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The Spectacle Blog
1. Christine O’Donnell versus Michael Castle is exactly the primary to point to when people say it is impossible that Herman Cain can win. Castle was a much stronger frontrunner than Mitt Romney has ever been, plus a sure general election winner. O’Donnell had bigger liabilities than anything we’ve seen with Cain. O’Donnell’s platform was more in step with the Republican primary electorate and when a single poll showed her competitive in the general — an outlier, as it turned out — she was off to the races. Cain is already in a stronger position.
2. Cain’s decision to hold a Lincoln-Douglas debate with Newt Gingrich is an example of why people doubt he’ll hold his lead, however. The format favors Gingrich’s superior policy knowledge rather than Cain’s likeability. Gingrich is rising in the polls and has more to gain than to lose from the encounter. Maybe this is part of Cain’s master plan to finish Gingrich off so he can deal with Romney one-on-one, but it doesn’t seem worth the risk.
3. Bill Kristol may be unhappy with the Republican presidential field, but the theoretical openness of the race as shown in polls isn’t the same as practical openness. Major primary filing deadlines are coming up as early as next week. Iowa is in 70 days. And jumping out to a lead in the polls is one thing; having the money and organization to sustain that lead is another. A candidate who jumps in at this point would have to have done a lot of the groundwork beforehand to have any real chance of success.
View all comments (18) | Leave a comment
More Blog Posts by W. James Antle, III
http://spectator.org/blog/2011/10/25/random-thoughts-on-the-gop-rac
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Casey Abell| 10.25.11 @ 2:35PM
"Christine O'Donnell versus Michael Castle is exactly the primary to point to when people say it is impossible that Herman Cain can win."
Guys, maybe I'm missing something. But do you really think this horrible memory is going to HELP Cain? Are you advising him to go on TV and deny he's a witch?
I dunno, maybe you're trying to wreck Herm by comparing him to the wondrous Christine. But every time you do this, you make the already bumbling Cain look even more unelectable. Why don't you try a Rubio comparison instead? You know, a race where the Republican insurgent actually wins the general?
W. James Antle III | 10.25.11 @ 4:06PM
I am not trying to help or hurt him. I am simply pointing out the facts. Pundits say it is simply impossible for Cain to win. O'Donnell is one of several data points that refutes that.
Casey Abell| 10.26.11 @ 1:46PM
Whatever you're trying to do, the O'Donnell comparison crushes Cain. Try Rubio instead.
Clint| 10.25.11 @ 2:49PM
Ya Might Wanna Just Read: Ron Paul's Plan To Restore America.
It's Simple, Strong & Won't Make Eyes Glaze Over.
http://www.ronpaul2012.com/wp-.....caPlan.pdf
The Tea Party Rebellion Is Here.
SpiralArchitect| 10.25.11 @ 6:48PM
Thx for staying on topic, Clint...your topic.
Clints topical rebellion is here...apply sparingly.
Animal | 10.26.11 @ 10:20AM
Except that Ron Paul won't win the nomination and will never be President, not least of which because he's a nut. Get over it.
martin j smith| 10.25.11 @ 3:25PM
you know if you are using Obama as the standard anyone who complains our field as "weak" is an idiot and deserves no respect at least from me. If Obama can elected any of the Republican group can too with better results except: Ron Paul,Mitt Romney and John Huntsman.
martin j smith| 10.25.11 @ 3:36PM
Look at the head post at Gateway pundit about Mitt Romney. Boy does he need vetting which means a good grilling about his positions say on limitations on state Unions. What does Romney believe in ? Lets let it all hang out.
beebop2| 10.26.11 @ 5:39AM
I think it is clear that Mittless is a politician of convenience ... he will espouse whatever viewpoint is convenient and pray that no one remembers what he said just four short months ago. What is it with people from Massachusetts?
NotPropagandized| 10.25.11 @ 3:39PM
Maybe Newt and Herman have a deal? If they've had a conversation already, how do you think it went? Newt/Cain? Cain/Newt? If it was Cain/Newt, they might just march right over Mitt.
Repeat: Will vote for Mitt in a heartbeat if nominated. But in meantime, anybody but Mitt and Ron would be peachy... as in TeamGeorgia.
SpiralArchitect| 10.25.11 @ 7:56PM
indeed
SpiralArchitect| 10.25.11 @ 7:56PM
indeed
Dai Alanye | 10.25.11 @ 5:44PM
Antle and many pundits look at the race analytically. The American people tend to go for who looks and acts "Presidential."
Analytically, Santorum is the strongest conservative candidate, despite those emotional foes who downgrade him for backing Spector. But he is unable to look as confident and strong as the ideal President should. Newt is weak not because of his policies but because he has acted un-presidential in the past, and lacks the aura of power and confidence that Reagan so famously displayed.
Romney, despite good looks, well-combed hair and sharply-creased trousers displays a slight but definite nervousness and tentativeness that is un-presidential in the eyes of the typical voter. Were he to look Reaganesque, Lincolnesque or Washington-like he'd be running away from the pack. Instead, he reminds too many of a slick time-share salesman.
Even poor Michelle Bachmann, a wonderful cheerleader and first-rate on certain issues, looks too eager and makes too many jokes, sending a clear signal that she lacks presidential dominance.
Cain is doing well despite numerous flubs and displays of iignorance because he projects confidence, doesn't get too worked up by mistakes, and makes no snarky attacks on his competitors. The latter is a lesson Huntsman, among others, has yet to learn. Snark doesn't go over well. Criticism of opposition figures should be sober and reasoned.
So don't downgrade Herman too quickly. He looks good and, therefore, to the majority of voters, is good. As for me, I feel he has the right instincts, and that counts for something as well.
SpiralArchitect| 10.25.11 @ 7:57PM
Very sound conclusion.
john dubose| 10.25.11 @ 11:56PM
Restoring business confidence is of such overwhelming importance that Republicans should ONLY care about who is most likely to win. All the candidates have their faults but if Obama and the Dems get another term the economy is toast and nothing else will matter.
For instance Ron Paul is calling for a general strategic backing off. Whether or not it is a good idea, a wrecked economy can not support any decent foreign policy. We will have to retreat all the way to the Rio Grande and the coasts.
Janet| 10.26.11 @ 12:01AM
Cain is trying to boost Gingrich. Cain doesn't want the nomination; he wants to be the next highly paid pundit, maybe with his own show.
Karla| 10.26.11 @ 11:16AM
I have to go with one of the other posters on the DE Primary race winner/yes she won the Primary but she did not win the election. Being her 3rd time charm(and I am not even a resident in DE)but it was not hard to figure out that she had no chance to do so...she was simply not a strong enough candidate to sustain any type of bump and DE is I might add one of those States that does not always play well for Conservatives no matter how upset the electorate is....
For me still too early as in the end the ground game in the early States will be a huge factor especially in larger States like FL/where there is so much ground to cover and also a closed Primary State....I am counting no one out and will in the end vote ABO no matter who/many did not vote on principle last time and look what we got not again.....Primary vote for me is still undecided
princeliberty| 10.31.11 @ 12:59PM
The Christine O'Donnell race for the Senate is also warning to not vote for Cain.
Otherwise Obama becomes the new Koons and walks in with a 20% plus victory in November.