The Spectacle Blog
Having read Quin Hillyer’s suggestion that Texas Gov. Rick Perry “do a Pawlenty” and John Tabin’s lament about the weakness of the Republican presidential field, I feel compelled to inject some facts into the discussion.
First: Perry came into October with about $15 million in the bank, so whatever he does, Perry will not “do a Pawlenty.” Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, a weak candidate all along, staked everything on winning the Iowa GOP Straw Poll at Ames, where he finished a poor third behind Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann and Texas Rep. Ron Paul. By that time, T-Paw was heavily in debt, his top staffers having postponed payment of their salaries for weeks in hope that a win at Ames would retrieve their fortunes. Pawlenty, who had $2 million cash on hand as of July 1, was about $450,000 in the red (and with zero prospects of revival) by the time he pulled the plug Aug. 14.
With $15 million, Perry isn’t going to be quitting anytime soon, despite his abysmal poll numbers (sixth in Iowa, seventh in New Hampshire, fifth in Nevada, a weak third in the RCP national average). Even if his “burn rate” is $4 million a month, Perry will still be in the field through the first five campaign events, ending Feb. 4 with the Nevada caucuses. It seems unlikely at this point that Perry can come back to beat former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney for the nomination but …
“At this point” is the key phrase there, you see? And that’s why I’m dubious about Tabin’s perception of a hopelessly flawed GOP field, reflecting Jennifer Rubin’s summary of Tuesday’s events, which in turn cites the assessments of David Freddoso at the Examiner and Jeff Anderson of the Weekly Standard. Most caucus and primary voters in the early states aren’t political junkies and therefore aren’t following the campaign with the intensity of focus necessary to pick up all these gaffes and stumbles as meaningful events. And are these really such cataclysmic disasters?
Rubin says “Herman Cain jumped the shark with a bizarre ad featuring his smoking campaign manager.” Well, the YouTube video featuring Mark Block (filmed, BTW, in front of the Venetian Hotel in Las Vegas) has been viewed about 650,000 times and gotten airings on network TV. Did everyone who watched it have the same negative reaction as Rubin and other commentators? Are voters in Iowa and New Hampshire fleeing the Cain campaign in droves as a result? Or is all this uproar over the YouTube video just free publicity for the Cain campaign?
We are now 69 days from the Jan. 3 Iowa caucuses. Go back 69 days to Aug. 18 — five days after Perry entered the field, and four days after Pawlenty quit — and we find the RCP average had Romney at 20.2%, Perry at 18.4%, Bachmann at 9.6%, Paul at 8.8% and Cain at 5%, in a tie for fifth with former House Speaker Newt Gingrich.
No one at that point, 69 days ago, predicted that when Oct. 26 arrived, Cain would be leading Romney 25.9% to 24.9% in the RCP average. If Cain can manage to keep that up another 69 days, and wins the Iowa caucuses (where he’s leading by substantial margins in recent polls), will he still be viewed as “not up to the task,” to borrow Karl Rove’s phrase?
Victory tends to become its own argument, and whoever emerges ahead of the GOP pack after the first five delegate-selection events — Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Florida and Nevada — will not be a “weak” candidate.
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Clint| 10.26.11 @ 6:28PM
The following candidates refused to sign The SBA Pro-Life Pledge: Herman Cain, Gov. Jon Huntsman, Gov. Gary Johnson, Gov. Mitt Romney."
http://www.sba-list.org/2012pledge
PatriotGal2257| 10.26.11 @ 7:19PM
OK, this is beyond irritating that some in the conservative blogosphere are acting like the MSM by tearing down certain GOP presidential candidates by not so subtly urging them to quit. Why don't they come right out and say who they support? I bet it's Romney, but who knows? Maybe secretly they want Obama for another four years. Quit with the inevitability schtick, already. It's way past its sell-by date.
Dave| 10.26.11 @ 9:55PM
The problem with this post is that there is no logical way that anyone not named Romney in the field can win the nomination. The rest all have one or more major impediments to the nomination. The fact that Perry can't speak renders him hopeless. The fact that Cain puts his foot in his mouth whenever he speaks does the same for him. The fact that Newt is, well, Newt finishes him off as well. We can go down the list and check off each candidate for different reasons. Romney wins this thing unless Perry drops out and gives all of his organization to someone else who can win. I.e., Bobby Jindal.
