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The Spectacle Blog
The new Suffolk Poll has Jon Huntsman, previously stuck in the low single digits, at 10%, ahead of Rick Perry at 8%. Mitt Romney has a commanding lead at 41%; Ron Paul is in second at 14%. The new ARG poll likewise shows Huntsman at 10%, though it doesn’t show Perry fading so dramatically; Perry’s in second at 13% in the ARG poll, behind Romney (30%) and ahead of Paul (12%).
Dave Weigel digs into the Suffolk data (his headline refers to this amusing interview) and concludes that Huntsman’s strategy of running to the left is succeeding in attracting moderates, but concludes:
The danger for [Huntsman] is that the more conservative non-Romneys stay out of the state and the margin between him and Huntsman is too large to make it look like a surprise showing for the former ambassador. One thing I’ve found on trips to New Hampshire is that some conservative voters, concerned with electability, are finding reasons to back Romney — he was, remember, the “conservative” option against McCain in this primary four years ago.
There’s a flipside to this: If Huntsman does do well enough in New Hampshire to keep his candidacy viable, it could paradoxically help Rick Perry. Let’s say Perry wins Iowa, and then Romney wins New Hampshire with Huntsman relatively close behind. (This is assuming, for the sake of argument, that Huntsman continues to gain ground and beats Paul as well as the rest of the field.) Huntsman still seems unlikely to win — he’s just alienated conservatives too much to build a broad Republican coalition (Huntsman’s record is actually fairly conservative, but he’s made the odd choice to de-emphasize this). In that scenario, the race still comes down to Romney vs. Perry, but if Huntsman’s in the mix, he’s peeling moderate voters away from Romney, to the benefit of Perry.
View all comments (6) | Leave a comment
More Blog Posts by John Tabin
http://spectator.org/blog/2011/09/22/huntsmans-new-hampshire-boomle
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Casey Abell| 9.22.11 @ 3:35PM
Please. Not everything can benefit Perry. If Huntsman ends up getting 10% in NH, it benefits nobody. Romney wins big and Huntsman is lost among the also-rans (along with Perry, probably). Romney doesn't even benefit because everybody expects him to win huge in NH.
Although I doubt Huntsman has any real effect on the race, he may be a tiny - and I mean TINY -plus for Romney right now. He makes Mitt look a little more conservative for the GOP primary electorate. Though I'm reluctant to give Huntsman even that much credit.
NotPropagandized| 9.22.11 @ 4:55PM
Looks like to me that the Establishment Republicans are cobbling together an alignment for Romney, who after being nominated if he is, will be weak. He'll be a weak, wimpy and whiny candidate compared to a real conservative. Too bad that conservatives feel so embarrassed by a disappointing articulator like Perry, because he's what the Dr. ordered. HermanCain would be the best, but....
Hook| 9.22.11 @ 5:20PM
I am puzzled as to how polls can vary so much.
Obama in my view has virtually no chance of winning.
Clint| 9.22.11 @ 6:28PM
We Are Being Set Up By The GOP Ruling Elite & Their Flunkie Stooges For A Mittens Romney Candidacy.
Rise Up In Rebellion.
Clint| 9.22.11 @ 6:41PM
The Tea Party Is Exposing Rick Perry, As The Faux Conservative He Is, As Our Tea Party Co-Favorite Dr.Ron Paul Moves Up To Take Over Second Place.
The Tea Party Rebellion Is Here.
Burt| 9.22.11 @ 8:46PM
Is John Tabin this clueless or intentionally hiding the fact that NH is an OPEN PRIMARY !
The fact that NH Left wingers like Clint (pretending to support the Jew hater/blame America for 9-11 /ear mark King/phony Ron Paul) will be registering as independents so they can screwing up the GOP by voting for the Obama triojan horse Huntsman or the LaJolla millionaire who fathered Obamacare !
The NH primary is meaningless and useless and GOP voters know it.
And Open primaries need to be eliminated !
Only the AS staff are intend on ignoring the facts that Dem radicals are rigging the polls just like the lefty wingers that vote for Ron Paul in these stupid straw polls !
For crying out loud the Lefties are promoting these strategies on the internet for any AS staffer to see!