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The Spectacle Blog
The Weekly Standard’s Stephen Hayes is reporting that Paul Ryan is giving serious thought to running for president. Many conservatives are excited about this news for obvious reasons. Ryan has come up with one of the few serious plans in Washington for confronting the main drivers of the country’s long-term debt. He is relatively young, telegenic, eloquent, and knows the federal budget inside and out. In 2012, Republicans are going to be attacked for Ryan’s Medicare proposal anyway. Why not have a nominee who can actually defend it?
But there would be downsides to a Ryan presidential run. First, the field is already full and he has no obvious path to the nomination. Would he automatically leap to frontrunner status in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina? Fairly or not, a failed Ryan campaign would, like the NY-26 race, be used to discredit entitlement reform and could well make a Republican president less likely to touch the third rail.
Second, Ryan’s credibility as a fiscal conservative will be tarnished. He voted for TARP. He not only voted for but was instrumental in passing Medicare Part D. He uses Medicare Part D as an example of how to bring health care costs down (I don’t actually disagree with him on this point, even though I opposed Medicare Part D, but the finer distinctions will be lost in the political debate). He has been an advocate for spending agreements that have been criticized by Tea Party activists and supported a debt deal the entire GOP field save Jon Huntsman opposed. He is running against Republicans — Rick Perry, Michele Bachmann, Ron Paul — who will not hesitate to point all of this out.
All these problems could get worse if he somehow wins the nomination. Obama will point out that Ryan had a hand in all the major unfunded spending of the Bush administration, blurring the distinction between Ryan’s fiscal responsibility and the president’s own budget-busting. He will demagogue Medicare ceaselessly. Worst of all, if Ryan loses we get four more years of Obama — and quite possibly no Paul Ryan as chairman of the House Budget Committee.
The late Paul Weyrich once lamented that conservatives are monarchists at heart. The desire for presidential leadership is understandable. But the work Ryan is doing as chairman of the House Budget Committee is valuable. No matter who is president, someone in Congress needs to be doing what he is doing. Very few people have seemed equal to this task.
If the report is true, I suspect the only reason he is thinking about jumping in is that he doesn’t see anybody in the Mitch Daniels-less field who will play Ronald Reagan to his Jack Kemp. If he gets elected president, he’ll have a bigger platform for reforming entitlements and controlling federal spending.
But if Ryan loses, it will set back the work he has done on the House Budget Committee. In my opinion, it’s not worth the risk.
View all comments (9) | Leave a comment
More Blog Posts by W. James Antle, III
http://spectator.org/blog/2011/08/16/paul-ryan-should-stay-in-the-h
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Lullabys, Legends and Lies| 8.16.11 @ 11:39AM
"Worst of all, if Ryan loses we get four more years of Obama"!!
Stop saying crap like that!! Because it's not going to be true!!
Whoever gets the Republican nomination, is going to destroy this President. This guy's the second "but even worse" coming of Jimmy Carter, and you could run a Pet-Rock against him, and he would lose!! If Ryan jumps in, I think he could make an impact, maybe even jump to the front of the line, but it doesn't matter, because it's 1979 all over again, and the odds are stacked against the "failed" President again. The only Folks who really believe the President is going to be re-elected, is the President himself, the Borough of Manhattan, and the entire City of San Francisco, but then again, this shouldn't come as a shock to anybody.
If you're in Wisconsin today, go vote!! Vote out the Fleebaggers, and help destroy the thieving Public Sector Unions, once and for all!! If you're a Public Sector Worker in Wisconsin, go back to sleep, your break isn't over yet!!
Real American| 8.16.11 @ 11:43AM
he should stay in the House, but keep an open mind about that VP slot. A Perry-Ryan ticket would be HUGE.
Jake| 8.16.11 @ 12:01PM
Ryan has already been tarred as the guy going to starve granny.
He would spend the whole campaign trying to explain
his Medicare reform.
He's called a Young Gun because he's young and he should consider a run for the Senate instead.
Bob Grant| 8.16.11 @ 12:02PM
Run Ryan Run!!!
He is just what we need. A competent, serious individual who can articulate the conservative stance on the issues.
The current crop of candidates (or potential candidates) are obvious RINO's (Romney, Huntsman), unelectable (Gingrich, Cain), or buffoonish (Perry, Palin).
Ryan is just what we need to focus the attention on Obama's failures, and a way out of our fiscal crisis.
Let's go Ryan.
crazy| 8.16.11 @ 12:03PM
Must be a pretty large difference in strategy/tactics between Boehner/Cantor and Ryan for him to abandon ship.
1ConservativeUSA| 8.16.11 @ 12:13PM
I understand the author's opinion, but I strongly disagree with his cowardice.
I, too, am torn about a Ryan presidency because I believe he is very valuable in the House. However, I believe the House leadership opportunity is the ONLY reason Ryan should not run. He should not be afraid of his past voting record, and is more than capable of defending it.
Lincoln, Reagan, they didn't shy away because of politics or for fear of losing, and neither should Ryan. We need a leader with intelligence and courage, who is able have an adult conversation with the nation. That person is Paul Ryan.
Crussol| 8.16.11 @ 12:31PM
All excellent points and a compelling argument for why Ryan shouldn't run. However the only reason for Ryan to right now is that there is (as he seems to realize based on the Hayes article) who is articulating a sharp distinction with Obama. Crucially, his low poll numbers notwithstanding, Obama remains the favorite with both Perry and Romaney having serious flaws.
A Ryan campaign will not be easy but his knowledge, clarity and composure will almost certainly allow him to make a more compelling case than either Romney or Perry and moreover to secure a more certain mandate if he is able to win. To date nothing I've seen on the stump from either of the latter makes me super confident they will win.
Chairman Ryan is useless with Obama 2 and will require leadership from a President Romney that I am not sure the latter is able or willing to give.
The risks are very considerable but this is a bet you're country election. Ryan does not have a clear path to the nomination* or the presidency* but it valor can be the better part of discretion when its an issue of leaving possibly you're best candidate on the table.
*Perhaps I'm wrong but I think he instantly becomes the favorite. He has enormous appeal to conservatives in the Establishment and can very well secure considerable Tea Party support. Setting aside the ridiculous Paul and the somewhat problematic Bachmann even Perry would have (aside from his executive experience) little effective ammunition against Ryan's substance and if Ryan's argument can't prevail in the Republican nominating contest this country is probably in much worse shape even than I fear.
Mimi| 8.16.11 @ 4:07PM
AMAZING...JUST AMAZING NEWS ! Can't WAIT for three small boys to bring some action to the Whitehouse...The treat America is waiting for .....Were sick of being depressed we need some JOY ! PAUL RYAN....HOW PERFECT!
Marshall Kane| 8.21.11 @ 6:30AM
Lullabys, Legends and Lies,
"it doesn't matter, because it's 1979 all over again, and the odds are stacked against the "failed" President again."
Even if it is 1979 all over again you may want to take a closer look at the Reagan-Carter race. Despite a disaster of a presidency and low approval numbers Carter was still neck-in-neck with Reagan until days before the election.
It is VERY difficult to defeat a sitting president, even one with a poor record running against a strong challenger.
Republicans and conservatives are in deep trouble if we forget this lesson.