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The Spectacle Blog
Ames, Iowa — The results of the Ames Straw Poll:
1. Congresswoman Michele Bachmann (4823 votes, 28.55%)
2. Congressman Ron Paul (4671, 27.65%)
3. Governor Tim Pawlenty (2293, 13.57%)
4. Senator Rick Santorum (1657, 9.81%)
5. Herman Cain(1456, 8.62%)
6. Governor Rick Perry (718, 3.62%) write-in
7. Governor Mitt Romney (567, 3.36%)
8. Speaker Newt Gingrich (385, 2.28%)
9. Governor Jon Huntsman (69, 0.41%)
10. Congressman Thad McCotter (35, 0.21%)
This is almost exactly as I expected, with one exception: Paul came much closer to Bachmann, and further ahead of Pawlenty, than I had predicted.
This result is brutal for Pawlenty. A close third wouldn’t have been anything to celebrate, but it would have given his campaign some life. This doesn’t. Not only did he get less than half of Bachmann’s total, he got less than half of Paul’s. He is now telling the press that his campaign “made progress in moving from the back of the pack into a competitive position,” but I’m not sure he made enough progress. He may not be forced to drop out immediately, but it’s hard to see how he’ll raise enough money to build up an organization that clearly needs some work. Add into this Rick Perry’s entry — and Perry’s write-in victory over Romney is a symptom of enthusiasm that will quickly push him to the top tier — and one has to conclude that Pawlenty has very little chance of recovering unless something very strange happens in the coming months.
View all comments (44) | Leave a comment
More Blog Posts by John Tabin
http://spectator.org/blog/2011/08/13/bachmanns-victory-pawlentys-fa
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Clint| 8.13.11 @ 7:28PM
We Tea Party Patriots Delivered A Solid One-Two Message That We Have Changed The Dynamics Of Elections.
Aaaand, While The Bloviators Were Blowin' Smoke, We Tea Party Patriots Stepped On Their Faces & Brought In Our Tea Party Co-Favorite Dr.Ron Paul To A Near Dead Heat Finish.
The Tea Party Rebellion Is Here.
Watch & Learn.
Occam's Tool| 8.13.11 @ 8:35PM
This is the Peak of Paul. He isn't worthy of handling Michele's used tampons. He wants Nukes in the hands of Maniac Mullahs. He is a traitor to our country, as is Mike "I missed Usama so Americans could die a horrible death" Scheurer.
Yeah. I take dangerousness predictions from a clown who EPIC FAILED.
But speaking of Paul---this was his best chance at winning anything. He had money and organization, and he couldn't get 5,000 votes.Instead, he GOT HIS FACE STEPPED ON to a volunteer on an Israeli Kibbutz.
Perry/Bachmann or Bachmann/Perry (the latter my preference). That's the way it's gonna go. With Paul, to quote RoboCop's Villian---"Bitches Leave." The Bitchslapping of Ron Paul is going to get worse. That's because real Americans recognize Sharia's a menace.
Occam's Tool| 8.13.11 @ 9:12PM
Sorry---not "to a volunteer," "by a volunteer".
Clint| 8.14.11 @ 8:33AM
Michael Scheuer, Former CIA bin Laden Unit Chief.
" On Iran, The President should:
4.) Speak to the American people and tell them to expect to be brutally propagandized by U.S. citizen Israel-Firsters through AIPAC, their ubiquitous media shills, and the men and women they own in the U.S. Congress and federal bureaucracy. Urge Americans to ignore this effort by U.S. Israel-Firsters to get them to send their soldier-children to fight in a religious war in which the U.S. has no genuine national interest at stake, and in which U.S. participation would further bankrupt the country, require the reintroduction of conscription, and put America at war with all of the Muslim world -- Shia and Sunni -- for the foreseeable future."
The Tea Party Rebellion Steps On Tool Job's Face.
Wipe Your Feet.
Tom Osterman| 8.13.11 @ 9:41PM
Paul may be terrible on foreign policy, but you might want to ponder the fact that conservatives have given passes to moderates, e.g. Bush 41, because they were great on foreign policy. With, I might add, disastrous results, e.g. the Clinton presidency.
Paul has principles and is willing to take heat for them. He deserves better than ridicule, abuse even less.
Margie| 8.13.11 @ 11:44PM
Is it principled to blame America for terrorism?
