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The Spectacle Blog
The Ames straw poll will be the first big event of the 2012 presidential election cycle, even with Mitt Romney sitting it out and Rick Perry just declaring his candidacy. It is the single best opportunity for candidates not named Romney or Perry to break out. With that in mind, here are a few thoughts.
1. Tim Pawlenty — I don’t like his chances tomorrow, but he does have two things going for him. One is that he arguably has the best campaign operation in Iowa. Organization counts for a lot in straw polls. The second is that expectations for him are now so low that a narrow victory, and maybe even a strong second place showing, will be seen as a major coup. Even three months ago, anything less than a Pawlenty landslide would have been considered a failure.
2. Michele Bachmann — Bachmann is well positioned to win the straw poll, since scientific polls show her to be the most popular candidate among the Iowa Republicans who will turn out for the caucuses and Romney is skipping the event. But we don’t know how good her organization is, and Ames is first and foremost a test of organizational strength. Could Pawlenty — or someone else — out-hustle her ground troops?
3. Ron Paul — That “someone else” would most likely be Paul. He has devoted a lot of resources to the straw poll this year and he and his son, Sen. Rand Paul, have been a near-constant presence in Iowa this week. His Iowa operation is being run by Drew Ivers, who superintended second-place showings in the caucuses by Pat Robertson in 1988 and Pat Buchanan in 1996. But Paul is to some extent damned if he does and damned if he doesn’t. Even if he finishes first, pundits will write it off by saying he always wins straw polls. If he finishes outside the top three, it will be a disappointment considering the investment he’s made there. A strong showing would represent progress for Paul, however: it would show that he can build an organization within a single state and use it to turn out voters. Despite his strong national following, he failed to demonstrate that in 2008.
4. Herman Cain — Just a few months ago, it looked like Herman Cain could win it. He still may well be a factor. But he’s been upstaged by Michele Bachmann, his Iowa organization has been in a state of flux, and he’s not getting as much organizational support from the Fair Tax crowd as Mike Huckabee did. All that being said, Cain is a candidate worth watching.
5. Newt Gingrich — What about the other Georgian in the race? The former House speaker’s presidential campaign has so far been a disaster, despite solid debate performances. He’ll need a strong showing to keep afloat. Let’s see if he can surprise.
6. Rick Santorum — Social conservatives do well in Iowa. Robertson and Buchanan came in second in the caucuses, Alan Keyes came in third, and Huckabee won outright. While he’ll be splitting the social conservative vote with Bachmann, this is an opportunity for Santorum.
7. Thaddeus McCotter — McCotter’s quixotic campaign has taken a bit of a hit since he hasn’t been allowed to showcase his dry wit in the debates. But he did buy the second-best plot at Ames (Paul was the top bidder). Let’s see if that pays off for him.
View all comments (20) | Leave a comment
More Blog Posts by W. James Antle, III
http://spectator.org/blog/2011/08/12/thinking-about-ames
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Clint| 8.12.11 @ 12:06PM
Two Of Our Tea Party Presidential Candidates Are In The Top Three In Iowa.
"In the Iowa caucus race for the Republican presidential nomination, five candidates are in double digits, and many voters are open to changing their mind before caucus day arrives.
The first Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Iowa’s Likely Caucus Participants shows that Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann attracts 22% support, while former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney earn 21%. Just slightly behind is Texas Congressman Ron Paul at 16%."
The Tea Party Rebellion Is In Iowa.
Rise Up.
Koocasi Luapnor| 8.12.11 @ 12:44PM
Ron Paul thinks we shouldn't care if Iran has missiles with nuclear warheads. That's whackier than the stuff most liberals manage to come up with! That's just absolute NUTS!
There's only one thing Paul has in common with Bachmann, and that's that they're both unelectable. Okay two things, they both sometimes have the crazy eyes.
You'll never hear Bachmann suggesting that it's no big deal for Islamic nations to have missiles with nuclear warheads. You'll never sell that bit of lunacy to anyone in the Tea Party. Stop trying to hitch Ron Paul's wagon to Bachmann's mule.
Clint| 8.12.11 @ 1:01PM
Our Tea Party Patriots Mission Statement Says Nothing About Iran.
The Anti-Tea Party Propagandists Have Attempted To Smear Up & Marginalize We Tea Party Patriots & All Of Our Candidates.
We Have Dealt With It & Will Deal With It.
The Tea Party Rebellion Is In Iowa.
Watch & Learn.
James | 8.12.11 @ 1:30PM
LOL you realize that Paul STARTED the Tea Parties back in '07 right? His was the first, go ahead and check YouTube.
Bachmann learned what she knows because of her attendance to Paul's weekly lunches and lectures. For instance, http://washingtonindependent.c.....p-converts from back in '09 when Bachmann was spending her time learning from Paul. To quote, "Bachmann “goes to these luncheons on a weekly basis,” said Debbee Keller, Bachmann’s press secretary. "
As well as: "Paul didn’t take credit for turning Bachmann on to Austrian theory (“He’ll give credit to everyone on the planet except himself,” laughed Woods) but said he was pleased to see more members of Congress delving into economics. “She’s very open to studying,” said Paul. “In fact, she’s been working really hard to get me back to Minneapolis. She says, ‘You’ll get such a great reception there!’”"
