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The Spectacle Blog
Well, it’s official: As most observers had expected, the Obama administration is denying the Taiwanese government’s request to buy 66 new F-16s, instead offering retrofits that will upgrade Taiwan’s existing fleet as a consolation prize.
I think I know why the administration is choosing this path. They worked hard to restore military-to-military contacts with the Chinese, a goal they achieved in January. If the F-16 sale went through, Beijing would almost certainly protest by cutting off mil-to-mil contacts (as the jargon goes) for at least a year, and the administration would lose the prize they’d just won.
The problem here is that if there’s going to be a contretemps with Beijing — and there will be sooner or later, as the Taiwan issue isn’t going away — this would have been an ideal time to get it out of the way, for reasons discussed in this space before. There’s some debate on how valuable mil-to-mil contacts are in any case (and, given that we’re talking about a category of activities that can include anything from meetings between generals to officers touring warships, the answer obviously depends on the specifics) but the leadership of the PLA is likely to change next year, so the project of cultivating mil-to-mil relations may have to start over anyway. A future president will have to deal with how to provide for Taiwan’s defenses in accordance with the Taiwan Relations Act, possibly after the F-16 line has shut down and the only options are more sophisticated planes that would anger the Mainland leadership even more, and possibly when the Chinese president is more apt to be confrontational than the soon-to-retire Hu Jintao is now. (Here’s a more detailed explanation of these considerations.)
Let’s hope that that future president can navigate this dilemma without getting anyone killed.
View all comments (7) | Leave a comment
More Blog Posts by John Tabin
http://spectator.org/blog/2011/09/21/on-taiwan-a-future-presidents
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Occam's Tool| 9.21.11 @ 8:56PM
On foreign policy: Obama=Paul=Spineless.
Clint| 9.21.11 @ 11:29PM
Israel Illegally Sold United States Weapons Technology To The Red Chinese, Jeopardizing Our Allies Taiwan & Japan.
You're A Screwball Israel Firster Fanatic Neo-Chickenhawk Traitor Bastard,Tool Job.
Ronald Reagan,
"Ron Paul is one of the outstanding leaders fighting for a stronger national defense. As a former Air Force officer, he knows well the needs of our armed forces, and he always puts them first. We need to keep him fighting for our country."
Zbigniew Mazurak| 9.22.11 @ 5:48AM
Guys? Let's stop this intra-GOP squabble and start campaigning against the real opponent: Obama.
He didn't just "make a future president's job harder", he has jeopardized Taiwan's nat-sec and its very existence as an independent country, selling it out to a repeated aggressor who has stationed 1200 ballistic missiles just opposite the Taiwanese Strait.
Pecos Pete| 9.22.11 @ 9:26AM
King O would prefer that Taiwan become a province of China. Problem solved.
Timothy L. Pennell| 9.22.11 @ 8:45AM
I don't see the problem.
How much do we OWE China? How many TRILLIONS?
I wonder if they're willing to risk all that money?
They have to understand, that, if they attack Taiwan? They FORFEIT that Money.
Imagine how our Debt Numbers will look, then.
Too Many Tims| 9.22.11 @ 12:23PM
The deciding factor for Obama had to be the jobs destroyed by this decision. He just can't not destroy jobs.
Strudwick Wickerwire| 9.22.11 @ 2:11PM
Obonehead the "Wonderful" has probably increased the hegemonic itch that will need to be scratched by China when they deem it expedient and the only military-to-military contacts that should be considered, are where to drop the munitions when necessary!!!