I wanted to provide a cursory analysis of the most significant
threats to American territorial security, national sovereignty and
interests abroad, as evidenced by foreign state actors. The Cold
War may be over, Osama bin Laden dead, and al-Qaeda weakened,
vulnerable and displaced. However, we can all agree that threats
remain, and must be identified, analyzed, and resolved.
These threats take on a variety of forms and function: global
terror exists, simultaneously, beyond the grasp of legitimate
government and as a proxy of that authority, through
state-sponsorship abroad. Chemical, biological, radiological, and
nuclear weapons (CBRN) threaten American lives, both at home and
abroad, and state actors aren’t the only one with their fingers on
the trigger. Rather, there is a serious and legitimate concern
surrounding rogue scientists and the potential that states are
providing, or will provide, technological assistance to terrorist
organizations. Moreover, financial crisis, narco-terror and
deteriorating state solvency threatens lives around the world.
Increasing interventionism will engender prompt reaction from a
host of local, regional and national political actors. And as
always, American interests will be targeted as the world’s hegemon
and lonely superpower.
10. Russia
The Cold War is over, but Russia still maintains the largest
arsenal of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) in the world. Some
4650 nuclear warheads are buoyed by an existing doctrine of
“limited nuclear war” to protect pressures against Russia and her
allies. The sheer scope of the illicit arms trade, in a country run
by billionaire oligarchs and their political pawns is alarming.
Regional conflagrations in South Ossetia and Abkhazia threaten NATO
member states. Vladimir Putin, no friend of the United States, is
set to return to the presidency next year, and will undoubtedly
continue to confound American directives in the U.N. Russia will
remain a troublemaker in international affairs, and the threat of
military intervention in Ukraine and direct conflict in Georgia
looms. Cold Peace remains chilling.
9. Sudan
Sudan’s threat to American interests is well known. The
erstwhile home of Osama bin Laden and the site of a vicious embassy
bombing, the US has been focused on Sudan since Clinton lobbed
dozens of cruise missiles towards Khartoum, to ward off Lewinski
headlines. The state recently split between the north and south,
but the former remains on the U.S. government’s list of state
sponsors of terror — a spot it has occupied since 1993. Despite
recent coordination between the U.S. and Sudanese leadership,
terrorists remain active in the country, and have proven their
ability to harm American targets.
8. Iraq
American troops in Iraq are generally safer than they have been
in years; however, they remain targets of Shi’a militia activity
and Sunni terror tactics. Moreover, nearly a decade of Iraqi
insurgency and jihad has shaped a new generation of terrorist
leadership. The mission in Iraq has bred a deep resentment of
American involvement in the Muslim world, and cultivated support
for international terror syndicates and the global jihadists
movement. Thus, as long as America is intent on maintaining a
billion-dollar embassy compound and a protracted troop presence,
conflict in Iraq will remain a cause célèbre and a
transnational rallying cry.
7. Somalia
From the al-Shabab terror network — which merged with al-Qaeda
in 2008 — to piracy on the high seas, the failed state of Somalia
presents a clear and present danger to American security interests
and international shipping commerce. Ethiopian forces invaded the
“state” as recently as 2007 to disrupt the brutal orthodoxy of
Islamic Courts government. Puntland and Somaliland demand
international support for secessionist aspirations, while clan and
militia fighting creeps over the borders into East African
neighbors sovereign territory. High-profile pirate activities has
already cost American lives, and experts agree that Somalia’s
maturing “al-Qaeda in East Africa and the Horn” is actively seeking
out Western targets…and membership. Recently, two New Jersey men
were arrested at JFK airport for planning to travel to East Africa
to join the terror network. Some 20 Somali-Americans have left
Minnesota over the past several years to enlist. One of the groups
leaders, Omar Hammami (who grew up in Alabama) declared his
allegiance to bin Laden. Remember, many of these folks are U.S.
passport holders. Alarming, to say the least…
6. Mexico
It’s strange to consider that a friendly, southern neighbor and
popular vacation getaway could present a material threat to
American national security. But the fact is that paramilitaries
employed by powerful Mexican drug cartels are guilty of
indiscriminate killings, political assassination, and, frequently,
targeted beheadings of rivals, civilians, and government agents.
Sorta sounds like Iraq a few years ago. The U.S. Justice Department
announced in 2009 that Mexican gangs are the “biggest organized
crime threat to the United States.” The violence has increased
since that time. It now threatens to engulf Mexico’s fragile
democracy. So far, 40,000 Mexicans have died in the militarization
of conflict between the cartels and government forces. We’ve got a
civil war on our border, and we’re hardly aware of it. Violence,
corruption and narco-trafficking will increasingly impact Mexico’s
neighbor to the North, who supplies the guns and consumes the
drugs.
To be continued…
