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The Spectacle Blog
Ross Douthat makes many good points in the column Joe mentions, but I’d register some disagreements. First, while Mitt Romney is the likely nominee he isn’t quite inevitable. Has Rick Perry really shown any flaws that weren’t apparent in George W. Bush circa 1999? The principal difference seems to be Perry’s late entry.
With $17 million to burn, Perry can’t be entirely counted out yet. That said, Perry is in freefall because both the main pillars of his candidacy — the perceptions of his electability and his conservatism relative to Romney — are crumbling. That brings us to Herman Cain. On paper, I’ll agree that Cain doesn’t seem like he should be the Republican nominee. But on paper, Tim Pawlenty and Jon Huntsman should have been top-tier candidates, so paper may not be worth the, uh, paper it’s printed on.
If the primaries were held today, Cain would not only beat Romney in most of the South, but also in places like Ohio and Illinois. That’s enough to at least make Cain a problem. The assumption is that his current poll numbers can’t hold, that he’ll be the latest conservative flavor of the month, and that he’ll wilt under scrutiny. I think there are good reasons to think those things too, but just like in the case of the Pawlenty boomlet that was supposed to happen, I’d like to see real-world polling evidence bear this out before I take it to the bank.
Anecdotally, many Cain supporters have stood firm in the face of attacks on the 999 tax plan and their candidate’s convoluted comments about abortion. If he has bonded with his supporters the way Sarah Palin did last time around, they may be hard to pry loose. Secondly, there is a certain fatigue among conservatives who have swung from Donald Trump, to Cain, to Michele Bachmann, to Perry, and now back to Cain again. This also includes people who have been soft supporters of Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul, among other candidates. Some of these conservatives are ready to stay put, if only to ensure there is a single anti-Romney in the race.
If Cain’s popularity holds, his biggest problem will be organization. Popularity can bring in money (Robert Stacy McCain reports that Cain’s fundraising has already improved). But as Ron Paul discovered when he outraised all his primary opponents in the fourth quarter of 2007, it may be too late to significantly upgrade a campaign infrastructure. Cain will need leads big enough to overcome Romney’s superior get-out-the-vote efforts.
All of the reasons Douthat gives for why Romney’s inevitability against his Tea Party opponents raise obvious questions: Why then has he at various points trailed this cast of characters and why can’t he ever reliably break 30 percent against them? Romney has real weaknesses and less margin for error than the frontrunners who came before him. If he loses Iowa, South Carolina, and Florida to the same candidate, he is in trouble. Is that a long shot? Yes. But it’s not impossible.
View all comments (22) | Leave a comment
More Blog Posts by W. James Antle, III
http://spectator.org/blog/2011/10/24/romney-isnt-inevitable-quite-y
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Tim the Enchanter| 10.24.11 @ 2:29PM
Thank you, James. The thought of having to choose between Romney and the Kenyan was too depressing to think about. Not a gnat's eyelash difference between them. Surely, we can do better than Romney!
wodiej| 10.25.11 @ 8:09AM
We could have but we just have too many Americans who are willing to "settle" instead of really fight for something. It's much easier to just cast a vote and then go back to watching reality shows and sports. yes, the anybody but Obama mantra is just pure laziness.
Clint| 10.24.11 @ 2:31PM
The TARPSter , RomneyCare, BAINster Is The Poster Boy For The Crony Capitalist Set Up.
Follow Wall Street & The Ruling Elites' Frontman, Mittens Romney's Campaign Donor Trail.
Goldman Sachs $354,700
Credit Suisse Group $195,250
Morgan Stanley $185,800
HIG Capital $176,500
Barclays $155,250
Kirkland & Ellis $129,100
Bank of America $121,500
PricewaterhouseCoopers $118,250
EMC Corp $117,300
JPMorgan Chase & Co $109,750
The Villages $92,500
Vivint Inc $88,250
Sullivan & Cromwell $78,750
Marriott International $75,837
Bain Capital $69,500
UBS AG $64,250
Wells Fargo $63,000
Blackstone Group $57,300
Citigroup Inc $56,550
KKR & Co $53,900
The Tea Party Rebellion Is Here.
