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I'm just now getting caught up with last night's Republican candidates' debate (CNN seldom wins out over Monday Night Football in my viewing selections) and have to say I was impressed by how well Michele Bachmann landed blows against Rick Perry.

Some have asked me why I think Bachmann has fallen off so sharply in many national polls since Perry entered the race. The latest CNN poll, for example, now has her in fourth place. Some surveys show her losing her lead in Iowa. But remember how rapid her rise was after that New Hampshire debate. Many Republicans were looking for a conservative/Tea Party candidate, didn't think Mitt Romney did the job, and weren't impressed with Tim Pawlenty as an alternative.

Bachmann burst on the scene and captured the mantle of these voters. But she didn't have their support nailed down, so she was quickly eclipsed by Perry. Much the same thing happened to Herman Cain, who had a rapid ascent after the South Carolina debate and subsequent fall. Could the same thing happen to Perry, even if there isn't a late entry like Sarah Palin? That's what last night's sustained assault on the Texas governor's conservative credentials by nearly the entire GOP field was designed to find out.

View all comments (16) | Leave a comment

Al Adab| 9.13.11 @ 1:47PM

What most concerns me Mr. Antle is our never ending ability to inflict damage on one another while ignoring the "clear and present" danger represented by the ideology in control of this government. By wounding each other our candidates are doing much to enhance the re-election chances of Mr. Obama.

Trinacria| 9.13.11 @ 2:01PM

Spot on, brother!

Trinacria| 9.13.11 @ 2:00PM

Mr. Antle,

Ms. Bachmann's performance during the debate was eclipsed by her shockingly irresponsible (and unsubstantiated) claim post-debate that the HPV vaccine resulted in mental retardation according to a Texas parent with whom she spoke after the debate. I don't pretend to have sufficient knowledge of the details surrounding the bill to comment on the merits of this particular legislation; however, I'm quite familiar with the medical science. The notion that this vaccine could cause or in any way contribute to mental retardation is biologically implausible and entirely without scientific merit. To level such a charge without a shred of scientific evidence and, perhaps more importantly, even the most basic understanding of the relevant biologic mechanisms is reckless and highly irresponsible. Moreover, it's evocative of the shameless political grandstanding and unsubstantiated accusations that characterize the very individuals Ms. Bachmann hopes to defeat. Regrettably, the frank lack of judgment she displayed in making this statement redounds to their benefit.

Sean| 9.13.11 @ 2:35PM

Research the side effects for yourself then. Mental retardation can be caused by many things such as loss of oxygen to the brain. Gardasil has been reported to cause heart failure and blood clots so it isn't totally unrealistic that someones child is now retarded from the vaccine.

Trinacria| 9.13.11 @ 4:06PM

Sean,

With all due respect, you really must check your facts before you enter into an argument with someone who knows substantially more about the subject than you.

Since you asked: In the Phase III randomized, double-blind, placebo controlled trials involving 29,323 subjects between the ages of 9 and 45, there was not a single report of an adverse event involving heart failure or blood clots (see the FDA approved product labeling).

A review of serious adverse events revealed no reports of heart failure and 2 cases of pulmonary embolism in both the Gardasil and placebo groups (0.01% and 0.02%, respectively); on a percentage basis, therefore, the risk of pulmonary embolism was twice as high IN THE PLACEBO GROUP.

Finally, in postmarketing surveillence studies, there have been no credible reports of either heart failure or blood clots. Not one. So statistically speaking, I have a greater chance of sleeping with both Selma Hayek and Monica Belluci (and I assure you that the odds are infinitessimally low) than a girl has of becoming mentally retarded as a result of Gardasil.

I hasten to note that this is not intended as a defense of Mr. Perry's position, which I believe is fully susceptible to attacks on moral and legal grounds. To claim harm in the absence of credible evidence, however, is simply irresponsible and, frankly, unnecessary.

Finally, and I say this again with all due respect - this is what happens when people who aren't qualified to make pronouncements on a particular subject accept as empirical evidence claims and statements which are scientifically inaccurate and unsupportable. Reading an article in People magazine in which Jenny McCarthy claims that a vaccination gave her son autism doesn't constitute scientific research, and using similar claims from a desperate Texan mom doesn't constitute sound presidential judgment.

Sean| 9.13.11 @ 4:35PM

http://www.cdc.gov/vaccinesafe.....dasil.html

The CDC reports that some people have reported blood clots. So yet again it isn't unrealistic. If a child goes in and gets a shot and then has a bloodclot, heart attack or GBS I will take the parents word for it that it was caused by the inoculation.

Every patient is an individual and should be treated medically as such. That is why government mandates are bad for freedom and for medicine.

Trinacria| 9.13.11 @ 5:06PM

The problem, Sean, is precisely your willingness to rely on the parent's assessment of what caused a particular event. I just showed you irrefutable evidence that when one performs a rigorous scientific study in a highly controlled setting, patients who received a PLACEBO were twice as likely to have a blood clot as those who received Gardasil. What that means is that if a parent brings a child to the ER with a blood clot at some unspecified time after receiving a Gardasil injection, one cannot attribute causality to Gardasil.

In fact - and here's the real indictment of your motives - the CDC site which you provide as a reference ACTUALLY MAKES THIS POINT IN THE VERY FIRST LINE:

"These data cannot be used to prove a causal association between the vaccine and the adverse event. The only association between the adverse event and vaccination is temporal, meaning that the adverse event occurred sometime after vaccination. Therefore, the adverse event may be coincidental or it may have been caused by vaccination, however we cannot make any conclusions that the events reported to VAERS were caused by the vaccine."