Sorry but anything he may have to say about fiscal responsibility~ or anything at all that he has to say becomes null and void when he sides with the enemies of this country.
Remember now~ in his mind Iran is not a threat to the U.S.
Clint| 8.14.11 @ 8:26AM
The Israel Firsters Are All Atwitter & Runnin' Around With Their Hair On Fire Because We Tea Party Patriots Placed Michele Bachmann & Dr.Ron Paul In A Near Dead Heat, One-Two Win.
The Tea Party Rebellion Is Here.
Carpe Diem.
Dr.Ron Paul,
“Our military’s purpose is to defend our country, not to police the
Middle East.
“As the President prepares to send even more support to Egypt, we should
be reminded that it was our foreign aid that helped Mubarak retain power
to repress his people in the first place. Now we have to deal with the
consequences of those decisions, yet we keep repeating the same mistakes.
“I am not the only one who can see the absurdities of our foreign
policy. We give $3 billion to Israel and $12 billion to her enemies.
Most Americans know that makes no sense.
“We need to come to our senses, trade with our friends in the Middle
East (both Arab and Israeli), clean up our own economic mess so we set a
good example, and allow them to work out their own conflicts.”
Margie| 8.14.11 @ 12:08PM
"..Are All Atwitter & Runnin' Around With Their Hair On Fire."
LOL. You wish.
Zbigniew Mazurak| 8.14.11 @ 2:04AM
Occam, you effectively insulted Michele Bachmann by mentioning her in the same sentence as the RINO from Texas and even suggesting that she should run with him as a running mate. (See, I didn't even mention Perry's name in the same sentence.) Bachmann is a conservative, while the RINO from Texas is, you guessed it, a RINO. I will NEVER vote for Perry for any office, not even dog catcher, not even against B. Hussein Obama.
Jack in Wi.| 8.14.11 @ 10:49AM
Ron Paul is only going higher and higher. He has the issues and is framing the debate. His attacks on the wars and calls to bring the troops home get huge applause. He has by far the most commited and intelligent supporters and the largest number of them as well. They have the enthusiasm although Mrs Bachman has a lot too. Ron Paul has a huge fundraising opperation which is only going to get better. I can see why some of the neocons are wetting their pants.
Margie| 8.14.11 @ 12:37PM
"Ron Paul is only going higher and higher."
Yes, I hope he makes it.. to Heaven, that is, when it is his time.
And may he drop out of the race in peace.
PCC| 8.13.11 @ 7:42PM
Q: Should the candidates running for vice president or higher speaking fees (Santorum, Cain, Huntsman, Gingrich & McCotter) get out now or must they soldier on until the NH primary and the Iowa caucuses in order to achieve their objective?
Mimi| 8.13.11 @ 8:01PM
Clint...We Know....We Know................
Pawlenty....
Pawlenty....Came out looking too mean at the DEBATE...We gotta like,lovelike our guyHe went off the rail. He had a great film-add before he spoke...very inspiring and Patriotic...Maybe he ought to run that all over the country he might get some legs....IF he has some money...and give that a shot.
Paul....So what else is NEW!.......AGE counts...he looks .."NOT BAD" but an advisor role would be good for the Country if he backs track on Nukes for Iran...That made no sense...eye brows were raised!
Bachmann...Good for her!....She and Paul both strong Conservatives took 57% of the vote
Mimi| 8.13.11 @ 8:11PM
In fact....THE BIGGEST winner was ...The CONSERVATIVE CANDIDATE...Rino's take note!This little state out west is speaking LOUD to America! It's the CONSTITUTION STUPID !!
Cris Worth| 8.13.11 @ 8:23PM
The BIG WINNER here was Rick Perry. A brilliant tactical move to announce his candidacy in the first southern state to hold a primary but more important right in the middle of the Iowa straw poll. This garnered him enough write in votes to beat Romney. Bachmann has an electability problem putting Perry front and center in the Iowa Caucasus. A victory by Perry knocks out everyone but Romney putting pressure on Romney to win NH. Perry wins Iowa and NH he's the nominee or if he wins Iowa, SC and Fla he's the nominee. A Perry/Rubio ticket would be formidable indeed sweeping all the southern states in the general election.
Chuck| 8.13.11 @ 8:32PM
You have a point; Romney’s campaign parallels Dewey at the primary level. Thinking he has the nomination in the bag Romney runs an issueless, almost invisible campaign trying to avoid the big mistake. Now almost certain victory in NH is in doubt diverting his attention from South Carolina and especially Florida a state Romney must win to secure the nomination.
