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The Spectacle Blog
Demographic changes have made it much more difficult for Republicans to win national elections. In California, the GOP hasn’t won a Senate seat since 1988, and has no discernable prospects for winning there anytime soon. Similarly, at the presidential level, California is impenetrably blue.
Of course, what explains the leftward political tilt in formerly Republican states such as California is immigration, both domestic and Hispanic. Political analyst extraordinaire Larry Sabato confirms this change in today’s Wall Street Journal.
Seven “super swing states with 85 electoral [votes] will determine which party gets to the magic number of 270 electoral votes,” Sabato writes.
The seven states are notable because most of them (five by my count) have been transformed politically by domestic in-migration from other states, as well as Hispanic immigration from Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean.
For example, Colorado (9), Florida (29), Nevada (6), and Virginia (13) have all become key battleground states thanks to Hispanic immigrants. These same four states (plus New Hampshire (4)) also have swung politically as new (and often more liberal) residents move there.
Indeed, New Hampshire has become more hospitable to the Dems because of an influx of residents from neighboring Taxachusetts. The northern Virginia suburbs, likewise, have trended leftward politically, thanks to a growing workforce dominated by younger people who move to Washington to work for and with the government.
The other two key battleground states, Ohio (18) and Iowa (6), do not seem to have been appreciably altered politically by immigration.
There is, however, one glimmer of hope for Republicans. According to Sabato,
The GOP has gotten a quiet advantage through the redistricting following the 2010 Census. The Republican nominee could gain about a half-dozen net electors from the transfer of House seats —and thus electoral votes — from the northern Frostbelt to the southern and western Sunbelt.
Put another way, the Democrats can no longer win just by adding Ohio to John Kerry’s 2004 total. The bleeding of electoral votes from Democratic states would leave him six short of 270.
Ohio, in fact, has lost two electoral votes. Texas, meanwhile, has gained four electoral votes; Georgia and South Carolina have picked up one a piece.
Edited for accuracy and grammar.
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More Blog Posts by John R. Guardiano
http://spectator.org/blog/2011/09/06/the-political-map-immigration
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rssg| 9.6.11 @ 7:00PM
Mass immigration is a function of LIBERAL philosophy. The idea that the United States is merely "an idea" and not an historic, geogrphic country, full of people who have been here for generations and even hundreds of years.
High immigration of 3rd worlders - namely Mexicans and Muslims will change the USA immeasurably...........and for the worse.
High immigration is just another symptom of "white guilt". This nation needs to deport illegal aliens and reduce legal immigration, for the next ten years. With this sick economy, what's the reason not to?
Ammo Guy| 9.7.11 @ 9:31AM
Yeah, the "white guilt" syndrome (WGS) is an interesting phenomenon that I observed first hand when I lived in eastern Iowa in the late 1980s. Apparently the good citizens of Dubuque felt they were missing out on the ostensible "benefits" of a "diverse" society so they actually attempted to import people of color to their fair city from areas that had a "surplus" of such individuals. I can remember some of the TV interviews of those afflicted with WGS - their faith in diversity and their naiveté concerning the unintended consequences of their good intentions was both amusing and disturbing at the same time. As I recall, the city council appropriated funds for an outreach program that would also defray the moving expenses of those so recruited. Not sure how this whole program turned out since the 2000 census showed the city was still more than 96% white, but I'm sure everyone felt better about themselves because they cared and, after all, isn't that all that really matters?
Occam's Tool| 9.6.11 @ 8:41PM
Dhimmicrats and Paulbots. Vermin and Scum.
Clint| 9.7.11 @ 1:00AM
Screwball Israel Firster Neo-Chickenhawk Coward Traitor Bastard, Tool Job & Jonathan Pollard, Same Thing.
Occam's Tool| 9.6.11 @ 10:15PM
Tracking--apparently Ed Rollins has left the day to day running of Michele's campaign; so has her number 2. This might mean the Queenbee, Sarah will be coming. If so, bye-bye, Ronnie!
Clint| 9.7.11 @ 1:10AM
Head Case Israel Firster Fanatic Tool Job Plays His Candidate Du Jour Game.
We Tea Party Patriots Welcome Our Tea Party Co-Favorite Sarah Palin To Run With Our Tea Party Co-Favorite Presidential Candidate Dr.Ron Paul And Our Tea Party Candidate Michele Bachmann.
