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The Spectacle Blog
Those who argue that Paul Ryan would have a much harder time winning the GOP nomination now that Rick Perry is sucking a lot of the conservative oxygen out of the room have a point. Campaigns are won with message, money, and organization, and all Ryan has right now is a message.
But that doesn't mean he wouldn't be able to appeal to a broad spectrum of Republicans and independents, and crossover Dems in those states that allow crossover voting. Our good friend Phil Klein seems to argue that Ryan has nowhere to go, in terms of voter groups. I usually admire Phil's political judgment, but not here. Ryan's record and persona mean that he is one of the few candidates that can pull from multiple voter groups at once. He keeps getting elected in a slightly Democrat-leaning district, for one thing -- and with very solid majorities. He knows how to appeal to blue collar workers. He knows how to take on hot-button issues and play them to his advantage with usually skeptical groups. Yeah, yeah, he voted for TARP. Any economic conservative who holds that against him is a numbskull -- not because voting against TARP wasn't a mistake, which it was, but because any officeholder's record needs to be judged in toto, and all told it is undeniable that Ryan's economic approach is more effectively and persuasively conservative than just about any candidate in the past 20 years. If Peyton Manning throws an interception, does that one interception make him a bad quarterback? Of course not.
Anyway, Ryan is perhaps the only full-spectrum conservative with a proven record of successfully earning votes across party and ideological lines. Michele Bachmann wins in a heavily GOP district with vote totals below that of most GOPers in that district. Rick Perry wins in overwhelmingly GOP-voting Texas, sometimes by small margins. Mitt Romney was too scared to run for re-election in Massachusetts because he had every reason to expect to lose. But Ryan keeps getting re-elected in the same ditrict that sent liberal Les Aspin to Congress for something like 22 years. And yes, Ryan does so as a full-spectrum conservative. He is a supply-sider who even worked for Jack Kemp. He is a cultural conservative and pro-lifer who worked for Bill Bennett and Sam Brownback. He is a budget-cutter who has put forth the boldest budget reform plan to pass the House in decades. He is a strong-defense guy. And he is a strong 2nd Amendment guy -- and, for that matter, an excellent bow hunter. Finally, he scares the bleep out of Barack Hussein The One Obama, who can't stand up to him one-on-one in debate. All of which means that, if he can somehow put together the money and organization, he can appeal to a wide spectrum of voters, in the primaries and in the general election.
Hey, I could probably name a dozen Ryan votes I haven't liked, and I blasted him in print here at TAS for one of them several months ago. But, from a purely analytical standpoint in terms of political viability, Paul Ryan "has game."
He's not the only one with such proven political skills who is running or might run, but he's certainly among the most accomplished. This isn't an endorsement, by any means. (Heck, I'm still waiting to endorse Mike Pence. I guess that didn't pan out!) It's just political reality.
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More Blog Posts by Quin Hillyer
http://spectator.org/blog/2011/08/19/yes-ryan-could-win-in-a-genera
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Special Feature
Better that we become a nation of choosers rather than beggars. Our symposium on choice from the May, 2012 issue:
FLASHBACK TO: 1984
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The Fairness Delusion
The speech our President should make.
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Media Smears: One Man’s Experiences
A noted economist fires back.
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Chuck Colson vs. The Fundamentalists
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The Reagan Doctrine
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The Woman Problem
Farcical feminism is a decades-old phenomenon, as George Will's essay from 1970 reminds us.
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Jack in Wi.| 8.19.11 @ 11:32AM
Paul Ryan's district is next to mine. He is a nice guy. Nice guys finish last. He is just a policy wonk who neeeds a lot more seasoning to be a president. Maybe Speaker of the House. He has no chance to get elected on a program of cutting Social Security and Medicare.
Randal Thompson| 8.19.11 @ 11:33AM
(Heck, I'm still waiting to endorse Mike Pence. I guess that didn't pan out!) - Ditto!
Ken (Old Texican)| 8.19.11 @ 12:03PM
Quin,
I read an article earlier this morning reminding us of the old marketing idea for soup "Pick a fight with Campbell's"
Wel that's precisely what Perry did with the Bernanke remark. Everyone knows Bernanke has been a sock pupppet for Obama since day one.... and he's white.
I read a couple of our smartest financial pundits this morning. They believe Perry's right, and that the only reason the dollar hasn't crashed is that it is the "haven" for terrified Europeans these days.
Remember the phrase: "Not worth a continental"?
Remember how you escape Grizzly bears in the wild? Camp out with fat slow-running lawyers.