M.McC| 10.26.11 @ 10:15PM
So wrong. So many ways. Jindal can't get in = filing deadlines. Perry will ditch debates. Cain has charm and smarts. Don't underestimate Cain. Newt is consistent. And smart. The race is far from over.
Dave| 10.26.11 @ 10:51PM
Somehow I doubt that Perry's ditching of the debates is his golden ticket to the presidency.
M.McC| 10.27.11 @ 1:25AM
The debates are BS. He needs to convince people. Golden ticket no. Game changer maybe. Cain and Newt have better chances anyway.
RJ| 10.26.11 @ 10:24PM
I think it is inevitable that Romney won't win the GOP Presidential nomination. The voters have seen him for 4 years and don't like him. The nominee will be someone else.
M.McC| 10.27.11 @ 1:27AM
They're lying to the pollsters then. Heh
RJ| 10.27.11 @ 2:06AM
No, the polls probably are accurate but fluid. I just think that Romney has gone just about as high as he can, maxing out at 25-30%, and that it is more likely that the last remaining candidate opposing Romney will pass him by. Time will tell.
WL| 10.27.11 @ 12:52PM
Why won't ANYONE see the obvious here...
I know why the columnists don't see it...(because this is playing out exactly how they want it too)
But you Commenters???
Do you not see the problem here?
Here it is:
It is pretty common knowledge that Romney has picked up just about all of the support he is going to.
Now...R.PAUL has a respectable 10-12% Everywhere...Where you you think his support would go if he dropped out...
Same for Bachman
Same for Perry
Same for Cain
Same for Santorum
Etc...
The ONLY ONE whose support would go to Romney would be Huntsman's whopping 1%...
IF WE FIELD 5 CANDIDATES (from the Conservative/Libertarian) wing of the party LONG ENOUGH for Mr. 25% Romney to get the nomination...we have a problem much deeper than just Obama vs. McCain and the Repubics Vs. Democrats Kabuke theatres...
FOLKS, these conservatives might just be Good Cop Phonies in a Good Cop /Bad Cop game between our Own Establishment and "Conservative" wings...I doubt it....but WE NEED some major changes if our CONSERVATIVE and LIBERTARIAN standard bearers keep each others support from each other past the first state or so ONLY...
We will need new leaders...
Not just new leadership of the Repubs overall...
BUT OUR CONSERVATIVE STALWARTS as WELL!!!!
Ken (Old Texican)| 10.27.11 @ 6:56AM
Please read:
http://www.americanthinker.com.....omney.html
M.McC| 10.27.11 @ 11:51AM
Elections are Darwinian. The weak go down like wounded antelopes.
JimH| 10.27.11 @ 8:06AM
Maybe Cain was trying to appeal to the X Files crowd with his own smoking man. The truth is out there.
PattyMor| 10.27.11 @ 8:18AM
Cain stirred up the media and got them all talking and debating the commerical. Its a defy the concensus, anti-establishment type of statement. And it strikes to the heart of freedom. Do we have it or will be let the noddering nabobs (legislators with laws) take away whatever freedoms we have left.
Gotta love the Hermanator!!
NotPropagandized| 10.27.11 @ 2:30PM
Perry hit Romney back. But no one was paying attention to Romney's initial cheap-shots on immigration because, not only was Perry inartfully fumbling his words, but Bachmann and Santorum were shrieking at the same time. Romney fully knew his characterization of Perry's excellent record on border security was a TOTAL LIE, but he pressed it with the TxLegislature's faux-evidence on in-state tuition for children of illegals. Therein is the predicate.
Now, using a lame illegal-alien-lawncrew story, Perry slimed himself to show Romney for what he is when he gasped: "You can't have any illegals working on our property. I'm running for office, for pete's sake, we can't have illegals."
or "Anderson! Help me!"
