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The Spectacle Blog

The Microscopic Benefits of Appeasing Beijing

By John Tabin on 9.27.11 @ 6:14PM

With the Obama administration allowing Taiwan to upgrade its existing fleet of F-16s -- but not allowing the sale of new F-16s that Taipei equested -- China is protesting by cutting off some, but not all, military-to-military contacts. "Some in Washington believe that Beijing's response to the arms sales announcement has been muted, potentially because the administration did not offer Taiwan the 66 new F-16 C/D model planes it had requested," notes Josh Rogin of Foreign Policy. From a background briefing at the State Department yesterday:

SENIOR STATE DEPARTMENT OFFICIAL ONE: I think they have indicated that they're going to suspend or to cancel or postpone a series of mil-to-mil engagements, yes, military-to-military engagements.

QUESTION: But not - but nothing else, as far as you know?

SENIOR STATE DEPARTMENT OFFICIAL ONE: Nothing at this juncture, but it's not unusual that sometimes this takes more time than just a few days.

SENIOR STATE DEPARTMENT OFFICIAL TWO: Other questions for [Senior State Department Official One]?

SENIOR STATE DEPARTMENT OFFICIAL ONE: Yes, please. Yeah.

QUESTION: (Inaudible) you said mil-to-mil is going to be canceled?

SENIOR STATE DEPARTMENT OFFICIAL ONE: No, not all mil-to-mil. Some activities, as part of the military-to-military program, will be postponed, rescheduled or canceled. And as I indicated, it's not unusual that some of those will come over time, not announced immediately.

To recap: Instead of cutting off all military-to-military contacts -- the status quo that prevailed for most of 2010 -- Beijing is instead cutting off some contacts, and the specifics aren't even clear. This is the big prize the administration won by compromising on Taiwan's defense and setting up a headache for a future president. Hooray for "smart power."

View all comments (5) | Leave a comment

Occam's Tool| 9.27.11 @ 6:43PM

Taiwan is a good ally. Stop messing with them. If you have to do business with the Red Chinese, do what you have to do. But kissing the tail of vermin is never a good thing.

Clint| 9.27.11 @ 9:15PM

Israel Illegally Sold U.S. Weapons Tech To The Red Chinese, Jeopardizing Our Allies Taiwan & Japan.

Galumphry| 9.27.11 @ 7:10PM

A better title would have been the microscopic cost of not pissing off China. We made a pro-forma move that was not everything that Taiwan wanted but not zero either. China, in response, canceled a few mil-to-mil engagements, and postponed some, in a pro-forma kind of response that has become traditional and meaningless.

We had to save face by doing something, they had to save face by doing something, but both sides chose the path of least consequence. Come back in six months and it will be as if nothing had happened at all.

What you really wanted (come on, just admit it) was for the US to take the most pro-Taiwan stance possible by selling the advanced F-16s. That would have forced China to make a strong response to avoid losing face. Potentially that would have had to take the form of not just mil-to-mil engagements but economic reprisals as well. Economic reprisals would have hurt Obama's election chances even further, potentially making it possible for even a disaster of a candidate like Bachmann or Perry or some other Tea Party favorite to win.

Nice try.

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