The Spectacle Blog
Both Joe Lawler and Jim Antle felt obliged to comment on Ross Douthat’s column arguing for the “inevitability” of Mitt Romney as the GOP nominee. If Romney is the eventual nominee, the two key factors will be:
- The strategic miscalculation of the Rick Perry campaign in skipping the Ames Straw Poll and instead having their guy announce his candidacy in South Carolina. Iowa Republicans were deeply offended by that purposeful snub, which might not have mattered much had Perry been able to maintain his late-August/early-September front-runner surge. But now that Perry’s scraping bottom (6th place in Iowa, 7th in New Hampshire) the campaign’s arrogant roll-out is coming back to haunt them. Team Perry is now spending money to advertise in Iowa, but prospects of a recovery there are iffy at best. It will be hard for Perry to present himself as a viable alternative if he goes 1-for-5 in the first five nominating contests (Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Florida and Nevada).
- The failure of the Herman Cain campaign to build a credible “ground game” in the early states. Time magazine’s Mark Benjamin has a brutal evaluation of this problem, which has been worrying Cain’s supporters for months. One attendee at this past weekend’s Iowa Faith & Freedom Forum mentioned that the Cain booth had no yard signs available: People were asking for the signs, but they had none to give. Such missed opportunities in terms of the rudiments of campaign organizing are hard to explain except as bungling incompetence and, with just seven weeks remaining until the Jan. 3 caucuses, time is rapidly running out.
Douthat’s argument for Romney’s inevitability seems to involve the assumption that Cain can’t possibly win, which is an assumption his campaign has had to deal from the beginning. Karl Rove’s smug dismissal of Cain is typical of this attitude. Yet for all Cain’s shortcomings as a candidate, he is still capable of inspiring fervent grassroots support. If his campaign can somehow organize that support, a miraculous upset is yet possible.
One suspects that if Cain did manage to stop Romney, Rove would be as horrified as he was when Christine O’Donnell beat Mike Castle in last year’s Delaware Senate primary. The prospect of embarrasing Karl Rove might be the kind of goal that finally inspires the Cain campaign to get organized.
View all comments (18) | Leave a comment
Related Blog Posts
More Blog Posts by Robert Stacy McCain
http://spectator.org/blog/2011/10/25/did-someone-say-inevitable
Follow us:
ADVERTISEMENT
SPONSORED LINKS
FLASHBACK TO: 1995
-
Pope Culture
A man of faith in a godless age is hitting Americans where it hurts.
-
Why the GOP Does Not, Like, Totally Suck
Mr. and Mrs. American Spectator Reader, let P.J. O’Rourke talk sense to your kids.
-
Dames at Sea
-
In the Absence of Guns
In Britain, defending your property can get you life.
-
The Metaphysical Martini
-
Counting the Costs of Clintonism
The debacle of this president’s administration is both a cause and a symptom of the decline of American values. Unless Congress impeaches him, that decline will go on unchecked. An eminent jurist surveys the damage and assesses the chances for the recovery of our culture.
-
Chuck McHagel
It won’t take long for conservatives to scratch this presidential wannabe off their 2008 scorecard.
-
The Legacy of Old John and Mother Fresh-Roasted
-
It’s the Best Time of the Year
The American Christmas, like the songs that celebrate it, makes room for everybody under the rainbow. Is that why so many people seem to be hostile to it?
-
The Bush Crack-Up
Was the President done in by the economy, or by the politics of the economy?
Clip of the Day
ADVERTISEMENT
Agent99| 10.25.11 @ 1:55AM
Is there some reason to think that Perry was "purposeful" in snubbing Iowa so that he could announce at the redstate gathering? What possible purpose could he have had? Is there some long standing grudge he has against Iowa?
As for Cain, I've got to figure he's either not really running for President --- he's either vying to be someone's running mate, or it was a book tour disguised as a campaign --- or he thinks he can turn the conventional wisdom on its ear and win the nomination without a ground game.
I think Newt has a path to victory as the last not-Romney standing, if Perry and Cain can't pull out of their tailspins.
