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The Spectacle Blog
The Washington Post reports on the long-term demographic challenge facing the GOP: “Minorities are the majority in 22 of the 100 largest U.S. metropolitan regions,” the Post observes.
This matters, of course, because minorities, far more so than white voters, are inclined to vote Democrat. And this helps to explain why states such as California, which voted for Ronald Reagan four times, are now irretrievably Democrat.
States such as Virginia, meanwhile, can no longer be counted on to vote Republican in presidential elections. Indeed, after voting Democrat in 2008 for the first time since 1964, Virginia is now considered a “tossup state.”
According to the Post,
Rep. Gerald E. Connolly (D-Va.) said the growth in racial and ethnic minorities has helped transform places such as Fairfax from reliably moderate Republican domains to ones where Democrats control the Board of Supervisors and that are represented in Congress and the General Assembly by Democrats.
‘You’re going to start seeing that demographic impact politically in the outer suburbs’ more and more, he predicted.
What’s next to fall, Texas? The GOP had better hope not: if the GOP loses Texas, it will become a permanent minority party, incapable of winning the White House except in a rare, fluke election. Yet, three of the 22 minority-dominant metro regions — McAllen, El Paso and Houston — are in Texas.
Demography is not necessarily destiny: People’s voting habits can and do change based on changes in their economic status, education, political campaigns, and, significantly, life experience. The experience of marrying and raising children, for instance, can be especially transformative politically.
But demography (and culture) also can be surprisingly stubborn and resistant to change. Blacks and Jews, for instance, continue to vote Democrat in large numbers, even when, it seems, liberal pols betray them.
Still, politics is never stagnant; it is always fluid and in flux. It will be interesting to see how minority voting patterns evolve and develop in the coming years. One thing’s for sure: the Republicans have their work cut out for them.
View all comments (58) | Leave a comment
More Blog Posts by John R. Guardiano
http://spectator.org/blog/2011/09/01/the-demographic-ghost-that-hau
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Wayne | 9.1.11 @ 12:04PM
I think a strong vibrant economy will turn many a member of a minority in Republicans. The Democrats prey on the poor.
What the GOP should not do, in my opinion, is pander to minorities as special interests. That would be playing the same corrupt political game the democrats play. One should not be fishing for votes with class and citizen warfare.
Quartermaster| 9.2.11 @ 6:32AM
The GOP also needs to get serous about ending illegal immigration as well. The GOP and Chamber of Commerce have been engaging in self defeating behavior on that score, as well as supporting law breaking.
Quartermaster| 9.2.11 @ 6:32AM
The GOP also needs to get serous about ending illegal immigration as well. The GOP and Chamber of Commerce have been engaging in self defeating behavior on that score, as well as supporting law breaking.
emo| 12.2.11 @ 10:20PM
"I think a strong vibrant economy will turn many a member of a minority in Republicans. The Democrats prey on the poor.""
Really??? because that hasnt been the case among blacks. In fact wealthy blacks are just as liberal and leftist as poor blacks. Only difference is they vote where as poor blacks dont
emo| 12.20.11 @ 11:38PM
Problem is that over the past 50 or so years, blacks have become much much more affluent, yet their support for the Democrat party has increased, not decreased
soren| 9.1.11 @ 12:05PM
Guardiano, you are a pussy... don't fall for their hegelian bullshit.
soren| 9.1.11 @ 12:07PM
"One thing's for sure: the Republicans have their work cut out for them."
BTW, my point is that these "appeals" are always made in a Beta way... and it makes Republicans look weak... which is counter productive...
Sorry, but these minority groups need whites and Republicans more than the other way around...
Dread| 9.4.11 @ 12:15AM
"Sorry, but these minority groups need whites and Republicans more than the other way around..."
Well Soren, I doubt you and the GOP will win many converts over, with that last statement of yours. See, if any minority group does align themselves with the whites, are you under any notion they will stay loyal to you and whites in general; due to your wonderful considerations of them? You will be treated in kind. So you might want to temper you thoughts with humane considerations. Every thing is replaceable, and everyone. One only needs to study history, and know these boasts are based in fear of the opposite.
