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The Spectacle Blog
The fall of Tripoli, which seems to have happened with astounding rapidity, must leave us wondering “what next?”
As we see Egypt lurch perilously close to a Muslim Brotherhood cliff, and allowing itself (probably intentionally) to be drawn closer to conflict with Israel, one would be forgiven or, or even expected to, be less than optimistic for Libya, a country more tribal than Egypt and perhaps therefore more difficult to unify other than by force of arms.
I’d be foolish to make any prediction about Libya, and I won’t make one.
Just a few things to point out, however, in terms of differences between Libya and Egypt or Iraq:
First, the man who is running Libya’s National Transitional Council, Mustafa Abdul Jalil, appears initially to be as close to a real reformer as we’ve seen anywhere in the “Arab Spring” or in Afghanistan or Iraq.
Second, Libya’s population is only about 6.5 million, as compared to 31 million in Iraq and 83 million in Egypt. This could make a national consensus easier to achieve. That said, the tribal nature of Libya is more like Iraq than like Egypt. In the former, people often consider themselves Kurds or members of particular tribes or members of particular religious denominations before they consider themselves Iraqis. This is, of course, a huge problem in unifying a country. The Eastern tribes of Libya may not want to work closely with the Western tribes, at least not before trying to gain more influence in the overall governing structure, and that could lead to tension and perhaps violence. And, while perhaps not as prevalent as in Iraq, there are Islamist groups in Libya who will make efforts to fill any power vacuum.
Third, unlike Iraq, Libya is not bordered by nations likely to send their agents and other terrorists into the country to destabilize the situation. This bodes well for Libya’s chances at avoiding something like Iraq’s routine massacres and IED attacks.
Fourth, like both Egypt and Iraq, Libya has long been dominated by a strongman willing to do most anything to retain power, though clearly Saddam Hussein was more brutal to his own people than Hosni Mubarak was. It therefore gets a first-in-a-generation taste of liberty while having very few public institutions capable of enforcing, or perhaps even understanding, the rule of law required as a foundation for a sustainable democracy. It remains to be seen whether the tensions mentioned above overwhelm a move toward creating such national institutions. It will also be interesting to see if they ask for help from any western nations, and if so which one(s). Given the US role in liberating the nation from Colonel Gaddafi, my guess is that the Libyans might first reach out to France. After all, it was Nicolas Sarkozy who really pushed the western powers into the action that toppled the tyrant.
Fifth, Libyan oil: Italy has a long history with Libya, and it’s being reported that an Italian oil company, ENI, already has the best shot at leading the redevelopment of Libya’s oil industry. Perhaps the most interesting comment in the article linked in the prior sentence: “‘We don’t have a problem with western countries like Italians, French and UK companies. But we may have some political issues with Russia, China and Brazil,’ Abdeljalil Mayouf, information manager at Libyan rebel oil firm AGOCO, told Reuters.” This is a huge setback to Russia and China, both of who were involved or trying to be involved in Libya’s oil industry in recent years. It’s especially bad for China which has been making a concerted effort to get control of material resources across Africa by offering financial and technical aid across the continent. An article in the Economist says “Africans are asking whether China is making their lunch or eating it.” It’s also worth noting that the Libyan who made the comments did not include US companies in his “most favored nations,” though that could easily be because US companies have had so little involvement there so far.
Sixth, the U.S. can claim almost no credit for the events in Libya. In fact, because of Barack Obama’s incredible leading from behind, we will probably get even less credit than the small credit we are due. After all, Obama distanced himself from the operation as soon as possible, including emphasizing that the NATO operations, which would normally be considered as primarily American operations, would not be and were not led by an American. Although President Obama will probably try subtly to take some credit for Tripoli, trying to distract from his own unhappy citizenry, nobody will give him any credit for the outcome so far…and nobody should.
View all comments (12) | Leave a comment
More Blog Posts by Ross Kaminsky
http://spectator.org/blog/2011/08/22/what-next-for-libya
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Kingofthenet| 8.22.11 @ 11:26AM
Another one bites the dust!Another Obama Victory!
Occam's Tool| 8.22.11 @ 12:34PM
Enjoy your victory until the first beheadings of women and children.
Bill Hussein O'Stalin| 8.22.11 @ 12:18PM
They will be formulating plans to attack us in short order.
Occam's Tool| 8.22.11 @ 12:28PM
Another Islamic Republic. Ross, not being religious, underestimates the power of religion, particularly in Islamic countries.
Bad Moon Rising. Next case.
Bob K.| 8.22.11 @ 2:07PM
Kaminski, by his own words, is a Derivatives Trader.
http://spectator.org/people/ross-kaminsky/all
By Thomas Jefferson's words he is a Merchant: "Merchants have no country. The mere spot they stand on does not constitute so strong an attachment as that from which they draw their gains." 1814--From a letter to Horatio Spafford.
Now you know why he is so concerned with Oil in this expanding diplomatic and human disaster.
Ross Kaminsky | 8.22.11 @ 2:21PM
Bob, you're a bit of a paranoid nut case, aren't you? How many people are not "merchants" by your definition? And of those, what percentage work for the government?
Exactly what about one of my six points being about oil allows you to say that I am "so concerned with oil"?
For the record, I don't trade oil and I never have traded oil, and I have no investment or position in oil stocks other than what mutual funds in my retirement accounts might hold.