Bumr50| 10.25.11 @ 7:47AM
Cain's support is growing, rather than receding.
Given the supposed "gaffes" last week, and them being seized upon by both Dems and supporters of other GOP nominees, he's still doing remarkably well.
This leads me to believe that he's garnering support from independents/swing voters.
Go Cain.
Cam O. Milety| 10.25.11 @ 10:57AM
But the Paulbots told me that Cain was finished! They said Cain was gone! It was supposed to be a two way race between Paul and Romney! If they were wrong about that ... maybe they're wrong about other things. Maybe Ron Paul really does have some fruitcake ideas that keep him from being taken seriously!
Mal_Content| 10.25.11 @ 12:07PM
"Maybe Ron Paul really does have some fruitcake ideas that keep him from being taken seriously!"
No doubt he does have some fruitcake ideas, like having a plan in writing to cut government waste and overspending...WHAT A LOON! Right guys? Right?
Most of the super-serious, "credible" conservatives have failed to...you know, BE CONSERVATIVE...so maybe some fruitcake ideas are in order.
Cam O. Milety| 10.25.11 @ 12:23PM
Yeah maybe some fruitcake ideas are in order. Like Paul's idea of competing currencies.
You see, if Paul had his way, we'd have the regular old greenbacks still in circulation, but we'd also have PRIVATE currencies competing. Digital currencies, currencies backed by gold or silver or the price of pork bellies, whatever you want. Retailers would have to decide which currencies to accept and consumers would have to decide which currencies to carry, and keeping up with all of the exchange rates would be loads of fun.
Total loonytoons. Worse than 999.
bluecollarbytes| 10.25.11 @ 8:39AM
Obama won in 08, destroying years of conventional thinking. Then Obama destroyed most all post-08 conventional thinking, from both sides, that had Obama 'taking a middle course' of some kind. How'd that all work out?
The country elected a guy with known radical roots. Electing Cain would be like resetting back to normal.
Could Obama win again? couldn't an earthquake also sink Los Angeles?
Casey Abell| 10.25.11 @ 9:55AM
Well, swell, we'll "horrify" Karl Rove with a Cain nomination. And when the clueless Cain - I'm pro-life AND pro-choice! And my economic plan is the number nine! - loses almost as badly as Christine O'Donnell in the general election, we'll be even happier that Rove was horrified.
Jeez, sometimes I wonder if Robert is just spouting this silliness for effect or if he really (gulp) believes it.
To state the obvious, the idea is to beat Obama. Not to horrify Rove. I don't care about Rove's emotional states. I want Barry out of the White House. And the befuddled Cain has about as much chance of beating Obama as I do.
Casey Abell| 10.25.11 @ 10:08AM
By the way, Obama is already ahead of Cain by eight points on the RCP average. The bumbling Herm is sinking fast. Even the pollster who has been most kind to him, Rasmussen, now has the Clueless One (and proud of it!) down by a half-dozen to Barry.
It will only get worse as Herm stumbles from one goofy interview and debate to another.
And I don't want to hear the standard "It's early! The polls don't matter! The polls are wrong!" The polls weren't wrong about Christine O'Donnell. At least Herm won't go on TV and deny he's a witch. Or he hasn't done it yet. But I'm not sure if I would put it past him.
Cam O. Milety| 10.25.11 @ 11:27AM
By the way, Obama is already ahead of Cain by eight points on the RCP average. The bumbling Herm is sinking fast.
Do you not know what the word "average" means? Or is it the word "sinking" that has you flummoxed?
The gap between Obama and Cain is getting SMALLER over time. That's the opposite of "sinking". One recent poll has Cain beating Obama by 2%.
Casey Abell| 10.25.11 @ 12:00PM
"The gap between Obama and Cain is getting SMALLER over time. That's the opposite of "sinking". One recent poll has Cain beating Obama by 2%."
That "recent" poll was Rasmussen's previous survey. Rasmussen's new results put Cain six points down to Obama, a slide of eight points. Cain has been falling further behind Obama, not closing in on him.