Casey Abell| 9.1.11 @ 12:21PM
Perry pulled 38% of the Hisspanic vote in his last governor's run. Okay, he had a weak opponent who lost badly. But the Hispanic vote in TX is trending Repub and may well go majority GOP over the next couple decades.
Guardino makes the obvious mistake of thinking "African-American" whenever he sees "minority." I agree the black vote is completely beyond the GOP's reach and has been for decades. But other minorities are far from monolithic and offer much more opprotunity for the Repubs.
Guardino might want to consider that without the Cuban-American vote in Florida, Al Gore would have won the 2000 election. Pretty easy, in fact.
franke| 9.1.11 @ 8:17PM
Yes, and GW Bush did great with Hispanics as well. NO THANKS!
The only answer is Comprehensive Immigration Reform: Enforce the law and send them home. Legal Hispanics are in favor of this as well.
Mike w| 9.1.11 @ 8:48PM
Texas is screwed. Having lived down and having returned there often, the place is over run by hispanics, many illegal, and if 38 percent is the best you can get then you are really screwed.
Casey Abell| 9.2.11 @ 2:53PM
Yeah, Texas is so screwed that liberals are ripping their hair out trying to make the state look bad. They're not succeeding, as the state gains in political and economic clout...
http://www.brookings.edu/opini....._frey.aspx
emo| 12.2.11 @ 10:21PM
Perry got 38% of the hispanic vote in 2010 and that is a good sign???? GW Bush got 50% in 1998.
Casey Abell| 9.1.11 @ 12:22PM
Jeez, it's the "Hispanic" vote, of course. No pun intended.
Clint| 9.1.11 @ 6:35PM
Associated Press-GfK poll: Ron Paul the most favorable GOP candidate
A new national poll of the general population has revealed that top tier candidate Ron Paul is the most favorable choice in the Republican Presidential nomination race.
Ron Paul 37% favorable vs 36% unfavorable = +1
Mitt Romney 39% favorable vs 41% unfavorable = -2
Rick Perry 33% favorable vs 36% unfavorable = -3
Michele Bachmann 35% favorable vs 43% unfavorable = -8
franke| 9.1.11 @ 8:22PM
The only numbers that matter:
From Americans for Legal Immigration:
Bachmann B+
Romney D-
Perry D-
Paul D-
Voting for any of these other Immigration squishes and traitors makes the Demographic prophecy true.
Clint| 9.2.11 @ 6:24AM
Dr.Ron Paul,On The Issues:
If economy were good, there’d be no immigration problem. (Dec 2007)
Amend Constitution to remove aliens’ birthright citizenship. (Dec 2007)
Those who attack bilingualism are jealous & feel inferior. (Dec 2007)
No amnesty, but impractical to round up 12 million illegals. (Sep 2007)
Immigration problem is consequence of welfare state. (Sep 2007)
No amnesty, but border fence isn’t so important. (Jun 2007)
We subsidize illegal immigration, so we get more. (Jun 2007)
Keep rule barring immigrants from running for president. (May 2007)
End all incentives and amnesty for illegal immigrants. (Jan 2006)
Voted YES on building a fence along the Mexican border. (Sep 2006)
Voted YES on preventing tipping off Mexicans about Minuteman Project. (Jun 2006)
Voted YES on reporting illegal aliens who receive hospital treatment. (May 2004)
Voted YES on extending Immigrant Residency rules. (May 2001)
Voted YES on more immigrant visas for skilled workers. (Sep 1998)
Sponsored bill banning student visas from terrorist nations. (Jan 2003)
Rated 100% by FAIR, indicating a voting record restricting immigration. (Dec 2003)
Rated 83% by USBC, indicating a sealed-border stance. (Dec 2006)
Government services in English only. (Mar 2008)
Rated C by the ALI, indicating an acceptably anti-amnesty stance. (Nov 2010)
Declare English as the official language of the US. (Feb 2007)
Ken (Old Texican)| 9.1.11 @ 12:50PM
The "demography" I'm concerned with is immigrants from 'blue' States moving here.
In any restarant I walk into these days I hear "You sound like Forest Gump."
My response has become..." I don't talk funny...YOU talk funny...Hell, I'm FROM here."