Yes, that's Bachmann, hitching her wagon to Paul's ideology.
Nice try attempting to sound knowledgeable though.
James
Kookasi Luapnor| 8.12.11 @ 2:29PM
Whatever Paul started in 2007, even if he used the words "Tea Party," it bears no resemblance to the actual Tea Party today.
Ron Paul thinks it's just fine for Iran to have missiles nuclear warheads. No genuine Tea Party group, or sane human being for that matter, would endorse such a thing. Ron Paul went so far off the rails on that one he out-crazied the liberals.
Clint| 8.12.11 @ 5:54PM
Former CIA bin Laden Desk Director Michael Scheuer,
" On Iran, The President should:
1.) Explain to the American people that Iran is no threat to the United States unless we or Israel attack it first, and then it would be a serious threat to U.S. access to energy and would likely stage terrorist operations in the continental United States. [The last thanks to 30-years of federal immigration policies that leave us without knowledge of who is in the country or what they are capable of doing."
Alan Brooks| 8.12.11 @ 4:40PM
"Boy, it sure burns me to have a national holiday for Martin Luther King. I voted against this outrage time and time again as a Congressman. What an infamy that Ronald Reagan approved it! We can thank him for our annual Hate Whitey Day."
Solo| 8.12.11 @ 12:26PM
I predict...
1) Michelle Bachman (popularity factor)
2) Ron Paul (Lots of drooling zealots ready to game the straw poll at all costs--good organization on the ground)
3) Herman Cain (Good Christian credentials and social conservative--flat tax policy very popular)
4) Rick Santorum (Good policy guy who seems well grounded--gets "honorable mention")
5) Tim Pawlenty (Long term exposure within the state but..no cigar).
Last place will go to Newt Gingrich. He's the best policy candidate of the bunch and probably best prepared to solve the country's problems (from a legislative point of view) but not reliably conservative and not at all a "values" candidate.
Huntsman will be right there with him and he's neither conservative nor does he have a plan.
Occam's Tool| 8.12.11 @ 12:43PM
The Traitor Ron Paul is going to be destroyed by the true American Bachmann. Cwint will cwy.
James | 8.12.11 @ 1:31PM
Again, you realize that what Bachmann knows, she learned from Paul right?
http://washingtonindependent.c.....p-converts
Enjoy
Kookasi Luapnor| 8.12.11 @ 2:38PM
Did she learn from Paul that it's a good idea to let Iran put nuclear warhead on its missiles?
Clint| 8.12.11 @ 5:58PM
Former CIA bin Laden Desk Director Michael Scheuer,
" On Iran, The President should:
2.) Publicly state that there will be no U.S. surprise attack on Iran, and no U.S. attack at all on Iran unless the president asks for a formal declaration of war and the Congress votes its approval in a constitutional manner.
Clint| 8.12.11 @ 12:57PM
Uh Oh !
The Screwball Israel Firster Neo-Chickenhawk Coward Traitor Bastard,Tool Job Is In The Building
CIA's Michael Scheuer,
"And then there is Iran. How does one explain the U.S. governing elite's fear of Iran? Here we have a country that admittedly is led by one of the world's more histrionic politicians, but one that also is ringed by U.S. military bases and surrounded by an overwhelmingly more numerous Sunni world that hates Shi'ites far more than it hates Westerners. Iran‘s Islamic regime, moreover, is helplessly watching the final stages of the march of its energy resources toward oblivion, and preparing for the impoverishment and resulting internal political instability that event will usher in. "
Michael F. Scheuer is a former CIA intelligence officer, American blogger, historian, foreign policy critic, and political analyst. He is currently an adjunct professor at Georgetown University's Center for Peace and Security Studies. In his 22-year career, he served as the Chief of the Bin Laden Issue Station (aka "Alec Station"), from 1996 to 1999, the Osama bin Laden tracking unit at the Counterterrorist Center. He then worked again as Special Advisor to the Chief of the bin Laden unit from September 2001 to November 2004.
The Tea Party Rebellion Is In Iowa.
Rise Up.
JimH| 8.12.11 @ 1:12PM
I'm sorry. I think I try to keep informed, but Thaddeus who?
Butch | 8.12.11 @ 4:49PM
He is a congressman from Michigan. Fox has a middle-of-the-night show that my two Rush-baby daughters record and watch--It's called "Red Eye," I think, and it is hosted by Greg Gutman or Gutfield. He is apparently interesting and entertaining, and the host puts him on a lot. He is profiled in the current paper edition of either NR or TAS. I can't remember which right now, I subscribe to both. Fox wouldn't let him debate because he didn't have one percent in some survey they used to determine who could participate.
JimBob39| 8.12.11 @ 9:06PM
You would do well to learn about Congressman Thaddeus McCotter of Michigan. Unfortunately, he has not been able to get noticed by the media. He is very intelligent, conservative, knowlegable about all the issues, and thinks fast on his feet. Check out his C-Span interview on YouTube or other YouTube videos. I am very impressed by him and think that you wiil be too.
JimBob39| 8.12.11 @ 9:45PM
Correction. The C-Span interview is on C-Span.org not YouTube.
Oldefarte| 8.12.11 @ 5:45PM
Using insults does not win arguments. Also copy/paste/quptations are helpful in reinforcing an argument, but you first have to make/explain your own argument!!!!