President Barack Obama sent his congratulations to the voters of
Tunisia, who turned out in large numbers Sunday to elect 217
delegates to the Constituent Assembly that will write a new
constitution for the country that initiated the “Arab Spring” 10
months ago. The Assembly will then be responsible for organizing
parliamentary and presidential elections, so presumably there is
already a consensus that the new constitution will define at least
two branches of government.
Heavily favored — the results will not be officially
released until Tuesday — the Ennahda (rebirth) party led by Rachid
Gannouchi has represented for 30 years (during most of which it was
banned) the Islamist tendency in Tunisia and is expected to have
done well, which means it has a shot at winning an outright
majority. Barring that, it will either seek allies among the
non-religious parties or motivate the latter into forming a
secularist coalition. As they range from ex-communists to
technocrats who served the fallen regime of Zine Ben Ali, this may
be difficult to achieve. On the other hand, Ennahda in the past has
joined with leftist and ex-communist parties in demanding reforms
of the Ben Ali system.
Much will depend on how Tunisians view th impact of the
evolution of post-Gaddafi Libya. Gaddafi’s capture and lynching,
reminiscent of the fate that befell such tyrants as Mussolini and
Ceausescu, by forces of the new government may be a cathartic act
of revenge, but some observers fear it may presage a descent into
anarchy and civil war between the country’s tribes and clans. The
announcement by the Council of National Transition that sharia
would be applied — apparently pre-empting any kind of constituent
assembly or even indicating that none is needed — will be
contrasted with Gannouchi’s pre-election statement, consistent with
what he has been saying for years, that his party would not seek to
impose religious law, or religion for that matter, on anyone in
Tunisia.
Meanwhile there are reports that the aged and handicapped
French resident of Kenya alleged kidnapped last month by Somali
pirates has died in captivity. The French defense minister, Gerard
Longuet, while discussing with the press the cost to France of the
Libyan operation (300 million euros, compared to the billion dollar
price tag of the U.S. contribution to the effort), mentioned that
Gaddafi’s end was brutal, but so were the thousands of ends he
brought about. Longuet did not say anything about sending a battle
group into the Indian Ocean to wipe out the pirate dens. Not that
anyone asked whether the French government was considering such an
option.