Frankly, I'm surprised that Herm is still in it at all against Barry, considering the clueless candidate's comedy hour antics lately. The abortion tangle was a gigantic joke, and not a good one. Sorry, Herm, you can't get away with just telling people to lighten up.
Casey Abell| 10.25.11 @ 12:05PM
By the way, here's every poll result on Cain vs. Obama. As you can see, Barry beats Herm in every poll, except for that one previous Rasmussen result which slightly favored Herm. And even Rasmussen now shows Obama beating Cain by six.
http://www.realclearpolitics.c.....-2003.html
Cam O. Milety| 10.25.11 @ 12:10PM
As you can see, Cain starts out nearly 20 points behind Obama, and closes that to single digits. The fact that the most recent polls are all below the moving average tells you that the recent trend is in Cain's favor. This is not what "sinking" usually means.
I'm not saying Cain would win easily. He's got huge challenges. But the doomy gloomy predictions of him losing to Obama are just sour grapes from people whose candidates ARE sinking in the polls And You Know Who I'm Talking About.
Casey Abell| 10.25.11 @ 12:18PM
And most of the single-digit results come from Rasmussen, a pollster who has been consistently kinder to Cain than any other. And even Rasmussen now shows Herm tumbling eight points against Barry (from +2 to -6) in his latest poll.
If (or when) comedy hour continues, Cain will soon be back in double-digit deficit territory. He's almost there now, eight points down to Obama on the RCP average.
Cam O. Milety| 10.25.11 @ 12:54PM
Again, you seem to be confused about what "average" means. The most recent polls are ABOVE the moving average, which says that the recent trend is positive for Cain. Which is not true of, say Ron Paul, whose most recent polls are BELOW his moving average.
You may be right that Cain will fall hard. Ronbots have been saying so for a while now and even a Ronbot has to get something right every now and then. Don't they?
But ... whether you like it or not Cain is gaining in a lot of polls. Here, for example, since you like RCP at the moment:
http://www.realclearpolitics.c.....-1452.html
Cain climbs while Perry plummets, and Romney hangs in there somehow.
Or look at the state by state results. Cain up by 8 in Iowa, climbing to a strong second in NH, up by 10 in South Carolina, up by 12 in WI, pulling up to a tie with Romney in Nevada.
Imagine what he'd be doing if the 999 thing wasn't such a mess.
Daryl| 10.25.11 @ 10:29AM
And what great virtue did we gain by Christine O'Donnell's "victory?" There is absolutely no doubt that if Cain wins the nomination, Obama wins the election. If that gives you satisfaction, go for it. But then you will be the R.I.N.O! (Republican in name only)
JASmius | 10.25.11 @ 11:28AM
Yes, but we also know how Christine O'Donnell's upset win in the Delaware senate primary last year turned out in the general election, don't we? Is that really the parallel you want to use?
Zack| 10.25.11 @ 4:09PM
Cain's the high risk high reward candidate. Personally, I think he's more risk than reward. Romney's a known quantity: he's not going to gain or lose too much support. Even with Obama's approval in the low 40s, though, he's at a statistical tie with Romney. Cain's further behind, but he's still got a lot of people who can potentially be sold on him.
If Obama's approval stays as low as it is now (or lower), Romney's a good bet to win. If his approval rebounds, though, I don't think Romney will be able to take the presidency (he's a lot like Kerry in 2004 in that he doesn't have many ardent supporters, but he's a least bad option for a lot people in his party). Cain on the other hand, still has room to grow (or shrink). I think he's got a chance to win even if Obama's approval ratings grow, but there's also a chance he could lose even if Obama remains unpopular. I think I prefer Romney over the field, but I'm not particularly excited by anyone.
Mike Rogers | 10.27.11 @ 1:56AM
I for one love the prospect of embarrassing Karl Rove. (and the Kraut Hammer).
Rove has been a smug elitist from the beginning, and Krauthammer was close to racist at first, and has not shaken off his dimissive attitude to this day.
Beating Romney - essential; sticking it to the ruling class - PRICELESS:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?f.....Ms4ge8jlTQ