The point is that Perry will make sure Romney pays and is revealed for the political opportunist that he is. More importantly, all of Perry's backer's, financial and endorsers, fully support the payback that Romney will get up to and into the caucuses and primaries.
Romney/Bachmann/Santorum may have successfully knocked out the candidate who many argue would have been the most successful USPresident, but they likely sealed their own fate.
Love watching this unfold and see those receive their comeuppance that deserve it the most.
Earle Belle| 10.27.11 @ 5:44PM
Does Herman Cain Think Newt Gingrich is Stupid?
http://www.ronpaul2012.com/201.....is-stupid/
Pizza Man Herman Cain Will Not Deliver!
http://www.revolutionpac.com/2.....t-deliver/
Earle Belle| 10.27.11 @ 5:45PM
“Plastic Men” Exposes Establishment Candidates:
http://www.revolutionpac.com/2.....ctober-18/
Huffington Post Provides Proof That Herman Cain Lied At The GOP Debate
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/.....06228.html
Earle Belle| 10.27.11 @ 5:49PM
Cain Also Thinks the Fed Missing $9 Trillion Is Unimportant
Herman Cain made it clear at the recent Bloomberg Debate in his answer to Ron Paul’s question about auditing the Federal Reserve that he simply doesn’t think it’s important.
In 2009, the Federal Reserve admitted it could not account for $9 trillion. This is not a misprint. It wasn’t $9 million.
Not $9 billion.
$9 TRILLION.
Does it have to get to $999 trillion, Mr. Cain, before you think the Federal Reserve issue is important?
http://campaign2012.washington.....xpayer-arm
Cain’s Favorite Fed Chairman is: “Print More Money”
In the Bloomberg GOP Debate, Herman Cain said that Alan Greenspan was his favorite Federal Reserve Chairman. That the TARP-supporting, financial crisis-denying Cain would think Greenspan had a good head for economics should be no surprise, since he shows himself to speak like a true insider does.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?f.....ZUpZ_onC2k
Earle Belle| 10.27.11 @ 5:51PM
Comparing the Candidates on TARP
Let’s face it: The Cookie Monster is as good, if not better, than most journalists in highlighting this crucially important distinction between Ron Paul and Barack Obama, Herman Cain and Mitt Romney concerning TARP:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?f.....2EqhZND1_I
"ObamaCare Advisers Were Also RomneyCare Advisers" Writes James Antle at The American Spectator:
“Records show that Mitt Romney aides met a dozen times with the White House to discuss health care reform, according to reports that are sure to refocus attention on the similarities between Obamacare and Romneycare. The Massachusetts health care plan Romney signed into law was an inspiration for the federal legislation, signed by Barack Obama, that the Republican frontrunner has pledged to have repealed.
It’s worth noting that at least two of the aides, Jon Gruber and John McDonough, are liberal Democrats, the latter a former aide to the late Sen. Ted Kennedy. The Romney campaign has downplayed Gruber’s role in crafting the Massachusetts law. These facts could either be mitigating, since it isn’t shocking a Kennedy aide would visit the Obama White House, or one could argue it revealed the liberal imprimatur on the Massachusetts health care law even during the design phase.”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?f.....KfuS6gfxPY
Earle Belle| 10.27.11 @ 5:52PM
Cain/Paul on the Housing Bubble
Of course, there is no comparison. One was absolutely right and the other was absolutely wrong. No one is perfect and this is especially true of politicians, but to be so horribly wrong–even arrogantly wrong–about one of the worst financial crises in American history does not bode well for anyone seeking this nation’s highest office.
Would anyone hire Cain as an economic adviser? If not, then why would anyone hire him for president?
http://a4cgr.wordpress.com/2011/10/16/01-785/
Video: Cain/Paul Comparison on the Housing Bubble
Once again, there is no comparison. Paul saw the crisis coming because he understood the economic factors that were creating it, particularly Federal Reserve interest rate policy. Cain did not see it coming because he still does not understand basic economic truths, hence his notion that Fed policy isn’t important or deserving of scrutiny. (Stunning comparison, must view!)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?f.....n0EApd5wgw