Now, whether Perry can sustain the momentum over the next months remains to be seen, BUT, out of the chute, Our Governor has thrown down the guantlet and voiced our thoughts with his four points. I think we will have them all memorized within a couple of weeks.
1. First, don't spend all the money...
...well ya'll get the drift.
Perry had laid down the markers for his run...and his governance... right out of the chute, and he won't walk-back on those.
The other candidates instead, have nibbled around the edges like timid bunny rabbits in your garden.
NotALibertarian| 8.19.11 @ 12:19PM
Mr. Hillyer seems to ignore the fact that the Ryan Plan is not necessarily something that polls well with everyone. It is subject to just as much potential demagoguing as Perry's more colorful tendencies.
Rather than make this election about Ryan's roadmap, I would prefer to make it about a candidate who will implement the roadmap once in office, all-the-while aggressively answering all of the liberal attacks against him with his own attacks on Obama. And in the end, it would be much better for that person to be someone who is going to drain the GOP swamp of Bush operatives.
I'm not saying that Ryan would be a bad choice, but to say he is somehow a smarter or safer choice than Perry is not objective.
Teflon93| 8.19.11 @ 1:07PM
Ryan's positions are here:
http://www.ontheissues.org/House/Paul_Ryan.htm
While known primarily as a fiscal conservative, he has been a staunch social and national security conservative as well.
Margie| 8.19.11 @ 1:16PM
"Ryan's record and persona mean that he is one of the few candidates that can pull from multiple voter groups at once."
I agree with you there. Things that appeal to a lot of non-conservatives and conservatives alike today, are: youth, intelligence, level headedness, fiscal responsibility, straightforwardness.
He has it all and he's conservative and because of all of the above he wins people over.
I like him a lot. But will he run?
Strudwick Wickerwire| 8.19.11 @ 1:34PM
Wondering why, if someone (Ryan) could become president NOW, why would a presidential run be put off until the dynamic has potentially changed, maybe for the worst, resulting in 4 years of wasted time???!!!
Paul Ryan, during debates, could render Obonehead a stuttering nincompoop, while providing a much needed deliverance and antidote from Omugabe's unrestrained jive!!!
Oldefarte| 8.19.11 @ 1:41PM
I agree with Quin's description that Ryan could beat Obama in a fiscal/monetary debate, but IMO that's where it ends. He's [or appears to be] a MONEY GUY [and there's nothing wrong with that, as I am one myself], but there's more to be POTUS than that. Perry may have other problems [and his playing footsie with Muslim organizations is one], but he's a LEADER [you can see it, hear it, smell it, etc; the man has that macho charisma of his jet pilot background in spades]. Ryan would be an excellent Treasury Secretary, Chairman of the Joint Eco. Comm, etc; but I don't think he has that presidential leadership quality in him. He's extremely intelligent, as stated, but presidential, nah!!!!!!!
Wayne | 8.19.11 @ 2:05PM
I like not having picked a favorite yet. Let the process sort some things out. I could vote for Ryan. He is impressive, but then again I was a math major. I like the detail guy. He would win against Obama because the contrast will be too obvious for even the main stream media to screw up. You have the guy who always tells the truth against the guy who always lies.
But I am quite open to other candidates like Perry and Bachman, and Palin if she gets in the race. Maybe we need some kind of amnesty for Republicans also. It is like this. We know you made some mistakes like going along with Bushes spending sprees or trusting the words of Democrats, but if you (unlike John Mc Cain) can show that you have seen the conservative light and embrace the tea party principals we will ignore that stuff and move forward from here.
Oldefarte| 8.19.11 @ 3:43PM
Absolutely agree, Wayne! I'm not favorable yet to any Republican, but just think Ryan would be better suited to a numbers/finance type position [to make the best possible use of his demonstrated financial abilities]!!!!
Oldefarte| 8.19.11 @ 3:47PM
PS: Ryan's unique ability to analyze/define this budget/fiscal problem is an extreme contrast to your typical politician who basically has no clue concerning same!!!!
Steve A| 8.19.11 @ 2:54PM
If Ryan runs, he wins. The guy clearly has "it." There is no question. He needs to step up before it is too late.
In life, the timing is never really right for any major initiative. Yes, he could use more experience, yes, he needs a better "organization," yes, it will be difficult, yes, he could lose.
The moment is here & now. If he steps forward & clearly articulates a Conservative roadmap out of this mess, like he can, we have a chance to secure America for future generations.