Then I smile and tell them to kiss my arse on their way back to their communist hell-holes.
Al Adab| 9.1.11 @ 1:04PM
Ya'll got that right Ken.
Occam's Tool| 9.1.11 @ 1:31PM
I'd say---"you talk like Forrest Gump. I love Forrest! How the Hell Are 'Ya Ken! Meet The Boss, Ike and 'Beka.
Kids, this is one of the nicest men you will ever meet!
Not ALL Yankees are a-holes. Just most of us.
Al Adab| 9.1.11 @ 1:50PM
Many Yankees were smart enough to leave and find life beyond the Bos-Wash corridor. Problem is between that area and Calif, most of the population ( that is voters) lives.
Le Cracquere| 9.1.11 @ 9:15PM
That's more syllables than I waste on them: your patience does you credit, sir.
reflectionephemeral | 9.1.11 @ 1:02PM
The problem is, as we've seen with the rise of the Tea Party, the Republican Party has no policy ideas, just a series of resentments.
(Honestly, what ideology would a person have that would lead them to support the Bush administration's invasion of Iraq, Medicare Part D, Raich v. Gonzalez, fiscal policies, the executive's right to wiretap citizens without warrants and to detain citizens without charges... and then claim to be really charged up about increased federal power and deficits?)
Minorities can be won over to support conservative policies, but not to the current, postmodern, zero-policy, white-resentment-fueled Republican Party.
franke| 9.1.11 @ 8:26PM
HA! Free Market Capitalism, Strong Defense, and Adherence to the Constitution. Those alone are more principles than the Democrap party has ever had (unless you count Marxism, appeasement, cheating, and vote buying).
The Tea Party is driven by fiscal responsibility from our Federal government. The Left is built on victimhood (which they provide) and self interest.
paradoctor| 9.3.11 @ 11:31AM
You say the R's are for free market capitalism? Nonsense; they're for crony capitalism. Strong defense? You mean like starting losing wars based upon lies? And as for adherence to the Constitution... surely you jest.
And need I point out the massive fiscal irresponsibility of every R president since Reagan?
Richard| 9.2.11 @ 10:09AM
Agree with reflectionephemeral. Well stated. Take health care. Rock solid conservative commentator Philip Klein wrote in an issue of the Examiner this week that the only coherent viewpoint most Republicans express on health care is that they're against ObamaCare. There is no GOP alternative at present. Meanwhile those in the public who have a health care plan see the assurance of that plan for the future slipping away. Oh, I know. Blame the media. That dog doesn't hunt anymore since FoxNews (the second syllable is often silent) became the house organ of the Republican party. Conservatives and Republicans will not assemble a winning coalition - or, if you prefer, a 51 percent majority - if the campaign platform boils down to "We don't like Obama very much".
Al Adab| 9.1.11 @ 1:03PM
Frankly a deep philosophical difference Left to Right is the Lefts' belief that citizens are best manipulated by classifying them into various interest groups or socio-economic groups. It stems from Marxist proletarian thought. The Right sees people as individuals , as members of the marketplace if you will, who make decisions based on individual concerns not on class distinctions. The battle between the collective and the individual is actually the great battle of our time.
paradoctor| 9.3.11 @ 11:41AM
It's not that simple. The nativism on display in the R party (and on this thread) is as collectivist as any Marxism. So is nationalism, particularly of the militaristic variety. And right-wing policy proves that the Right believes in class distinctions. The Right has a strong collectivist streak.
martin j smith| 9.1.11 @ 1:34PM
If you are saying that "minorities" no matter how miserable their lives due to economic policies will vote for the very people making them miserable perhaps you are right. But then again, its beyond fool me once shame on you. Fool me twice shame on me does apply to all of us.
paradoctor| 9.3.11 @ 11:54AM
Oddly enough, "voting for the very people making them miserable" is exactly what the Left sees the Republican base doing.
Suppose it's true; suppose you see a huge group of people voting against their own interests. What do you, in your superior wisdom, do? Sneer? Shout a warning? Bet on ruin? Plea for reason?