PattyMor| 10.24.11 @ 2:45PM
I started out as a Bachmann supporter. But, I didn't like Bachmann running around with Gardasil scare stories. So I switched to Cain. He has led a real life of accomplishments outside of government. He had no pedigreed parents, nor a father's fortune to get his start. No, with the backing of his father, he keep his nose clean, and studied math and got a degree outside of the Ivy League. He rose in business on his own talents. So go ahead Hillary and make your snarky comments about "The Pizza Man".
Cain is the man who can beat Obama. Romney will get evicerated by Obama. How is Romney going to defend Romneycare when his very own advisors helped Obama write the Obamacare law? How is he going to defend his flipfloping on abortion? Romney best selling point is, hey I'm not Obama. Ok, but he's also not the reformer that we desparately need.
Cam O. Milety| 10.24.11 @ 2:59PM
Cain is the man who can beat Obama. Romney will get evicerated by Obama. How is Romney going to defend Romneycare when his very own advisors helped Obama write the Obamacare law? How is he going to defend his flipfloping on abortion?
Who is going to be attacking Romney about Romneycare if he wins the nomination? Obama sure isn't! And no matter who wins Obamacare isn't going to be the issue that decides the election. The election will be about the economy, the economy, and the economy.
Romney will appeal to a lot of moderate voters who are disenchanted with Obama, but not on board with the social issues of the hard-core right. You can't win the election without grabbing some of the independent voters from the middle.
tonypal| 10.24.11 @ 4:18PM
Cam, I'm a Tea Party conservative who is not afraid of Romney, mainly because he'll have to deal with a Congress that will be to his right on almost every issue. However, the idea that we need someone who will appeal to moderates is the same hogwash that brought us the candidacy of John McCain. How did that turn out?
Let's just look at which republicans have been successful nationally since I've been voting, which means the early 80's. Reagan was the guy who was going to scare everyone away but bloodthirsty right wingers, at least according to the moderate Bush the Elder. Not only did Reagen win 2 enormous landslide victories running as an ideological conservative, but he did it without the benefit of Fox News, Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity, etc. Then, just for good measure, George HW Bush ran as a Reagan conservative and wiped out Dukakis.
Then, Bush moderated and we got Slick Willie. In 1996, although the odds were long and Dole never had much of a chance, the fact that he ran a dull campaign as a moderate appealing to independents sealed his fate. GW Bush ran twice as a red blooded conservative and won.
Then came the nomination of John McCain, an independent's wet dream if there ever was one. Are you starting to get the point? The American people do not respond to moderation, they respond to conviction. Romney needs to be a conviction candidate. If he tries to play down conservatism in any way, the American people will sense weakness and stick with what they already know.
Again, in spite of his many weaknesses, I'm comfortable with Romney if he is dealing with big conservative majorities. He'll do just fine. I prefer others, but he'll do if he's ultimately the nominee.
Rogue Elephant| 10.24.11 @ 2:56PM
Romney is McCain 2.0.
Quartermaster| 10.24.11 @ 7:08PM
We won't have to deal with Romney. If the nominee is Romney a lot of conservative will refuse to vote for another RINO. Between Romney and Obama, the only real difference is the label they bear. Philosophically there isn't much difference (note to the disaffected - I'm not saying there is no difference between Obama and Mittens, just not enough to matter).
wodiej| 10.25.11 @ 8:06AM
Establishment apparently has not learned their lesson.
Clint| 10.24.11 @ 3:01PM
For Starters, The U-3 Unemployment Rate Is 9.1 Percent, The U-6 Unemployment Rate Is up To 16.5 Percent. The National Debt Is $14,871 Trillion.
A Refrigerator Could Beat Obama.
The Tea Party Rebellion Is Here.
larkforsure | 10.24.11 @ 3:13PM
[ SOS ] Complaint about Human Rights Violations by IBM China on Centennial
Please Google:
IBM detained mother of ex-employee on the day of centennial
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How Much IBM Can Get Away with is the Responsibility of the Media
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Tragedy of Labor Rights Repression in IBM China
Interested Conservative| 10.24.11 @ 4:31PM
Oh Mr. Antle - "If he loses Iowa, South Carolina, and Florida to the same candidate, he is in trouble."
If any of the candidates wins each of those states, I suspect the general election is over. That would be enough momentum and variety that the combined campaign funds of the Gov. and the POTUS couldn't overcome absent a later implosion.