The Tea Party Rebellion Is Here.
Rise Up In Rebellion.
burt| 9.6.11 @ 10:37PM
John at AS must be the only fool who does not know that larry Sabato is a Dem party push poll scam artist and overall liar .
Larry hid his employment with Webb and hit every single TV show smearing Sen Allen as a supposed unbaised pollster!
He was latter outed as a Web operative !
In 2004 ,this same Dem con artist predictng Bush poll figures were too low to win re-election !
Mark J. Goluskin | 9.7.11 @ 1:35AM
There is something that can trump this poli sci stuff. A really crappy economy. If we are in the same basic economic state come November 2012, as long as most people have relative confidence in the Republican nominee, it can and wil be a GOP landslide. And that will not just happen at the presidential level. It will end up in areas of the United States that have not been nessesarily hospitable to Republicans. Oh, even in Blue California, the Dear Leader is only pulling a 50% approval and 43% disaproval. Think that will hold in 2012 if the Cali economy still sucks along with the national economy?
Ali| 9.7.11 @ 8:34AM
I live in Virginia. I'm an immigrant from Michigan and a lifelong Democrat but I won't vote for a candidate who supports amnesty for illegal aliens. Also, the implication that Hispanics are important voters because they live in swing states is misleading. While illegal aliens count as "population" for seats in Congress and electoral votes, they're not themselves able to vote and since much of the growth in Virginia is due to illegal immigration...well, we who do vote get much more of a say.
R Martin| 9.7.11 @ 11:59AM
Only for now. All those illegal immigrants who do not vote are producing legal offspring who will vote in due course. And those offspring are inculcated with a leftist political philosophy and an expectation of government handouts. This trend is changing our country, our society and our politics irretriveably, and it's changing it not for better but for worse.
Brittanicus| 9.7.11 @ 5:59PM
There are mild skirmishes between Rick Perry and Mitt Romney's race to the White House, with other contenders who seem to be slipping behind, except for Michelle Bachmann. This great lady and Herman Cain could change the poorly legislated course of this country. Both have sincere involvement in stopping the illegal alien invasion. Both Tea Partier’s have excellent grades from NumbersUSA to halt the illegal alien occupation. Perry specifically—not so much with Romney with a poor record on illegal immigration None of America's problems will fade away if the Acorn group start spitting out their depraved lies and start their crusade again of intimidation and fraud as they have in the past. Do we remember ACORN! (Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now) Of course we do? Has the criminal enterprise gone for good? No!
Even though they decided to disband the organization and file for bankruptcy, they are back under new business names Despite the November 2010 bankruptcy filing, and ACORN continues to operate. Project Vote and ACORN Housing, renamed Affordable Housing Centers of America, are still is business. According to "Subversion Inc.," ACORN officials openly acknowledge the network is restructuring and will re-emerge soon in an effort to help re-elect President Obama in 2012. Obama has had an intimate and long-term association with the Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now (Acorn), the largest radical group in the United States. The Motor Voter law was correctly identified as a catalyst of vote fraud and the crowning glory of ACORN. Absentee Ballots must be carefully scrutinized for forged signatures, as the Electoral process could end up a disaster.
You can uncover the ugly facts by just typing into Google "ROTTENACORN" May be most Americans are oblivious to this, but according to RottenAcorn, "Before “subprime” became a household word, ACORN waded into the mortgage market, supporting policies that helped lay the groundwork for the catastrophic lending collapse of 2008. Working with another activist group, the Center for Responsible Lending, ACORN lobbied legislators and banks to ensure that any person, regardless of credit history, income, or assets, would qualify for a mortgage. They mastered the art of pressuring banks – often through radical and controversial methods – to provide subprime loans to all comers. It was many of these “toxic” loans that defaulted and sparked the subprime mortgage crisis." It's a fact that by pressuring the banks to allow mortgages to the lowest of income earners and illegal aliens, the whole real estate industry came crashing down; leading to the largest foreclosure rate since the Savings and loans debacle.