Additionally, and of equal importance, here's what the site says about blood clots:

BLOOD CLOTS
There have been some reports of blood clots in females after receiving Gardasil®. Most of these people had a known risk of getting blood clots, such as taking oral contraceptives (the birth control pill), smoking, obesity, and other risk factors.

So, in the end, what you've done is taken a small nugget of information and, lacking the requisite qualifications (or perhaps the desire) to properly interpret the data, twisted it to fit your preconceived position and represented it as fact.

I'm begging you, please stop; you're in over your head and you're embarrassing yourself!

Sean| 9.14.11 @ 9:04AM

Of course this isn't scientific data because the people are reporting it themselves. In fact there have been studies done that state the side effects for vaccines are often under reported by a factor of ten. Just because these are self reported by parents I am not going to discount them.

Now if even one person developed a blood clot or heart failure from the shot that caused brain damage then you are wrong that it can't cause retardation.

Bruce| 9.13.11 @ 2:35PM

Trinacria;
There was no bill. The reason Rick Perry is getting hit so hard is because implementing the shots was an executive order from the governor's office that was later overturned by the Texas congress. A bigger issue was that his former chief of staff was a lobbyist for Merck.

Trinacria| 9.13.11 @ 3:32PM

Understood. As I stated in my post, it was not my intent to debate the merits of Perry's decision (as my knowledge regarding the specifics on the process is quite limited), but rather to point out the shocking lapse in judgment displayed by Ms. Bachmann in claiming that Perry's decision resulted in a child becoming mentally retarded. I have no particular problem with Ms. Bachmann attacking Mr. Perry's position on moral or legal grounds; however, resorting to sensationalizing, grandstanding, and unsubstantiated accusations is neither necessary nor helpful to her cause (nor that of the Republican party).

I, for one, believe the President of the United States must have several key attributes, including wisdom, restraint, reason, and sound judgment, which includes the ability to look beyond one's next move and "see the big picture". In this regard, Ms. Bachmann failed miserably last night.

Paul McGrath| 9.13.11 @ 4:00PM

I agree Mr. Trinacria. It looked to me like she took a bunch of cheap shots, never giving Perry any benefit of the doubt. And of course, with the help of the fulsome Blitzer, they spent an inordinate amount of time on what is truly, from a national standpoint, an issue of little consequence.

Instead of standing out from the other pols, Bachmann has instead simply proved herself to be one, holding her finger to the wind and steering in that direction. She gained no ground last night, and as far as I'm concerned, I'm done with her.

Butch| 9.13.11 @ 4:29PM

Paul, I thought of Bachmann as Joan of Arc rallying the Tea Party during Obamacare. However, I'm afraid I'm going to have to join you.

An MD on these threads said that HPV was responsible for 70 percent of cervical cancers, and apparently it's a pretty serious problem in Texas.

Bachmann had to have known that there was an opt-out provision, so "forced" is an inappropriate verb and even misleading to those watching who were unaware of the issue. Then Palin piled on and talked about "crony capitalism," which is what Obama/Immelt practice.

Ms. Bachmann was basically accusing Perry of accepting a bribe--a crime--without a shard of evidence presented that that is the case. I believe that kind of shooting from the hip is irresponsible, so I'm pretty much through with her, unfortunately, because I like her.

That leaves the executive order thing. Perry has acknowleged a mistake of means, without apologizing for the ends he sought. There was no force given the opt-out. I'm about as conservative as you get, but its case closed for me on the whole issue unless someone provides some evidence that a preventative measure was not required in this case or that Perry accepted a bribe.

Sean| 9.13.11 @ 4:38PM

The governor called it mandatory and most parents do not know there is an opt out. The government doesn't go out of their way to tell you or make it easy for you to do. The parent will get a note from the school telling them their child needs this shot and that is that.

HPV is not a huge problem in Texas. About 3000 people die from it a year in the US. It can be treated easily if you go through normal checkups.

Paul McGrath| 9.13.11 @ 4:11PM

Here is something that we all must remember. The Republican candidate, whoever it is, is going to come under an almost unbelievable attack by the left in the months leading up to the election. Obama can't run on his record--he literally has nothing--so the left instead will concentrate on destroying the Republican candidate. With the help of the media, every gaffe, every mistake, every mistatement, every pecadillo--in short, everything--will be put under a microscope and examined ruthlessly.

To withstand this, the Republican candidate is going to have to have a very thick skin, is going to be able to think on his feet and quickly, and is going to have to be able to discuss intelligently--with passion but with grace--every issue out there.

By these standards, only two Republicans pass the test: Gingrich and Romney. Perry is still a question mark. Bachmann is a failure.

Ken (Old Texican)| 9.13.11 @ 4:37PM

Folks,
unless Sarah steps in, Perry is simply our best.

Romney is a nice man.
Ms. Bachman is a nice lady.
Santorum is a bore.
Gingrich is a multiple adulteror.
Ron Paul lost reality somewhere back there.

Obama wants to make you a serf.

Any questions?

Paul McGrath| 9.13.11 @ 5:01PM

The question, Ken, is which one is most likely to defeat Obama, and unless Perry becomes much more polished, real soon, it ain't gonna be him.

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More Blog Posts by W. James Antle, III

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