JP| 9.1.11 @ 1:38PM
1st generation Hispanic women average 3.6 children versus 1.7 for caucasions (black and asian women average slightly more than whites). However, this number falls off quickly with 2nd and 3rd generation Hispanic women. They average around the same as the non-Hispanic population.
According to UN demographic and population trends Mexico and Central and South America have rapidly falling birthrates. Mexico's birthrate has fallen from around 5.6 children per female in 1970 to 2,4 children per female in 2010. If trends continue, Mexico will go below replacement levels by 2020. Brazil's birthrates are already well below replacement levels (around 1.8 children per female).
As the author said, demographics isn't destiny. However, when one considers that in 2010 half of all children were Hispanic, something has to give. Surprisingly, the total US growth in population circa 2001-2010 was at its slowest level since 1929 (despite the growth of Hispanics).
miken| 9.1.11 @ 1:47PM
Bob McDonnell showed how to run a successful campaign while getting minority votes.
NotPropagandized| 9.1.11 @ 2:12PM
It's amazing how late to the game that Republicans are in promoting its skilled and capable minority adherents. Seems to me that decades of Democrat/Socialist propaganda in the form of entitlements, envy of all kinds, racism, you name it, is so far ahead of conservatives needing to educate on the traditional, lightly regulated free enterprise system. It does not help that along the way that Democrats have cultivated and now co-opted huge business and government enterprises that are offensive to free-enterprise, but convince the uninformed that business in general is corrupt and representative of crony-capitalism [FreddieMac, FannieMae]. Pure conservatives eschew monopoly and oligopoly business as unrepresentative of lively, growth-oriented and healthy commerce benefitting the whole population, not just BigWigs at the top of government or of GeneralElectric.
Teflon93| 9.1.11 @ 2:38PM
The GOP needs to recognize two undeniable facts of life:
1. They will never outpander Democrats;
2. They will never succeed by enabling Democrats to import welfare state dependents.
Mike w| 9.1.11 @ 8:50PM
"2. They will never succeed by enabling Democrats to import welfare state dependents"
Exactly. The Perry fans don't understand this.
Shamus| 9.1.11 @ 2:39PM
Unless they enjoy being poor, minorities will stop voting for Democrats. If they do enjoy poverty, then Democrats can help.
randyinrocklin| 9.1.11 @ 2:42PM
looks like karl Rove contributed to this article, that's why he had Bush pandering to illegal immigrants. with his amnesty bullcrap.
PattyMor| 9.1.11 @ 3:02PM
The Republicans will win when they start governing with the values they proclaim during elections. During elections they all say theyr'e conservatives but Repubs gave us the EPA, OSHA, NCLB, prescription drugs, and TARP. So we are out of money and the country is bankrupt.
Will we have the determination to reverse the damage years of liberalism have inflicted?
Mimi| 9.2.11 @ 8:15AM
Good post Patty....Perhaps we should start first with the Repubic stuff.....Love to see the EPA as is...go in the dust-bin...Their the main job killers!
Howard Hirsch| 9.1.11 @ 4:30PM
As a former GOP county chairman, I couldn't agree more, but the story here is nothing new. It was first formulated by John Judis and Ruy Texeira in their 2000 book "The Emerging Democratic Majority".
I agree that the long-term prospects for the GOP are poor, but after its demise the Dems will follow in short order as they discover themselves to be nothing more than a very tenuous coalition of groups that downright hate each other's guts and were only held together by a common hatred of "Chimpy Bushitler McHalliburton" or the next bogeyman of the moment.
What politics will resemble after that point is anyone's guess. I won't be around to see it.
emo| 12.2.11 @ 10:25PM
You are correct. A Dem party with no serious GOP opposition will be brain dead and corrupt like the Mexican PRI was. The Dem party is a coalition of loosely held together groups who hate one another as much as they hate the GOP.
The interesting question isnt what happens to the GOP. We know what happens....they go extinct like in CA. But what happens to the Dems and ultimately the USA as a nation?
martin j smith| 9.1.11 @ 4:42PM
Those people who support open borders and a free lunch for illegals are going to help put our country in the ditch economically and every other way. WE DO NOT HAVE THE MONEY.
