Full disclosure…I won’t pretend to have an answer to this
protracted Greek fiasco. I’m not an economist, and I try not to
comment on matters outside of my professional acumen. But, I’ve
also rarely witnessed such a colossal train-wreck unfolding, as if
in slow motion, before our very eyes. Simultaneously, Greece’s
European identity and the future profile of the European Union hang
in the balance of this looming tragedy, worthy of Euripides.
Before surrendering
the drachma — the
world’s oldest currency — in favor of the stabilizing
partnership of an identical Euro-note, Greece existed at the edge
of the European silhouette.
Much like Britain, Spain or Turkey, something separated Greece from
the continental experience. Cue the past eighteen months, and a
ubiquitous protest movement that has contorted domestic identity.
Meanwhile, in Paris and Berlin, it’s been difficult to ignore the
latest “sick, old man of
Europe.”
This is a country that lives on the edge of perpetual
default…a former governorate of the Ottomans and an occupied
province of National Socialism during the Second World War. Its
best year are literally confined to ancient history, when Alexander
cried tears on the edge of civilization with no more worlds to
conquer, and Aristotle and Plato cut the trail of our intellectual
horizons. Of course, the Greek city state of Athens, led by
Cleisthenes - “the father of democracy” - established what is
generally considered the first democracy in 507 BCE.
So, perhaps there was some poetic justice to President
Papandreou’s decision to
turn over the solvency of the euro zone to a broad-based, social
plebiscite. Of course, a choice to accept a reduction of the
country’s debt by more than €100 billion while offering
another €130 billion in life support loans doesn’t seem like
much of a choice at all. That’s the best deal they’re going to
get…but it’s not one the Greek people will have to make for
themselves. For better or worse, the Greek leader has decided
to scrap the
risky bailout referendum.
That doesn’t mean Papandreou’s party will survive intact. Again,
I repeat: I’m not an expert on the Greek experience. I’m
considerably more comfortably discussing Thucydides than PASOK’s
race to the bottom of social welfare and adamant opposition to
austerity. However, I am a comparativist by trade and I can
recognize a triangular threat when I see one. His nation is facing
economic collapse, continental Europe is beyond livid and his party
— not to mention his parliamentary coalition — is about to
combust. Something tells me this is one premiere who
won’t survive
snap elections when the ruling bloc rents apart at the
seams.
Even as I type this post, an emergency cabinet session is
underway, amid speculation that Panandreou’s fellow Socialists will
call on him to resign. Meanwhile, President Barak Obama joined
world leaders in the south of France for the G-20 summit — no
doubt they’re finding the weather a little gloomy…undoubtedly
overshadowed by this Greek crisis.
Regardless of whether Greece is spoon-fed this bailout, the euro
zones troubled sovereign borrowers remain an issue, the banks
remain fragile and the governance of their currency is still
tenuous. Drastic times, call for drastic measures.
You know what — I’ve got very little skin in this game. I say
let it ride. Let Greece default. Eject them from the
Eurozone. Write off the debt. Monetize the losses. Move
on.
Let the Greeks reclaim the drachma — olive oil will get cheap,
baklava even cheaper. Next year around this time, we’ll all be
vacationing off Crete because your American dollars will be trading
at a very favorable ratio to statues from the Parthenon.
It could be worse, right? I think we’d all benefit from
this case study in parsimony. And I’ll see you in the Aegean.
Occam's Tool| 11.3.11 @ 4:42PM
Greece's birthrate per woman is 1.38. It's workforce is aging and contracting, and its social welfare net cannot be supported. It has 9.2 births and 10.7 deaths per 1000 population. Its median age of its women is 43.6 years; its median age for men is 41.4 years.
It's economy is deader than a doornail: the unemployment rate of youths aged 15-24 is 25.8 %.
They can do what they want with the drachma---I believe Mr. Reid is correct in that it will make visiting Greece cheaper. But with Islamists to the immediate South, I doubt it will be SAFER.
Another country that will be Islamic in 2030. Not because of the 1.3 percent of current Muslims, but because it will fall into Turkey's orbit because it will be too old and feeble to take care of itself.
Turkey's median age---28.5 years. Birthrate---2.15 births per woman. 17.93 births versus 6.1 deaths per 1,000 population.
Get your Acropolis viewings in now. By 2030, buh-bye.
MarkJ| 11.3.11 @ 5:09PM
Well, the GOOD news is that any future demands by the Greeks for the British Museum to return the Elgin Marbles will fall on deaf ears. ;)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elgin_Marbles