ACORN's state chapters now operate under assumed names such as Alliance of Californians for Community Empowerment, New York Communities for Change, Missourians Organizing for Reform and Empowerment, Texas Organizing Project and Action United (Pennsylvania). Acorn made a "Mockery" of every citizen’s electoral vote, using felons to canvass for votes."Judicial Watch" recently uncovered massive voter fraud by ACORN in Colorado, and ACORN settled a racketeering lawsuit in Ohio out of court last year and agreed to depart the state. After so many registration violations in Missouri (1986-2004 and 2008); Arkansas (1998); Indiana (2008); Florida (2009); Michigan (2004-2008); Minnesota (2008; New Mexico (2004-2008); Nevada (2004, 2008 and 2009); Ohio (2008); Pennsylvania (2004, 2008 and 2009); Texas (2008); Virginia (2004); Wisconsin (2004 and 2008).
Within the present Democratic with Liberal party there is evidence on many occasions, that whoever votes--Legal or illegal doesn't matter.
Our only chance to survive this criminal enterprise that I foresee in even greater fraudulent events in 2011 is for the federal government to oversee the voting process or issue to every US citizen a national ID card.
Every State and county district attorneys must be made to understand that registration and voting by non-citizens are serious offenses against the fundamental principles of our dem-ocratic system and that such violations must be prosecuted.
1. The Dept of Justice must conduct an assessment of all state Drivers License Bureaus to establish which ones have policies in consigned preventing non-citizens who apply for driver's licenses from register¬ing to vote and then file enforcement measures against any state that refuses to conform to this constraint.
2. The voter registration card should not be officially recognized to obtain a driver's license or employment.
3. Make it known through TV, radio or Internet that is a violation of both state and federal law for migrants or over stay immigrants who are not citizens to vote in state and federal elections. These violations in effect disenfranchise legiti¬mate voters whose votes are watered down, and they must be reduced.
4.. Election officers have an commitment not only to impose those laws, but also to execute registra¬tion and election actions that do not allow those laws to be bypassed or disregarded--anything less encourages disdain for the laws and the people’s election process. Laidback enforcement of electoral laws permits persons who have not entered on American soil unlawfully. Foreign nationals, felons could potentially alter the conclusion of any closely contested races that influence how “The People” are governed.
My vote is going to whoever is the frontrunner of the Tea Party, as well as my family, as both Democrats and Democrats has their own agenda's. Each administration has refused to build the real double fence or enforce the 1986 Immigration Control and reform act. The TEA PARTY will improve on both of these "Rules of Law" and stick like glue to the contents of the U.S. Constitution. As In Article IV, Section 4. that states: The United States shall guarantee to every State in this Union a Republican Form of Government, and shall protect each of them against Invasion; and on Application of the Legislature, or of the Executive (when the Legislature cannot be convened) against domestic Violence.
The flood of illegal workers almost certainly constitutes an invasion. The TEA PARTY will table any form of Amnesty or Immigration Reform and will apply the statutes in the 1986 Simpson/Mazzoli with strict enforcement according to the bill. Any Sanctuary City or State ordinances designed to cater to illegal aliens, will lose federal funding and expect ICE sweeps in the future. E-Verify and "Secure Communities" will no longer be a voluntary measure, but applied as a mandate to every state. The TEA PARTY will amend the 14th Amendment, so 300.000 children of illegal aliens can no longer get a foothold in America, to ransack the people's welfare programs and public assistance.
All new laws will be designed to stop economic illegal aliens from the financial avalanche that is happening now, which includes CHAIN MIGRATION. All visas will be decided on the skills and qualifications of the person who wishes to immigrate and unwelcome illegal newcomers will be punished harshly for entry. Only the TEA PARTY will enforce our laws, as signified in the living US Constitution. The $113 Billion dollars illegally collected by the IRS to benefit illegal aliens must be ended for good and not be further spiraling out of control because each government refuses to enforce the laws.
As a postscript, that tomorrow President Obama is going to offer a speech on jobs in construction specifically repairing Bridges and highways. We must insure illegal aliens are not employed by criminal contractors, who have encourages this type of violation of our laws. Be a “whistleblower” if you find individuals, who seem suspicious in your occupation and inform ICE or local police Department. Read all the incendiary newspaper and media articles at “American Patrol” that sends the Liberal propaganda activists slinking in dark corners. Lastly, learn of the rot that has propagated in Washington and individual States at “Judicial Watch.”
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