Having read Quin Hillyer’s suggestion that
Texas Gov. Rick Perry “do a Pawlenty” and John Tabin’s lament
about the
weakness of the Republican presidential field, I feel compelled
to inject some facts into the discussion.
First: Perry came into October with about $15 million
in the bank, so whatever he does, Perry will not “do a
Pawlenty.” Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, a weak candidate all
along, staked everything on winning the Iowa GOP Straw Poll at
Ames, where he
finished a poor third behind Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann
and Texas Rep. Ron Paul. By that time, T-Paw was heavily in debt,
his top staffers having postponed payment of their salaries for
weeks in hope that a win at Ames would retrieve their fortunes.
Pawlenty, who had $2 million cash on hand as of July 1, was about
$450,000 in
the red (and with zero prospects of revival) by the time he
pulled
the plug Aug. 14.
With $15 million, Perry isn’t going to be quitting anytime soon,
despite his abysmal poll numbers (sixth in
Iowa, seventh in
New Hampshire, fifth in
Nevada, a weak third in the
RCP national average). Even if his “burn rate” is $4 million a
month, Perry will still be in the field through the first five
campaign events, ending Feb. 4 with the Nevada caucuses. It seems
unlikely at this point that Perry can come back to beat
former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney for the nomination but
…
“At this point” is the key phrase there, you see? And that’s why
I’m dubious about Tabin’s perception of a hopelessly flawed GOP
field, reflecting
Jennifer Rubin’s summary of Tuesday’s events, which in turn
cites the assessments of
David Freddoso at the
Examiner and
Jeff Anderson of the Weekly Standard. Most caucus and
primary voters in the early states aren’t political junkies and
therefore aren’t following the campaign with the intensity of focus
necessary to pick up all these gaffes and stumbles as meaningful
events. And are these really such cataclysmic disasters?
Rubin says “Herman Cain jumped the shark with a bizarre ad
featuring his smoking campaign manager.” Well, the
YouTube video featuring Mark Block (filmed, BTW, in front of
the Venetian Hotel in Las Vegas) has been viewed about 650,000
times and gotten airings on network TV. Did everyone who watched it
have the same negative reaction as Rubin and other commentators?
Are voters in Iowa and New Hampshire fleeing the Cain campaign in
droves as a result? Or is all this uproar over the YouTube video
just free publicity for the Cain campaign?
We are now 69 days from the Jan. 3 Iowa caucuses. Go back 69
days to Aug. 18 — five days after Perry entered the field, and
four days after Pawlenty quit — and we find the RCP average had
Romney at 20.2%, Perry at 18.4%, Bachmann at 9.6%, Paul at 8.8% and
Cain at 5%, in a tie for fifth with former House Speaker Newt
Gingrich.
No one at that point, 69 days ago, predicted that when Oct. 26
arrived,
Cain would be leading Romney 25.9% to 24.9% in the RCP average.
If Cain can manage to keep that up another 69 days, and wins the
Iowa caucuses (where he’s
leading by substantial margins in recent polls), will he still
be viewed as “not up to the task,” to borrow
Karl Rove’s phrase?
Victory tends to become its own argument, and whoever emerges
ahead of the GOP pack after the first five delegate-selection
events — Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Florida and Nevada
— will not be a “weak” candidate.