GUARDINO: Who will plant the money tree to pay for all the goodies this population will require. ? Thinking back this is yet another reason why GWB and ALL THE BUSHES ARE NOT SO FOR OUR COUNTRY. Meaning well is not good enough. Its the results that count.
USSAlabama| 9.1.11 @ 8:33PM
I'm supposing Martin, Soren, and Abell mean "Guardiano".
George S| 9.1.11 @ 9:09PM
Forty two percent of Americans call themselves conservative; twenty percent call themselves liberal. Thirty six percent of independents lean conservative and 19% lean liberal. Yet conservative's electoral days are numbered by demographics? One way or the other, some one is pulling a big chain here.
emo| 12.2.11 @ 10:26PM
yup that 42% conservatives includes blacks and hispanics who oppose abortion and gay marriage but who will never vote GOP.......that 42% stat is useless in determining elections
RWinks| 9.1.11 @ 10:51PM
Back when this was a free country 60 years ago, people used to laugh when iron curtain countries announced the dictator got 90% of the vote because we all knew it was fraud. Today when the Dems get 90 plus per-cent in minority precincts, does anyone out there think it isn't due to election fraud? There is a reason they don't want voter ID.
Negro X| 9.2.11 @ 4:06AM
Remove the illeagla alien and the problem is solved.
jppc| 9.2.11 @ 4:58AM
Deport illegals AND reduce legal immigration. The only way to maintain the USA as a free enterprise, individual based republic.
It's all about immigration. Reducing it is the only way. Duh.
martin j smith| 9.2.11 @ 8:03AM
I think if people understand that we as a nation CANNOT FINANCIALLY AFFORD to support folks coming here with many financial,social,medical and educational needs ( and the costs involved ) would conclude that any form of "amnesty" would be UNSUSTAINABLE.
THE CORRECT POLICY WOULD FLOW FROM THAT.
Mimi| 9.2.11 @ 8:36AM
We need a mammoth moratorium on all immigration....we have had to do this before in HISTORY! STOP, and give those new to our land a chance to assimilate and get their citizenship, learn our language and history.
FIRST seal the BORDER ! Anyhow ,anyway and soon!
The candidate who shows they realize the urgency of this, who protects our sovereignty as a promise , will get elected.
We lost eight years with the Bush...The green light was on....this problem is critical to the survival of our country and way of life.
We have a right to protect our NATION...we just need the will to DO-IT!
john dubose| 9.2.11 @ 8:51AM
Mexico has a political party that looks a lot like
the Republican party. They hold the presidency.
As time goes on and they atain prosperity, both immigrants and local minorities will trend Republican. It is called self interest.
emo| 12.2.11 @ 10:27PM
But in Mexico there isnt an entire immigrant culture based on victimology and identity politics.
jppc| 9.2.11 @ 9:30AM
I don't hate Mexico and Mexicans BUT.......... they have had favored status in terms of immigration for decades. They are the number one sender of legal and illegal immigrants into the USA for decades.
We need a reduction in all immigration, especially from Mexico/Central America. Enough is enough.
paradoctor| 9.3.11 @ 11:13AM
You mention the Jews and the Blacks... one thing these two groups have in common is strong cultural hatred of slavery. For the African-Americans liberation was less than two centuries ago; for the Jews, barely five millennia. Neither is enough time for those sorts of memories to fade.
So you'd think that the Republicans, whose first President waged and won a civil war that freed the slaves, would do well with both groups.
But no, not since the Voting Rights Act, which LBJ correctly said would lose the South to the GOP. The Dixiecrats bolted to the R's, and the R's have grown increasingly regional since. Politically, regionalism is a trap.
One question I often ask of conservatives, and which I've never gotten a straight answer to:
What do you think of the first Republican president, Lincoln?
paradoctor| 9.3.11 @ 11:22AM
And as for D's "preying on the poor"; so do the R's, for they both serve the interests of big money; the R's by aggressive assault, the D's by craven complicity.
Kevin M| 9.23.11 @ 2:41AM
Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of bigots.
yisong| 10.25.11 @ 10:05PM
Slewing ring : a novel rotary products, also commonly called a slewing bearing slewing bearing, usually by a worm, shell, motor and other components.