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Are The Red Sox Imploding?

By Aaron Goldstein on 9.13.11 @ 11:15AM

The Boston Red Sox got off to a most inauspicious start in 2011 by losing their first six games of the season. On April 15th, their record stood at 2-10.

But then for the next 4½ months, the Red Sox played like the team they were expected to be (and I expected them to be) and played on all eight cylinders. The Red Sox had a 80-42 record over this period with offensive contributions from David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, Adrian Gonzalez and a breakout season for Jacoby Ellsbury. The Bosox were basically winning two out of every three games they played. That usually is sufficient to reach the playoffs.

However, the Sox play in the ultra-competitive American League East and now have the misfortune to hit a September swoon. Well, to be precise, their skid began exactly two weeks ago on August 30th when they hosted - who else? - the New York Yankees at Fenway Park. Prior to the start of that series with the Bronx Bombers, the Red Sox had a 1½ game lead on the Yankees in the AL East. The Yankees took two out of three games and overtook first place in the AL East. However, the Red Sox still led the AL Wild Card by a large margin. As recently as September 3rd, the Bosox had a nine game lead on the Tampa Bay Rays for the Wild Card spot. But over the weekend, the Red Sox were swept by the Rays in Tampa Bay. The Rays now stand only three games back of the Red Sox in the AL Wild Card standings. In all since August 30th, the Red Sox have gone 3-11 in that time and are in the midst of a five game losing streak.

Yesterday, the Red Sox had their first day off since August 29th, the day before all this madness started. Hopefully, the respite will give them a chance to reboot and regroup. Tonight, they begin a two-game series at Fenway with the Toronto Blue Jays. Knuckleballer Tim Wakefield will make his 8th attempt to win his 200th big league game.

Then the Tampa Bay Rays come into Fenway for a four-game series on Thursday evening. I will be attending the Friday night game for my birthday. It might very well be the most crucial game of the entire 2011 season. Hopefully, I can celebrate with a Red Sox win.

In the event, however, the Red Sox do not make the playoffs, I predict that manager Terry Francona will be fired. I am not saying it would be a wise decision but it would not surprise me if it were to happen. Yes, Tito led the team to their first World Series title in 86 years back in 2004 and then another World Series title three years later. But it is a question of "What have you done for me lately?" It will be two straight years they don't make the post-season and this year would represent a spectacular collapse.

The Red Sox expect to win the World Series every year. Well, you can't win the World Series if you don't reach the playoffs. Under those circumstances heads will roll. From their way of thinking, a shock to the system might be in order and nothing would be more shocking than if the Red Sox were to dismiss Francona after eight years of service.

View all comments (9) | Leave a comment

james wilson| 9.13.11 @ 12:34PM

Not going to happen. Francoma is responsible for the Red Sox out-performing after their bad start, but nobody could keep the turkey away from the chopping block for 162 games. The one who should be let go and won't be is Epstein, of the Drew, Crawford, Lackey syndrome--never met a mediocre player in decline he didn't like. The man in the gorilla suit has cultivated the father-son thing with his owner.

Aaron Goldstein| 9.13.11 @ 12:54PM

I agree with you regarding Drew and Lackey. Neither were worth the money for which Theo signed them although Drew did have an exceptional post-season in both '07 and '08. However, while I think Crawford is having a mediocre season he is far from a mediocre player. Even great players have so-so seasons. In Crawford's case, he gets his hits when they have mattered most.

Casey Abell| 9.13.11 @ 12:44PM

Francona is probably safe. But the problem with the Sox is simple: an inconsistent starting rotation. Lester and (a hopefully healthy) Beckett are usually reliable, but afterwards it gets real dicey real fast. Boston ranks ninth in the league in starters' ERA, and they can't blame all of it on their ballpark.

I still think the Sox will prevail, if only because they've still got the three-game lead. But the postseason might be brief for them if the rotation doesn't get better.

Aaron Goldstein| 9.13.11 @ 12:59PM

I hope you are right. Yet it wouldn't surprise me in the least if Francona is fired if they don't make the post-season.

i agree that it's Beckett and Lester/Pray for Rain to Fester. It is amazing the Sox have come as far as they have with the rotation they have. They haven't had Buchholz and Dice-K for the most of the year and Wakefield hasn't won a game in two months. Meanwhile, Andrew Miller is still learning how to be a big league pitcher. With this in mind, let's hope Beckett's ankle holds up. Perhaps he will be the Curt Schilling of 2011.

Steve A| 9.13.11 @ 1:00PM

I don't know what will happen down the stretch but if the Sox continue to give the ball to Lackey they deserve to be out. I don't care what they pay the guy, he is just simply done. You would be better off letting Beckett throw left handed for Lackey's start.

Aaron Goldstein| 9.13.11 @ 1:17PM

Lackey's 6.30 ERA certainly isn't confidence inspiring. It is worth noting that Lackey led the AL in ERA (3.01) back in 2007 when he was with the Angels. Yet Lackey did have a good stretch in July and August where he was giving the club six innings and not giving up more than three or four runs a game. That said he isn't worth A.J. Burnett money. For that matter, A.J. Burnett isn't worth A.J. Burnett money.

Sparky| 9.13.11 @ 3:21PM

Injuries to a host of key players and underperformance by Crawford and Lackey should let Francona off the hook if Boston stays mired in this slump.

By the way, I am hopeful that you will stop misusing the word "hopefully."

Go Tigers!

Aaron Goldstein| 9.13.11 @ 5:18PM

Do you want me to pledge to "change" my use of the word "hope"?

Rich Davis| 9.13.11 @ 8:06PM

The BoSox are going to come out of this slump and win the whole thing. They are just taking a late season break so they can get ready for the playoffs. I KNOW that we're going to win it all. I keep the faith.