Jack in Wi.| 8.14.11 @ 10:54AM
perry has to be the most boring candidate and speaker I have ever seen. He makes GWBush look like a great orator. Both Romney and Perry are stiffs who excite no one. Ron Paul is setting the agenda and Mrs Bachman is the closest candidate to him in philosophy.
Gold BC| 8.13.11 @ 8:56PM
I agree with the comments above. Perry's defeat of Romney changes the entire dynamic of the campaign. I recommend Rubio come out and support Perry in the Florida primary. If victorious Perry would then pick Rubio as his VP, no doubt about it.
Occam's Tool| 8.13.11 @ 8:36PM
Perry/Rubio is also quite good...
Paul is FINISHED. Time to bring out the cheese graters to use on his supporters....
Samuel Wonacott| 8.13.11 @ 10:18PM
Dude... you may think his supporters are bad, but it's nearly as tortuous to listen to you anti-Paul people attack Paul and his supporters.
Grow up and give us a decent analysis of the situation. Nobody cares about how much you hate Ron Paul.
Bob Grant| 8.13.11 @ 10:51PM
I've heard Occam give glowing reviews about his son. Does he get cred for that?
Bob Grant| 8.13.11 @ 10:22PM
The primary problem with Pawlenty - and it's strictly superficial, admittedly - is he doesn't seem comfortable in his own skin. He seems ill at ease. This is especially problematic when he goes on the offensive, like, for instance, against Bachmann.
Effective republican presidents always seem comfortable in their own skin, e.g., Ronald Reagan, GW Bush, and Dwight David Eisenhower.
Ill at ease: Nixon. Ford, George HW Bush.
Ted Agnew| 8.13.11 @ 11:05PM
Yeah, what an insane lunatic idiot Paul is. If only he understood the brilliant nuance of wars without end and nation building. If only he understood that life is lived via term paper.
Solo| 8.13.11 @ 11:19PM
"We're going to make Barack Obama a ONE TERM PRESIDENT!!"
Whew! Gave me chills.
On a serious note:
Rick Perry is now officially in the race!
Solo| 8.13.11 @ 11:20PM
"Yeah, what an insane lunatic idiot Paul is. If only he understood the brilliant nuance of wars without end and nation building. If only he understood that life is lived via term paper."
Yeah...and if he only understood that our national interests are not defined by our geographic borders.
Clint| 8.14.11 @ 5:03AM
Dr.Ron Paul,
“Our military’s purpose is to defend our country, not to police the
Middle East.
“As the President prepares to send even more support to Egypt, we should
be reminded that it was our foreign aid that helped Mubarak retain power
to repress his people in the first place. Now we have to deal with the
consequences of those decisions, yet we keep repeating the same mistakes.
“I am not the only one who can see the absurdities of our foreign
policy. We give $3 billion to Israel and $12 billion to her enemies.
Most Americans know that makes no sense.
“We need to come to our senses, trade with our friends in the Middle
East (both Arab and Israeli), clean up our own economic mess so we set a
good example, and allow them to work out their own conflicts.”
The Tea Party Rebellion Is Here.
Carpe Diem.
Hook| 8.13.11 @ 11:28PM
It is interesting how the Democrat's and the media (same difference so to speak) are interpreting this.
They are saying that the extreme right ie Bachmann (socially I guess) and Paul (domestically) have taken over the party.
With a media that had a scintilla of integrity, it would be pointed out that the DEM party is the exreme party with an incompetent Socialist as its leader.
somnolence| 8.13.11 @ 11:39PM
If I had to bet money right now it will be Bachmann/Perry.
somnolence| 8.13.11 @ 11:42PM
Neither Rubio or West will be a VP candidate next year. Give that dream up as they both need to fulfill their congressional obligations. Don't rule out Cain or Santorum as one though. It will be President Bachmann come January 2013.
Bob Grant| 8.13.11 @ 11:48PM
Santorum would be an outstanding VP choice. He's got tons of landmark legislative experience which would be invaluable to a VP trying to push a president's agenda through congress. He has a history of "reaching across the aisle" and is very well spoken.
Think VP Al Gore without the douchebagginess.
