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Thoughts on a Post-Gaddafi Libya

By Aaron Goldstein on 10.20.11 @ 11:38AM

If Colonel Muammar Gaddafi isn't already dead, he soon will be. To which I say good riddance.

But let's not uncork the champagne bottles just yet. It is far from certain that a post-Gaddafi Libya will be any better off and if it is any better off it will be a very long time before we can arrive at that conclusion. Then there is the question of Libyan rebel links to al Qaeda.

In an interview with an Italian newspaper this past spring, Libyan rebel commander Abdel-Hakim al-Hasidi admitted to recruiting at least two dozen men who had fought against U.S. and coalition troops in Iraq. It is also worth noting that al-Hasidi himself fought against U.S. and coalition troops in Afghanistan before being captured in Pakistan and turned over to the U.S. who subsequently returned him to Libya. For its part, Libya released al-Hasidi in 2008 as part of "a reconciliation process with Islamists." Well, so much for reconciliation. Amongst the other Islamists released was Sufyan Ben Qumu, who like al-Hasidi was captured in Pakistan but unlike al-Hasidi spent six years in Guantanamo Bay. Qumu played a prominent role in training the Libyan rebels.

John Guardiano makes the case that the fall of Gaddafi "strengthens America's image in the Islamic world." I doubt that very much. The Islamic world hates America as much today as it did yesterday and will still hate us ten years from now. Does anyone honestly think jihadists fought to overthrow Gaddafi to replace it with a secular state? This isn't to say that jihadists won't accept our help. They're perfectly fine if NATO air power can help bring about an Islamic fundamentalist state in Libya. Just don't expect them to show any gratitude for it.

Osama bin Laden might be dead but his 1996 fatwa and 1998 fatwa against America still stand. Killing Americans and our allies be they civilian or military "is an individual duty for every Muslim who can do it in any country in which it is possible to do it." The worst case scenario would be if another terrorist attack on the scale of 9/11 were to take place in the United States and if the people responsible for planning, financing and/or carrying it out were harbored in Libya.

View all comments (17) | Leave a comment

Bob Grant| 10.20.11 @ 1:04PM

Our Nobel Peace Prize president sure has a lust for blood.

Victor Davis Hansen refers to him as our Predator in Chief.

As far as Kadaffy is concerned, he was the devil we knew and was relatively harmless considering the country he ruled over and how much he relied on the West to sustain his odd lifestyle.

I'm so sure ushering in the Muslim Brotherhood to control the country was either in our best interests or Israels.

We might long for the days of goofy Kadaffy in the not too distant future.

Dixie Pixie| 10.20.11 @ 1:16PM

First of all the Libyan War was not a peaceful overthrow of a previous government by a organized and cohesive secular popular groups like the European “Color Revolutions”.
Nor was this an Army backed popular protest movement like the Egyptian Spring.

The Libyan War was a classic case of a weak and tyrannical government falling to a diverse, unorganized and mutually conflicting tribal groups.
There is no majority tribal group powerful enough to hold the coalition together once Qaddafi is dead.

In fact it took the efforts of the CIA, Special Forces, SAS, MI6, and the French Security Services to organize the Libyan tribes into the successful effort to overthrow Qaddafi.
Without that foreign aid, the Revolt would have failed.
With the spooks in charge it is almost certain that Libya will fall into chaos.

If anything this situation resembles the Congo Wars where foreign abetted tribal groups fought each other for control of the nations natural resources.
If the spooks can remain united and are skillful enough to construct a self-reenforcing majority union of the Libyan tribes into a government that can deliver goods and services to the populace then the Congo situation can be avoided.

If not then Libya will fall into the classic Arab / Muslim pattern of political chaos until a classic Strongman emerges to impose a tyrannical government strong enough to hold the government together.

Until that Strongman emerges, years of political chaos will happen as each foreign faction plays its favorite tribal group to maintain its share of control of Libyan resources.
The tribes will kill and murder each other to gain more natural resource thereby gaining favor and power with the foreign powers.
All will battle to gain the dominate position of governmental / resource control.

Libya will be an open sore for years to come as Obama / Hillary are nowhere as political skillful as they think themselves to be.

Bob Grant| 10.20.11 @ 1:37PM

What's not being discussed much here or anywhere is the racism toward black africans that will surely follow after some arab muslim entity controls the country.

Say what you will about kadaffy, but he was friendly toward his african neighbors to the south.

How ironic that our predator-in-chief ushers in a new era of arab-african racism in Libya.

Dixie Pixie| 10.20.11 @ 5:17PM

LOL...Bob
He so loved the little Chadians, that he invaded and tried to conquer the nation of Chad.
He was so beloved, the Chadians handed him his hat by the use of irregular militia in improvised anti-tank weapons mounted on light japanese pickup trucks against T55 tanks and BMP armored vehicles.
LOL...

