINO-CINO Flunkie Stooges Who Gave Us The Serial Traitor To Conservatism, John McCain Of McCain-Feingold, McCain-Kennedy,McCain-Lieberman,Gang Of 14, Opposing Bush Tax Cuts Of 2001 & 2003,TARP.

Now They Are Trying To Give Us RomneyCare,TARP, Cynical Flip-Flops On Abortion, Gays, Refuses to Sign Pro-Life Pledge, Illegal Immigrants, "Little Chain Saw Al" At Bain, Crony Capitalism Campaign Money Trail.....

The Tea Party Rebellion Is Here.

c. j. acworth| 11.8.11 @ 1:20PM

No, we don't just write off the top job and focus on congress. We nominate the most conservative candidate we can and work like hell to elect him/her. Has Mr. Lawler forgotten about the Supreme Court replacements that will surely be needed during the next term?

Dai Alanye| 11.8.11 @ 2:17PM

Never mind Romney, let's talk about Erickson.

I want to say how much I admire Mr Erick E (for expert) Erickson, because unlike some self-proclaimed pundits he keeps his ego under control. You'll never see or hear Erickson putting down a whole bunch of candidates. He always shows the proper measure of humility, and for a guy as smart as he lets on, that's little short of amazing.

What's more, he's always right - always. I know this to be true because he's let us know on numerous occasions. Yessiree, there's no doubt about it, for he's told us so himself.

So if Erickson expresses an opinion - on any subject whatsoever, including whom I should vote for - that's good enough for me.

SpiralArchitect| 11.8.11 @ 6:04PM

Agreed.

Rick V.| 11.8.11 @ 2:29PM

Regardless of Eickson's oppinion - or anyone else's - Mitt will win the nomination and lose the election to President "We can't wait". The best we can hope for is a Republican majority in the House and Senate. And I'm no great fan of the Republicans in general (I mean, have these guys been asleep for the past 20 years?) it's just that a few of them have seen the light lately and we'll need them to keep Obama/Pelosi/Reid/Holder/Geithner in check. This wasn't the first election that I had to hold my nose while voting Republican and it won't be the last.

Interested Conservative| 11.8.11 @ 2:31PM

This is all still very premature. Until we see general polls with Romney above 25%, he's still stuck with dominating the Eastern/establishment/moderate wing of the GOP and precious little other support. Meanwhile, it's to his advantage to have 3 or 4 or 5 others splitting the rest of the field. Hence, this article and these concerns.

Mitt probably loses in a 3-person GOP field (2008 anyone?) and almost certainly loses the 2-person race.

If anything, Mitt's money and organization could bull him through the process and convention (which is when the establishment really takes over), but there's nothing like a sound defeat or four along the way to upset all that.

I expect Perry and Gingrich to be the last two standing with Mitt, largely due to money and frugal perserverance respectively. If Cain, Bachman and Santorum all carry on they'll probably start nibbling into each others numbers. Does anyone think Rep. Paul will either gain or lose any support from his longstanding levels?

I guess that leaves a huge opportunity for Gov. Huntsman to step in as the clean-up man and save the party. God help us all.

Clint| 11.8.11 @ 4:08PM

"Top Tier: Ron Paul Polls Third In Three Early Voting States

GOP presidential candidate Ron Paul is polling in third in the key early voting states of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, according to a new CNN/Time poll released yesterday.

The Texas Congressman attracted 12% in telephone polls with potential voters in all three states."

The Tea Party Rebellion Is Here.

SpiralArchitect| 11.8.11 @ 6:05PM

MLK had a dream too... he got shot for it. :/

Interested Conservative| 11.8.11 @ 6:19PM

To elaborate - Rep. Paul is going to get his 6% to 12% depending on the state, the poll, the day of the week and the weather.

Gov. Romney cannot get above 25%, and everyone else has bounced from 1% to 2nd place behind Romney, perhaps Santorum excepted - he had a teeny showing in Ames, and not much since.

Rep. Paul won't be the nominee, but his domestic policies and how the ultimate candidate accommodates them is vital.

Ross Kaminsky| 11.8.11 @ 2:44PM

We can't write off the presidency. And Romney, while not great, has not yet proven worthy of being written off. Even the WSJ is slightly warming up, based on their article today. Still, Romney leaves a lot of room for improvement.

Interested Conservative| 11.8.11 @ 6:15PM

I just cannot shake the sense that Gov. Romney is all that stands between the GOP losing NY and Mass. by 10%, instead of losing them 20%.

Does it matter anywhere else?

Dai Alanye| 11.8.11 @ 2:53PM

I will vote for anyone in opposition to Obama, up to and including Joe Biden. Because America is a terrible thing to waste.

Bill| 11.8.11 @ 3:13PM

With Herman Cain is at the top of the GOP, and Gov. Rick Perry is at the fourth place, I worry about the GOP chances to winning back the WH, Obama might sneak through the mud and his reign of horror will continue for another four years. Cain is a disaster and Rick Perry will be the best candidate to defeat Obama.

Juan Jose Morales-Castillo| 11.8.11 @ 5:00PM

Reelect the incompetent incumbent because the alternative could be worse: did that argument work in 1980?

Occam's Tool| 11.8.11 @ 5:44PM

Reagan was one of the greatest Presidents in US history, Juan. Here we have a race between one of the four worst Presidents in US history (no, not Harding---the other three are Carter, Hoover, and Buchanan---3 Dems, one Republican), and a mediocre challenger, whoever it is on the Republican side.