John Roberts | 8.13.11 @ 11:56PM
Why is it so difficult for some to realize that Ron Paul doesn't believe he, as President, can unilaterally, attack Iran for trying to develop nuclear weapons? If congress wants to declare war and stop a threat from another country fine.
And as far as the radical lunatic fringe, I'm sure Ron Paul is quite happy being called the same names as Samuel Adams, Thomas Paine, Patrick Henry, Barry Goldwater and Reagan circa 1976. And so am I. Without the radicals nothing would ever change!
burt| 8.14.11 @ 12:03AM
Rubio on the ticket would send the Dem- Soros-Billionaires party screaming in fear. He is tough act to follow and Joe Biden would be reduced to peanut shells in any debate.
The latin vote would move away the Soros -Billionaire party's feet.
Perry or Palin would be a nice combo with Rubio.
No wonder Axelrod has activated his astroturf interet teams all over the conservative sites.
Look for a anti-Perry /"concerned phony conservative poster " on all conservative websites on a hourly basis. The Obamabots have been activated !
Brillant idea.
Pelligrino| 8.14.11 @ 12:07AM
Where are the good statisticians when you need them?
I count roughly 17,000 voters/participants in this straw poll. Okay, not bad for a warm Saturday afternoon? Rather shabby, I would say.
After all, the State Fair is in full swing.
But...statistically important in any way?
No way.
Boy, we're crazy on a number of levels. (Crazy if we lend any import to these meager Saturday August 13, 2011 results)
Just add up the number of times these candidates and their staffers have crisscrossed various cities and counties in Iowa in the last 3- 4 months.
A lot of expense and sweat equity for 1,000 or just 2,500 or even 5,000 votes.
And what would those couple thousand votes really mean? Somehow I think we don't get any useful analysis of this because the media wants/loves/needs these polls, faux news stories, faux events, etc. (money, money, money)
I do not wish to demean what Iowans have as a tradition approx. 6 full months before the primaries begin. However, I sincerely wish it kept in perspective.
Pelligrino| 8.14.11 @ 12:26AM
I confess I am paying closer attention to this Iowa late summer event for the first time. So I apologize if I am missing something important that I do not understand about the Iowa Straw Poll.
However, how can anyone ascribe any real important to something where an individual must pay $30.00 for the privilege of making a vote? And one needn't be a registered Republican; one can be an out of state college student and participate.
[Surely there are about 500 - 800 local dedicated Demoncrats who have planned long in advance to plunk down their $30 just so they can skew/monkey with results.]
The basics of the Iowa Straw Poll format (info from Wikipedia are below -- yes, I know what can be a dubious source) are below. You decide. I think that the Iowa GOP has cornered/snookered the market on the best way to do superb state-wide fundraising.
The format:
The poll takes place among attendees of a fundraising dinner benefiting the Iowa Republican Party. Before the vote, each candidate is given a chance to make a short speech to the attendees.
The poll has been described as a cross between a political convention and a county fair, where Iowa voters have a chance to mingle, eat barbecue and have a little fun. The party divides the venue into sections and auctions each to the candidates, who can then set up booths to present their case to the voters. The larger areas and those closest to the entrance often fetch the highest price. In 2011 bidding started at $15,000 and ranged to as high as $31,000 (bid by Ron Paul).
Non-Republicans are allowed to vote in the Ames Straw Poll. However, all voters must be at least 16 1/2 years of age, be legal residents of the state of Iowa or a student attending an Iowa university/college, and purchase a ticket priced at $30, however some campaigns pay the fee for their supporters. Voters have their hands stamped or their thumbs dipped in ink when entering the voting area so that they cannot vote twice. Ballots are put into electronic voting machines.
Criticisms:
If candidates political "machines" can buy that $30.oo meal ticket for a participant, then this is no better than something the USSR would do.
The poll has been criticized for heavily favoring better-funded candidates, as better-funded candidates are able to afford transportation costs to bus in more supporters and to reimburse those supporters for meal tickets.
Commendation: The finger dye on the thumb! Superb! Just like we've done in Iraq and Afghanistan. Until we do this in America in all primaries and general elections, we will still have 5 - 18% voter fraud in EVERY election.
Clint| 8.14.11 @ 4:55AM
Perspective:
We Tea Party Patriots Beat Your GOP Ruling Elite Fop Asses Off.
The Tea Party Rebellion Is Here.
Carpe Diem.