That said, is there a reason that oil should not be among the very top few things we do care about when it comes to Middle East politics?
So, can you please tell me one thing in my note that you think is actually wrong? Or are you just such a bitter man that you have nothing better to do than to try to post insults (with very little effectiveness, I might add)?
Bob K.| 8.22.11 @ 3:05PM
No, I am not a paranoid nut case nor am I apologetic at all about this. And it strikes me that I have hit a very sore point with you.
As to your first question; you have devoted a good portion of your blog to the oil problem in the near east.
And here is my answer to your 2nd question with out so called "insults" or historical references to back them up. (Jefferson can be very annoying at times. It was after all his comment on the character of merchants, not mine, and not a definition.)
You would be better off concerning yourself with our own Oil Industry's problems with our own administration rather than encouraging us to expend more of our resources on bringing about a democracy to this patch of desert (which will never happen and which will create further problems in that area) in the hopes that it will help to solve our own oil crisis.
If this means that I understand (or misunderstand) derivatives trading to be a form of betting on the health (or lack thereof) of vital areas of our economy then I don't think that I am far removed from what most of the citizenry think it is. And that is hardly paranoid, considering the current state of our economy!
Ross Kaminsky | 8.22.11 @ 4:24PM
1) Where did I encourage us to spend America's resources on Libya in this article or in any other article?
2) Although I haven't counted, I would bet that fewer than 1% of my blog articles are about oil. If you were talking about this specific article, it was one point raised out of six, and certainly deserves to be one of them given the spike in oil which we saw right when the fighting began.
As far as trading goes, especially the type that I do, I make no apologies for "betting on the economy." If my trading caused the economy to sour, as perhaps George Soros' trading has done, I might...might...have something to apologize for. Furthermore, I can't make a trade (or a "bet") without someone else willing to bet another way. That's the beauty of markets.
In any case, my overall point was that you decided to attack me personally and to mischaracterize my article, both of which are traits I would expect from someone with not much grasp of the facts but a great desire to argue for its own sake.
Ross Kaminsky | 8.22.11 @ 2:23PM
Occam,
I don't see that as a fair criticism. In my writing on my own site and on my radio show, I have been extremely worried about the influence of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. And I already mentioned the Sunni vs. Shiite fighting in Iraq.
Your criticisms of my writing, when they occur, are usually much more on target than this one.
It is funny how people react completely differently to me on conservative sites once they know I'm not religious. There are a few lessons in that, both about you (plural) and about what I should disclose in my writing.
Occam's Tool| 8.22.11 @ 4:05PM
Fair enough, Ross---let me be even more plain.
It is going to go this way because there is no foundation for any other way for it to go. Everything else is just a pile of gook in terms of structure and organization. I do apologize for assuming it is your lack of religious experience that makes this a bit of a failure for you---however, as a fellow who lived for 7 years in a small town in the South where everyone went to Church on Wednesdays AND Sundays, just imagining a place where the power of religion is significantly greater makes me significantly leery of ANY governmental structure being formed without Islamic control.
In short, easy prediction. Another Islamic Republic---probability 99%. Finally, we are going from a scumbag we could cow to one we will be unable to cow. This is most likely a step backward.
Note, too, the absolute lack of ability of power projection of two of the remaining non-China "great powers"---the UK and France. With their dazzling demographic decline (when I can see non-Muslim demographic numbers of 2.1 children per woman I'll believe, but that ain't happening), this is the most power that these countries will be able to throw for the next 50 years. Their very survival is at risk over the next 30 years.
So, nothing to stop the Islamic republic, all the will power in the hands of the Muslims, and the West unwilling to stop. This was a major step backward.
Our goal in Middle East Islamic interventions, from now on, needs to resemble Byzantium---set them at each other, hopefully to be destroyed, while improving our own demographics---that means more educated Westernized Indians and fewer uneducated Hispanics. It is going to be a VERY rough ride.
There, Ross, did I leave you out enough? You are underestimating the horrible volatility of the situation. ALL wars, Ross, are caused by population pressure, either real or felt. Tied with this is usually an ideology of some type. What people are feeling this and what ideology they have, is obvious.
Ross Kaminsky | 8.22.11 @ 4:26PM
Occam,
I too assume that whatever government comes will be Islamic, but within that there is a question of degree, e.g. Iran or Turkey.
I am not an optimist by nature when it comes to the Middle East and I think you'll find in my writing that my thinking is much more similar to yours on this than you seem to believe.
However, I'll bet you a beer that within a couple of years the situation in Libya will be less bad than you expect. (I'm not willing to bet much more than a beer, though!)
Infantryman| 8.23.11 @ 9:23AM
We only get about 5% of Libya's oil, Europe 85% and the remainder goes east of the Suez. I cannot think of any other national interest we might have in Libya outside of its light crude which can be had elsewhere if need be. Let the nations who depend on Libya's oil work things out with whoever ends up in power and we can go about our business and try to solve our important problems.
An additional point, NATO has absolutely no business running a jackleg campaign against Libya since its raison d'etre is to stop the Soviets from over running Europe. When did the NATO members vote on a Libyan contingency operation? If the Europeans want to do a little military campaigning, use some other arrangement other than NATO and include us out. And, if we have provided logistic support for the exercise, tote up the bill and send it to the nations who received the support.