I wonder if Gov. Romney might be in a position where mostly 2nd place finishes might be enough, but a single 3d or worse might be lethal.
Oddly, Newt may be the one he needs to worry about most. Romney needs a divided right to keep his "inevitability", but Newt is a past master of scrambling through a field and managing multiple attacks. It is experience unique to a congressional party leader, and he's the only one in the race.
Unless all the others drop out and rally the base behind a single non-Romney, Newt, and to a lesser extent Rep. Paul, allows Romney's plurality to prevail.
W. James Antle III | 10.24.11 @ 5:28PM
If we just go by what the poll numbers say right now, and they will likely change a lot by January, we'd see something that looks like this: Cain wins Iowa, Romney wins New Hampshire, Cain wins South Carolina, Romney wins Nevada.
In between South Carolina and Nevada is Florida, where Romney and Cain are basically tied. If Cain wins Florida, Romney doesn't look so inevitable anymore. But Romney has the resources and organization to campaign in multiple states at once, which would be the shape of the race after Nevada, so he wouldn't be knocked out yet.
If, as you suggest, a divided field minimizes Romney's losses in the early states or leads to multiple candidates splitting the early states, Romney almost certainly wins the nomination.
Interested Conservative| 10.24.11 @ 6:13PM
Very insightful reply. I wonder about the depth of support amongst the candidates. I suspect the Paulites are most committed, but I also think Romney has a solid grip on the "country club/New England/moderate" wing, but it also seems to be his upper limit - say about 30% max.
The chore for the others, then, is getting to 31% out of the remainder. I agree Mitt is currently strongest, and think Cain will fade but not disappear. Perry has enough cash to stick around, and Newt seems happy to carry on cheaply, so I suppose it could come down to who picks up the Santorum/Bachman blocs as they'll likely hit the wall soonest.
If that's after Florida, Romney wins, if before, a non-Romney could surpass him.
Red Phillips | 10.24.11 @ 7:11PM
Once the race goes national, such as Super Tuesday, in what Southern state does Romney beat Cain unless Cain implodes?
I think Cain has a better chance than many believe.
Clint| 10.24.11 @ 6:48PM
"GOP presidential hopeful Ron Paul says he has raised more than $2.75 million in his latest "money bomb," mostly in small-dollar contributions from thousands of donors.
Paul's latest online fundraising event, which began Wednesday and ended at noon today, brought in money from all 50 states and resulted in a total of 44,527 donations. The average donation was $61.92 while the median was $25.
"This money bomb's success conveys that Ron Paul's supporters, whether independent or loosely organized, are poised to dig in deep and back him" even in troubled economic times, said Jesse Benton, Paul's national campaign chairman."
The Tea Party Rebellion Is Here.
Quartermaster| 10.24.11 @ 7:15PM
Clint, while Paul won't win, it's really a shame that he won't. Paul is the only guy in the race who has any idea what it will take to put the country back on the right road. It is more an indication of how degraded the country is, than of a supposed wacky Paul.
Frankly, if George Washington were running with the constitution as his stated platform, many of the posters here would regard him as a loon ball.
wodiej| 10.25.11 @ 8:05AM
He's too OLD.
Clint| 10.24.11 @ 7:34PM
We Tea Party Patriots Have Changed The Dynamics Of Electoral Politics.
The November 2010 Elections Demonstrate Our Ability To Challenge The RINO-CINO Ruling Elite And Chase Pennsylvania's Arlen Spector Out Of The GOP & Beat Delaware's Mike Castle In The GOP Primary & Seat Tea Party Candidates Pat Toomey and Kentucky's Dr.Rand Paul, Etc. In State Wide Senate Seats.
We Tea Party Patriots Play Four Quarters & Don't Leave It In The Locker Room.
RON PAUL'S “PLAN TO RESTORE AMERICA”
http://www.ronpaul2012.com/the.....e-america/
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Nite| 10.24.11 @ 9:54PM
I wouldn't count Governor Perry out just yet. He has been a great Governor for TX. He is a staunch conservative, pro-life, defense hawk, friend to Israel. Best of all he is smart on all types of energy. This would put people to work with good paying jobs quickly. None of the GOP candidates are as sharp in this area as Perry. That would be first. He also knows what it takes to make a better business climate. Most of all, he believes in states rights and following the constitution. He detests Obama and could beat him and his teleprompter.