Jack in Wi.| 8.14.11 @ 11:00AM
The Iowa straw poll already cleared out some of the deadwood. Santorum, Cain, Pawlenty, Huntsman and Gingrich are essentily finished. It is down to Dr. Paul, Mrs. Bachman, Willard Romney, and Rick Perry. I think these four could go on for a long time, at least through the first primaries.
John Roberts | 8.14.11 @ 12:12AM
Pelligrino, the first or second place finisher at the Ames Straw Poll has won the Iowa Caucuses every time since 1979. That's rather significant and note worthy for the media to cover.
Pelligrino| 8.14.11 @ 1:37AM
Mr. Roberts, while what you write is true, please let's factor in several key things:
1. 1979 sounds like a long time ago. But these 32 years Iowa Straw Polls have only occured 5 times prior to yesterday's 6th. (Again, I think that real statisticians and mathematicians would have a 'field day' with MSM conclusions about the gravity of this Straw Poll) And this Ames event has significantly changed since the first two.
2. 16,674 is a low turnout -- my emphasis -- for what ought to be a year of riled up GOP/conservative consternation, certainly in year 2011.
3. Ames sits in Story County, a county with a y population of just under 90,000 (2010 Census). Less than 16,800 voters is a triffling (as there were Democrats in the mix and surely some out-of-state college kids who gladly enjoyed their $30.00 "gift card" free dinner.
4. They appear to keep tinkering with the means and rules to do this Iowa Straw Poll. Nothing wrong with that. But that shows flaws. So we give it too much attention as they try to get the balloting fair.
5. Could it be that less than 3.3% of the registered Republicans in Iowa actually voted in the Ames Straw Poll 2011?
What I would not want to see: The grossly negligent attacks/focus by the MSM/lame street press that might force a lower performing candidate in Ames yesterday to drop out now (it has happened before; candidates have dropped after this Iowa Straw Poll)
Perspective: Less than 17,000 voted in a state that has approximately 2.1 million adults old enough to vote in November 2012. That should mean at least 475,000 registered Republicans (or those with closer ties to the GOP) in Iowa; those who would potentially participate in the 2012 Iowa Caucus.
Iowa's just over 3 million population ranks 30th (US Census) of our 50 US States; means 29 other states have more citizens/voters.
Your state is probably one of those 29 larger population states? (When does your state fall in the primaries sequence?)
Perspective.
This result yesterday might mean something for how the 2012 Iowa Caucus should turn out; it ought to mean very, very little for how Americans in the GOP/conservatives/Tea Partiers will vote in primaries that stretch from February to June.
Please, unless I am off my rocker completely (just could be), these results in Ames ought to be nearly irrelevant for the nation.
Why the emphasis/tendency to (very improperly) extrapolate these results to the rest of the nation?
Or?
Richard Baker| 8.14.11 @ 6:53AM
My eyes start to glaze over when Pawlenty speaks. A dynamic speaker he ain't.
Ted Agnew| 8.14.11 @ 10:06AM
Ron Paul is the Barry Goldwater of 2012. Perhaps his son will be the Ronald Reagan of this exciting movement.
Margie| 8.14.11 @ 12:39PM
Which Barry Goldwater? The early one, or the later insane one?
Clint| 8.14.11 @ 10:21AM
Dr.Ron Paul Is Dr. Ron Paul.
Aaaaand, Ronald Reagan Endorsed Dr.Ron Paul & Dr.Ron Paul Was One Of Only Four Republicans To Endorse Ronald Reagan Against Gerald Ford In 1976.
The Tea Party Rebellion Is Here.
Carpe Diem.
Oldefarte| 8.14.11 @ 2:05PM
Which one will dramatically challange Obama/Democrats? Whoever does so will get my vote!!!!!!!!!!!
ProfBob| 8.15.11 @ 4:33AM
The libertarian idea is based on freedom. But as most political philosophers know, freedom and equality are mutually exclusive. While both want “equality of opportunity” those who want freedom want to stop there and let people run their economic race. Those who want equality want to level those who did not do well in the race--whether because of genetics, laziness or a lack of preparation and education. An interesting prediction of a society that is libertarian is found in Book 9 of the free e-book series that deals with many of our world's social problems "And Gulliver Returns"--In Search of Utopia-- at http://amdgulliverreturns.info. If nothing else, it makes us think about both liberty and equality.