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The Spectacle Blog
Last night’s debate sketched out the ground that fight for the nomination will be fought on. Unless something unexpected shakes the race up (the entry of another candidate is the most obvious possibility), this is a race between Rick Perry and Mitt Romney. (Michele Bachmann has sunk in the polls and shed top staffers since Perry entered the race and, as she faded into the background last night, looked unlikely to recover.)
Perry’s case involves running to the right and — with the lower-tier candidates often backing him up — attacking Romney. Perry went after Romney with gusto, calling the Massachusetts health care plan “a great opportunity for us as a people to see what will not work” and telling Romney that “Michael Dukakis created jobs three times faster than you did, Mitt.” (Perry is clearly an enthusiastic brawler; when Ron Paul took a shot at him, he ignored the conventional “don’t punch down” wisdom and went ahead and took a shot back.)
Romney’s case is an electability case: He argues that Perry will turn off general election voters. In this debate it was about Social Security: “Our nominee has to be someone who isn’t committed to abolishing Social Security, but who is committed to saving Social Security,” said Romney. Romney was misstating Perry’s position, but Perry didn’t do a great job of correcting him, missing the opportunity to emphasize that he opposes changes to the system that will affect current beneficiaries. The Romney campaign sent out its spin that this means Perry can’t win the presidency.
Look for this pattern to be repeated on other issues. There are plenty of areas where Perry can attack Romney from the right (particularly the numerous issues where Romney has changed his position over the years), and plenty of areas where Romney can argue that Perry will have general election liabilities.
Interestingly, Jon Huntsman sent out a release today attacking Romney from the left, arguing that he and Perry are “two peas in a pod” on Social Security. I’m sure this will please Huntsman’s base, which consists of the reporters on his campaign bus, but it’s a gift to Romney. The difficulty of arguing a rival is too far right to be electable is that, done wrong, it can make you seem too far left to be acceptable to Republicans. Huntsman’s longshot strategy of targeting New Hampshire independents establishes an ideological guardrail that helps protect Romney from that trap. To a certain extent, this holds on the right, too: If Perry is such an extremist, a voter might wonder, why are Michele Bachmann and Rick Santorum attacking him for being a squish? That only works to Perry’s advantage if the attacks from the right don’t resonate too deeply, of course. But for now, the dynamics of the broader field seem to reinforce rather than challenge the salience of the Perry vs. Romney fight.
View all comments (9) | Leave a comment
More Blog Posts by John Tabin
http://spectator.org/blog/2011/09/08/the-shape-of-the-perry-vs-romn
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Hook| 9.8.11 @ 3:08PM
Amusing comment, Mr Tabin, on Huntsman's people being reporters on campaign bus.
I think the economy will deteriorate further and the media will be left with criticizing and making fun of Republicans for attending church, and not believing in man made global warming. They will make a huge deal out of evolution. I don't think those arguments will fly when people are suffering all over and the wars are going badly. Pulling down to 300 in Iraq is a mistake in my view.
Jack in Wi.| 9.8.11 @ 6:28PM
I remember the last election. Guliannni was supposed to cruise to the nomination. When he sank, the talk radio gang tried to push Romney. Well I didn't want McCain or Romney. I thought McCain was all washed up when he ran out of money. I am of course for Ron Paul. He has the largest group, by far, of fervent supporters. He has the ideas that everyone else on stage is trying to steal. He also can raise a huge amount of cash. Those are all things that win primary elections. I don't think 2 old con men like Romney and Perry flip flopping around, have anything locked up.
Clint| 9.8.11 @ 3:13PM
We Are Being Set Up By The Ruling Elite And Their Media Apparatchiks For Their Romney/Perry Agenda.
This Is Why There Is A Tea Party Rebellion.
Rise Up In Rebellion.
MikeN| 9.8.11 @ 3:14PM
I don't think this will be Romney vs Perry. It may turn into Perry vs Huntsman or Perry vs Paul or someone else. Romney has been running a frontrunner campaign, and as we saw from Howard Dean, once that fails, you are left with nothing. Romney will be out after a month or so. Who is left? Bob Dole lost primaries to Steve Forbes after he seemed to have things wrapped up, with Republicans wanting to push growth over a balanced budget. Huntsman has the best tax plan. Or perhaps it will be Paul and isolationism. Or maybe Herman Cain or Santorum will move up.
Ken (Old Texican)| 9.8.11 @ 5:10PM
Mike,
only Perry or Sarah will kick butt and call names.
All the other candidates are merely politicians with their finger in the wind.
I honestly believe that only if Perry stumbles will Sarah don her armor and enter the race.
So far, Governor Perry has done just fine.
Occam's Tool| 9.8.11 @ 5:27PM
A comment on ApPauling manners:
September 8, 2011, - 6:06 am
HILARIOUS Video: Drunk Driving PaulNut Lectures Police on Constitution
By Debbie Schlussel
This obnoxious Ron Paul supporter (or as we more accurately call ‘em, PaulNuts) is sooooo typical. Gets stopped by Gallatin County, Montana sheriff’s deputies and lectures ‘em about the Constitution and the First Amendment. Oh, and he makes sure we know who he’s supporting for Prez . . . several times. I give a lot of credit to photogenic Deputy Sheriff Doug Lieurance, who has a good sense of humor through it all. Nice catch and great narration by YouTuber, “Rividude.” Gotta watch. . .
Go to Debbie Schlussel's site and ROFL.
Clint| 9.8.11 @ 5:51PM
New Hampshire Tea Party Coalition :
"Texas Enterprise Fund – basically, Rick Perry’s slush fund for politically connected insiders, another WASTE of your tax dollars. Gave $20 Million to Country Wide Financial which went bankrupt. Many company executives who get access to this slush fund are – you guessed it – Perry contributors. Rick Perry has a massive cronyism problem. "
Mike| 9.8.11 @ 9:04PM
Excuse me while I stall for time to figure out how to disavow the parts of the President's job proposal that were crafted by Republicans
yisong| 10.27.11 @ 2:26AM
Discussion Bearing failure of general conditions
The gradual expansion of the surface spalling, and often extended to the deep, forming deep peeling. Contact fatigue spalling is a failure of deep fatigue source. http://www.1stbearing.com