Even funner is the thought that Socialists / Liberals are the Superior Moralists of Brilliant Intellectual Social Reasoning that they are Fighters Of Racism everywhere.
BBBBAAAA-HHHAAA-HHHAAAA-HHHAAAA

The Socialists / Liberals are so blinded by Ideological Doctrine of “Only Whites can be Racist by their Imperial Heritage” that they can nether see or comprehend any other form of racism.

Consider:::::
Arab on Black Racism
The Darfur Genocide........Crickets Chirping

Black on White Racism
Holder Justice Dept..........Crickets Singing

Black on Black Racism
Zimbabwe + Africa.........Crickets Orchestra

Blacks on Native Americans
Latin America......Crickets Steel Drum Band

Oriental on Whites
WWII Imprisonment........Crickets Big Band

Oriental on Blacks
Ongoing..........................Crickets Rock Opera

(--Drum Roll Please--)
(For over two millennium)

Han Chinese on Everybody
Everywhere...Full Cricket Symphony Orchestra

LOL...at Socialist pretentious blindness.

Bob Grant| 10.20.11 @ 7:14PM

I commented with a touch of irony. My only point being was there is a history of racism among Arabs toward black african immigrant workers. According to reports, Kaddaffy treated them relatively well compared to many other arab tribes.

Apparently, the muslim brotherhood have a history of racism against black africans, especially non-muslims.

So, assuming the MB eventually controls the country (a pretty safe assumption), racism against black will skyrocket. All thanks to our first BLACK president.

Just throwin' out some irony is all. Just sayin'.

Dixie Pixie| 10.20.11 @ 8:13PM

LOL with you, not at you.
Please accept my humble apologies for not making that clear.

You are clearly right in noting the irony of the Socialists liberating Arab bigotry and religious hatred in the name of Freedom, Liberty and Democracy.

Obama killed American Superiority in the Middle East thinking the repressed people would blossom into a Secular Socialistic Utopia.
Instead the long suppressed bigotry and hatreds have been unleashed as demons to roam the Middle East.
The whole Middle East going to get a lot bloodier before it gets better because of Obama's policies.

On a related note:
Qaddafi was trying to conquer all of Africa first by direct military conquest, when that failed, then by political seduction and bribery.
He had all the normal Arab bigotries as noted by the lack of Black or Berber governmental personal or close friends.

Thanks for the irony Bob.

bfwebster| 10.20.11 @ 2:30PM

Aaron: yeah, I pretty much agree with everything you're saying. It seems like Pres. Obama keeps looking for a 'cheap Iraq' -- great photos of ink-stained voters without the feet-on-the-ground investment to get a country to that point. Egypt clearly is not headed in that direction, and I don't think Libya will either.

Trinacria| 10.20.11 @ 4:38PM

Perhaps it's not being discussed because, well, frankly, no one cares...

Trinacria| 10.20.11 @ 4:40PM

Misplaced reply - was supposed to be a response to Bob's comment above re: Lybians' view of black Africans...

Bob Grant| 10.20.11 @ 7:27PM

Please refer to my rebuttal to Dixie.

Dixie Pixie| 10.20.11 @ 8:26PM

Again my humble apologies Bob, for not making it clear I was with you on this comment.

Trinacria, we do care, it is just that the conservatives can do nothing about the Libyan War at the present time.
We can only enjoy the irony of liberal delusions.
So laugh now as there will be plenty to cry about later.

Paul McGrath| 10.20.11 @ 4:42PM

Yeah, well, for once it was not us leading the charge. Maybe that's a good thing. Maybe the fact that it wasn't just us blasting yet another Arab dickhead into the sand might lead other Arab and Islamic morons to conclude that it is their f*****-up, tyrannical, religious governments which f*** them over, not the big bad U. S. and their little brother, Israel.

Christ. If we could get Italy to take one of them out, the bastards would surrender en masse.

Paul McGrath| 10.20.11 @ 4:46PM

Apologies Aaron. It has been somewhat of a liquid lunch today. Seems to rev the engines, so to speak. Civility will prevail the next time.

Kingofthenet| 10.20.11 @ 6:06PM

It is so hard for you Conservatives to see the BRILLIANCE of President Obama's approach, because you guys think like 1st graders, Black & White(or with us or against us) . Obama understands certain things Anger much of the rest of the world.Uncritical support for Israel, touting 'American Exceptionalism' , telling everyone else to act one way while doing the opposite(Waterboarding, Torture) . So the President decides NOT to mention those things, Why make people hate you for no reason? Then he talks and acts decisively but let's others gain the credit and benefits( Talking about how this is a great day for the LIBYAN people) .American Foreign policy shouldn't be designed to make us 'feel' good or proud, it's to get the job that is necessary done with the least blowback on our people. Masterful work Mr.President!

Dixie Pixie| 10.20.11 @ 7:43PM

The reason why the conservatives can not see the “Brilliance” of Obama is because it is so well hidden.
Magical reasoning and persistent delusions never improves a situation.

Besides, Obama can not take credit for any action in an illegal war in which he refused all responsibility and control.

One “Victory” of a dead ruler does not heal a nation so fractured as Libya.
See my above post for further details.

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yisong| 10.24.11 @ 11:06PM

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